College Football Best Bets: Week 1 Thursday Night Top Picks and Predictions

College football is back, baby! From now until the start of December, we will be keeping a close eye on all the action, sharing our expert analysis and betting insights every week. Stay up to date with the top picks, predictions, and betting advice for all things college football.

Check out what bets we’re targeting with our Week 1 Thursday Night selections!

Where to Watch Boise State Broncos vs. South Florida Bulls

Ballpark: Raymond James Stadium
Location: Tampa, FL
Where to Watch: ESPN
Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Boise State -5.5 | Total: 62.5
Moneyline: Boise State -210 | South Florida +172

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

Fresh off their first College Football Playoff appearance in program history, the Boise State Broncos open their 2025 season with a non-conference tilt versus the South Florida Bulls. Boise State is out in front, but we believe in the Bulls at home.

Boise State has a lot of offensive production to replace. Ashton Jeanty was drafted sixth overall, putting the Broncos at an immediate disadvantage. Jeanty was responsible for close to 3,000 yards of total offense last season, representing nearly half of Boise State’s offensive production. We want to give Maddux Madsen the benefit of the doubt, but without a solid supporting cast, the outlook is guarded.

At the same time, Byrum Brown is expected to take the next step in his development. The senior quarterback accounted for over 4,000 yards of offense in 2023, and a return to that form appears to be a formality after he was limited to just five games last season.

This isn’t the same playoff team as in 2024, and that puts the Broncos at a disadvantage early in the season. Boise State has a terrible reputation for coming out of the gates slow, and we expect that to be the case in the season opener. Bettors will want to get a piece of USF on the moneyline.

Best Bet: South Florida +172

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Where to Watch Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Ballpark: Boone Pickens Stadium
Location: Stillwater, OK
Where to Watch: ESPN+
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Spread: OK State -22.5 | Total: 56.5
Moneyline: OK State -2100 | UT-Martin +1000

Defense has never been a priority for the Oklahoma State Cowboys, but that won’t be a limiting factor in Week 1’s tilt versus the Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks. This total suggests that both teams will be up to the task on defense, which isn’t the case.

The Skyhawks had a dynamic offense, and even with the departure of some of their top offensive contributors, points will be easy to come by for UT-Martin. Jase Bauer takes over under center, and he’s supported by Armoni Goodwin out of the backfield. The former LSU running back was used sparingly in 2024, but had 267 yards and five touchdowns on 45 carries with the Tigers in 2023. Settling into his new role, Goodwin will be called upon to keep the ball moving for the Skyhawks.

Freshman quarterback Hauss Hejny looks to continue the air-raid legacy for the Cowboys. The Texas native was a four-star recruit out of high school and saw game action last season. A capable runner, Hejny will have no problem distributing the ball amongst Oklahoma State’s premier weapons. However, we will count on him to use his legs and continue to gain yards on the ground.

Offense reigns supreme in this non-conference battle between the Skyhawks and Cowboys. The total reflects a more subdued performance from both squads. Still, after going 7-5 to the over in 2024, including 4-2 at Boone Pickens Stadium, bettors should anticipate another high-scoring affair.

Best Bet: Over 56.5

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