CFP National Championship Best Prop Bets: Miami vs Indiana

The 2025-26 College Football Playoff National Championship has finally arrived, and incidentally, there are quality betting opportunities all around the board. We’ve got you covered!

Where to Watch College Football Playoff National Championship: Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium
Location: Miami Gardens, FL
Where to Watch: ESPN
Time: Monday (January 19), 7:30 p.m. ET

Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers Betting Odds

Spread: MIA +7.5 (-106) | IU -7.5 (-114)
Total: Over 47.5 (-112) | Under (-108)
Moneyline: MIA +250 | IU -310

Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers Kalshi Odds

Chance: MIA 27% | IU 74%
Spread: IU -7.5 Yes (50¢) | No (50¢)
Total: Over 48.5 Yes (47¢) | No (53¢)

The day has finally arrived. No. 10 Miami (FL) Hurricanes (13-2) will head back home to Hard Rock Stadium, where the No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers (15-0) await.

On game day morning, Kalshi lists a 74% chance of IU winning. That seems a bit staggering, but for reference, most sportsbooks have Miami as a 7.5-point underdog.

Big Ten-champion Indiana is playing like a freight train coming down the track. Second-year head coach Curt Cignetti has the Hoosiers in uncharted territory, as IU has never won a national title in football. Cignetti knows how to light a motivational fire, which is a significant factor in why the Hoosiers are ranked second in FBS for both offensive (42.6 PPG) and defensive scoring (11.1 PPG allowed).

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy in his first year after transferring in from the California Golden Bears. Mendoza, who sports a razor-sharp 41-6 TD-INT ratio at this time, has displayed all the right moves in the College Football Playoff. Before Monday night’s title bid, the Hoosiers have outscored their postseason opponents, 94-25. This could be a storybook ending for Mendoza; he now has the opportunity to win a championship in his hometown.

Across the way, Miami head coach Mario Cristobal (another South Florida native) has earned a shot to compete for a natty at the Hurricanes’ own house. Miami has gone 7-1 in contests at Hard Rock Stadium this season. The Louisville Cardinals were the only team to defeat the Canes in Miami Gardens this season.

A bruising defensive front powers this version of Miami football. The U is allowing only 86.5 YPG on the ground right now, which lands near the top of FBS. Defensive lineman Akheem Mesidor has set the tone with 10.5 sacks and 15.5 TFL. Tonight, Mesidor and his teammates will make it their priority to disrupt Mendoza’s impeccable timing.

Per ESPN’s SP+ index, the Hoosiers are viewed as the top squad in the nation. Meanwhile, Miami lands ninth overall. From there, SportsGrid’s predictive model has IU winning by five points. That leads me to an interesting prop market at FanDuel Sportsbook: Indiana to win between one and six points (+470 odds).

Best Bet: Indiana Winning Margin 1 to 6 (+460)

Notably, Mendoza is the odds-on favorite to be named Offensive MVP in the CFP National Championship Game, but perhaps we can find better value in one of his teammates. Incidentally, I am looking at Indiana wide receiver Elijah Sarratt to win the award at +2700 odds.

Sarratt has been Mendoza’s go-to target throughout the current campaign. To this point, Sarratt, who transferred from James Madison University with Cignetti, paces the Hoosiers in both touchdown receptions (15) and receiving yards per game (61.7). He’ll have his work cut out for him going against a talented secondary from Miami, but the 6-foot-2 Sarratt can win against man and zone schemes.

Over Indiana’s past four games, Sarratt has found the end zone on five different occasions. Most recently, he carved up the Oregon Ducks in the CFP Semifinal by churning out seven catches for 75 yards and two touchdowns. Depending on how close this contest is, Sarratt will have chances to make a game-changing play. Given his exorbitant pricing of 27-to-1 here, I believe he is worth a sprinkle (or two) to win the Offensive MVP at Hard Rock Stadium tonight.