CFP National Championship Picks: Indiana vs Miami Prediction

With 715 defeats, the No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers are the losingest program in FBS history. In many ways, the two-year turnaround under Curt Cignetti is arguably the unlikeliest Cinderella story we’ve ever seen in college football.

They have evolved in Year 2, from a fun, cute story. A team that was well-coached and dominated mediocre opponents but couldn’t step up against the boys now. Now, the Big Ten Champs are the big boys of college football. The Hoosiers followed up an undefeated regular season with an upset over No. 1 Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, leading into the College Football Playoff.

From there, IU has found another level with a 38-3 thumping of No. 11 Alabama and a 56-22 thrashing of No. 5 Oregon. Their opponent is the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes, who many believed didn’t deserve a spot in the CFP by virtue of their two regular-season losses and lack of an ACC title.

Mario Cristobal’s ‘Canes have more than backed up their inclusion, and while as impressive as Indiana, Miami also comes in playing their best football with upsets at No. 7 Texas A&M in College Station and versus No. 3 Ohio State in the quarterfinals, before holding off No. 6 Ole Miss to advance to the final game. Do they have what it takes to hand the Hoosiers their first loss and win the program’s first national championship since 2001?

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Verified Sports Betting Record: 59-49 (+9 UNITS)

Heading into the National Championship, our season-long performance stands at 59-49 (+9.0 units), fueled by a 30-28 record ATS and 23-14 on Team Totals. Our most productive betting confidence, B1G Bets, has produced +3 units as we finalize our Indiana vs. Miami strategy.

Where to Watch the CFP National Championship Game Tonight?

• Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium
• Location: Miami Gardens, FL
• Where to Watch: ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, ESPNEWS, ACC Network
• Date: January 19, 2026
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

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College Football CFP Game Picks: B1G BET (1 UNIT)

Indiana -7.5 Oregon (-105 @FanDuel)

There was no chance I was going against Indiana in the National Championship Game. There’s no team I’ve backed more than the Hoosiers this season, and with a 10-5 record against the spread (19-9 going back to last season), Cignetti’s team has rewarded us more often than not.

Last season’s team was a bully who dominated inferior foes, but didn’t look the same when they stepped up in competition. The 2025 Hoosiers are different. They’re better. Indiana is 5-0 ATS against ranked teams, including wins in their past three games over Ohio State, Alabama, and Oregon.

When Indiana has the ball, it’s a strength vs. strength in the trenches. Miami is among the best in college football in yards before contact and pressure rate. But this is also as good an offensive line as the Hurricanes have faced. The left side of the O-line is elite, with left tackle Carter Smith a potential Day 2 pick in the NFL Draft, while center Pat Coogan was voted Rose Bowl MVP.

When teams have found success on the ground against Miami, it’s been thanks in large part to inconsistent tackling. Yards after contact (18th nationally) is the strength of IU’s Roman Hemby (1,007 yards, 5.2 YPC, 7 TDs) and Kaelon Black (898 yards, 5.7 YPC, 8 TDs). They are no-nonsense, physical, north-south runners who will keep coming at you for four quarters.

Designed quarterback runs, which aren’t a big part of IU’s offense, are another area that has been a weakness for the ‘Canes. While the Hoosiers haven’t used Fernando Mendoza’s legs frequently, when they have, he’s been highly successful (seventh in QB-designed runs EPA). He’s also been an elite scrambler (third in scramble EPA) when flushed out of the pocket. The ability to pick up first downs and find the end zone (six rushing touchdowns) is an underrated part of Mendoza’s game.

Through the air, he’s been elite for much of the season, and while some Heisman Trophy winners have struggled following the awards circuit, Mendoza has upped his game. He’s among the most accurate passers in college football (73 percent) with the ability to make all the throws and push the ball down the field (9.5 YPA).

With eight touchdown passes and no interceptions in two CFP games, his season totals are now 41-to-6. How good has Mendoza been in the playoffs? He has more touchdown passes than incompletions (five on 31 of 36 passing; 86.1%). The key on Monday night will be not to force passes when under pressure.

The presumptive No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft isn’t doing this all by himself. He has a ton of weapons at his disposal. A group that has gotten deeper and more diverse as the season has progressed. No. 1 WR Elijah Sarratt (62 receptions, 802 yards, 15 TDs) is the back shoulder king. Not many pass catchers are as good at making contested catches, especially in the red zone. Omar Cooper Jr. (64 receptions, 866 yards, 13 TDs), their leading receiver, is elite after the catch and also excels at finding the end zone.

The final piece to the puzzle is 6’4” sophomore Charlie Becker (30 receptions, 615 yards, 4 TDs), who brings the added dimension of a serious deep threat to the IU attack. While his overall numbers are modest, consider that he’s averaging 20.5 YYC and produced 23 receptions for 457 yards in his past six games. Against OSU, Bama, and Oregon, Becker is averaging 22.5 YPC. 

E.J. Williams (36 receptions, 438 yards, 6 TDs) is another 6’4” target, while TE Riley Nowakowski (30 receptions, 370 yards, 2 TDs) has a knack for moving the chains.

Even at 100 percent, I’m not sure Miami has the depth at corner to match up. While OJ Frederique Jr.is considered good to go, he missed most of the Ole Miss game, and Xavier Lucas is suspended for the first half (targeting) on Monday night. Another member of their four-CB rotation, Damari Brown, is less likely to suit up. If the ‘Canes have to dig deeper into their depth chart, the Hoosiers will look to exploit that, in a similar way the Rebels went to the air to get back into the semifinal game.

As much as I have confidence in Indiana’s offense, it’s their defense that really has me bullish on the Big Ten champs in this matchup.

Again, it’s strength vs. strength in the trenches. But one unit is more consistent when you look more closely. Cristobal’s offensive line finished outside the top 100 in yards before contact, compared to the Hoosiers, who are first defensively. Digging deeper into the run game, the ACC school ranks 70th in yards after contact and 122nd in missed-tackle rate. IU’s defense is 21st in yards after contact and 29th in missed-tackle rate.

No team has produced more tackles for loss (128) than Indiana. Eleven defenders have at least five TFLs, with linebackers Aiden Fisher (93 tackles), Rolijah Hardy (98 tackles), and Isaiah Jones (76 tackles) combining for a whopping 40 TFLs. This is an aggressive defense that’s best when attacking the line of scrimmage and running downhill.

The strength of Miami’s pass pro is its offensive tackles, which typically neutralize the opponent’s top pass rushers, but that’s not the case with the Hoosiers. They excel at blitzing and confusing opposing offenses. Hardy leads them with his eight sacks, followed by Jones (seven sacks), with Tyrique Tucker (six sacks) and Mario Landino (five sacks) penetrating from the inside. Don’t overlook edge rushers Mikail Kamara (sack vs. Alabama) or Daniel Ndukwe (two sacks vs. Oregon).

Miami is a methodical offense that doesn’t generate many explosive plays, and that’s a tough way to score against the Hoosiers, who are typically scheme-sound and don’t make mistakes. Against Texas A&M, they managed 10 points and 5.67 YPP (4.9 YPA), and against Ohio State, they scored 17 points (excluding the pick-six), including OSU letting them score in the final minute. Carson Beck was at 5.3 YPA, and they averaged 4.1 YPC for 4.62 yards per play. Miami was better against Ole Miss, but did you see how many tackles the Rebels missed? That’s not happening on Monday night.

I don’t believe they fully trust Beck, and I wouldn’t either against an opportunistic Indiana defense that was seventh in the nation in interceptions (18) and third in turnovers created (32). Their plus-21 turnover margin was tops in the country, and ten better than Miami’s plus-11. Again, another category that the ‘Canes are used to winning that they probably won’t in this game.

How about penalties? The Hoosiers have been penalized for 26.9 yards per game, the second fewest, compared to the Hurricanes at 57.1 YPG, 85th in the country.

Even if I concede, IU’s offensive and defensive lines versus Miami is a push. Which team has the better quarterback? Which team has the better coach? It’s hands down the Hoosiers. I like how Indiana’s pass defense matches up better against the ‘Canes, and also gives the Hoosiers a better chance to generate a running game. There’s not a single category where I give the Hurricanes the edge.

We might not have realized it until the CFP bracket was set, but Indiana has been the best team in the country all season, and they come into the National Championship Game playing their best football. They will not beat themselves; they are an attacking team on both sides of the ball without sacrificing discipline. They have the coaching and quarterback edge.

Call me a Big Ten homer, but this should be a double-digit spread against a capable but far from complete Miami squad. Lay the points and watch the Hoosiers pull away in the second half for yet another comfortable cover from Cignetti’s team, as the B1G wins its third straight College Football National Championship.

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