College Football Championship Weekend Predictions | Saturday Picks Today, Best Bets

The stakes in college football have never been higher. We’re into Championship Weekend, and teams are still clamoring for a prestigious bowl game and playoff position. As we know, Power Four conference champs are awarded an automatic playoff berth, but most of the eight other spots are still in play. That means the intensity only gets ratcheted higher as we speed toward an exciting conclusion of the 2024 season.

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Ohio Bobcats vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks

Spread: Ohio +2.5 (-110) | Miami (OH) -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Ohio +112 | Miami (OH) -134
Total: OVER 43.5 (-118) | UNDER 43.5 (-104)

Saturday’s slate kicks off with a pair of games in the noon time slot. One of those contests is the MAC Championship Game, pitting the Ohio Bobcats against the Miami (OH) RedHawks. The line continues to tilt in Miami’s favor, but there’s still value in backing the RedHawks at Ford Field. 

A month into the season, the RedHawks appeared dead in the water. Miami got off to a horrendous 1-4 start, plummeting to the bottom of our Group of 5 Power Rankings. However, after rattling off wins in seven straight, the RedHawks now compete for the conference title. That late-season surge was propped up with elite defensive metrics. Taking on some of the top teams in the MAC, Miami hasn’t allowed more than 12 points since the start of November. Over their past three, the RedHawks have held opponents to a paltry 227.0 yards and 9.3 points per game. 

Ohio plays with a similar defensive intensity, albeit less effectively. The Bobcats give up more points and yards than the RedHawks and are also trending in the opposite direction. Ohio gave up 375 yards to the 3-9 Ball State Cardinals last time, with its secondary getting exposed for 333 passing yards. That plays into Brett Gabbert‘s strength as a passer. Over his previous four outings, the RedHawks quarterback is averaging 220.8 passing yards per game with multiple touchdown passes in all but one of those contests. 

When these teams met in Week 8, Miami walked away with a convincing 30-20 win. A similar outcome is expected on Saturday afternoon. While their winning margin might not reach double digits, we expect the RedHawks to cover -2.5.

Recommended Play: Miami (OH) -2.5 -110

2024 Group of 5 Power Rankings | Week 15 of College Football Season

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns

Spread: Georgia +2.5 (-102) | Texas -2.5 (-120)
Moneyline: Georgia +122 | Texas -146
Total: OVER 49.5 (-115) | UNDER 49.5 (-105)

Bettors are lining up to get a piece of the Texas Longhorns on a diminished spread and moneyline price in the pivotal SEC Championship Game. The Longhorns are up to -146 to win outright and are currently listed at -120 to cover -2.5. Still, that only strengthens the value in backing the Georgia Bulldogs as live underdogs in what should feel like a home game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

While they’ve looked uninspired at times this season, we trust Georgia’s pedigree in the SEC final. Carson Beck hasn’t thrown for less than 297 yards since Week 11 and is averaging 285.8 passing yards per game—naturally, Beck’s improved efficiency correlates with improved Bulldogs’ scoring. Georgia is up to 469.7 yards and 44.7 points per game over its past three. Granted, that includes last week’s eight-overtime win over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Still, the Bulldogs have recorded fewer than 30 points twice this season. 

The key to claiming their second SEC Championship in three years will be corraling the Longhorns’ offense. Surprisingly, that’s been an area of concern for Texas in the latter stages of the campaign. Once the mightiest offense in college football, the Longhorns’ stock has tumbled lately. Their scoring average is down to 22.7 points per game over their last three. More concerningly, their production has fallen from 465.1 yards per game through their first nine to 404.7 across the same three-game sample. 

Texas is getting in their way, putting the Longhorns at a sincere disadvantage against the Bulldogs. Carson Beck knows what it takes to win, and he’ll be up to the challenge with the Georgia faithful back in Atlanta. Taking them against the spread is safer, but we’re backing Georgia to pull off the outright upset on Saturday.

Recommended Play: Georgia Moneyline +122

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Clemson Tigers vs. SMU Mustangs

Spread: Clemson +2.5 (-108) | SMU -2.5 (-112)
Moneyline: Clemson +114 | SMU -137
Total: OVER 55.5 (-105) | UNDER 55.5 (-115)

The SMU Mustangs have quietly asserted themselves as playoff contenders. An 11-1 run through the 2024 regular season, including a perfect conference record, has landed the Mustangs a spot in the ACC Championship Game versus the Clemson Tigers. SMU’s sterling run won’t come to an end in Week 15. 

The Mustangs’ offense has been incredibly efficient, extracting maximum value from their ground game and aerial assault. Kevin Jennings has thrown the ball to a plethora of top pass-catching options. SMU features five receivers with at least 24 receptions this season, and eight different players have recorded at least 261 receiving yards. With Brashard Smith totaling 1,157 rushing yards out of the backfield, there’s been no stopping SMU’s unrelenting attack. 

Over their more recent schedule, the Mustangs’ defense has looked even more impressive. Their past three opponents have combined for just 281.3 yards and 13.7 points per game. The Tigers will have difficulty moving the ball against their ACC counterparts, given their recent struggles. Clemson has dropped two of its past five, failing to eclipse 24 points against any of their FBS opponents. 

The betting market continues to undervalue SMU. Even in what should be a Clemson-friendly stadium, we expect the Mustangs to prevail.

Recommended Play: SMU -2.5 -112

Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Oregon Ducks

Spread: Penn State +3.5 (-118) | Oregon -3.5 (-104)
Moneyline: Penn State +136 | Oregon -164
Total: OVER 50.5 (-106) | UNDER 50.5 (-114)

Inarguably, Saturday’s finale between the Penn State Nittany Lions and Oregon Ducks will prove to be the most entertaining contest of the day. These teams rank third and first, respectively, in the College Football Playoff rankings, meaning the victor in the Big Ten Championship Game has the inside track for becoming the top seed in the 12-team field. 

Penn State’s defense has earned most of the laudation this season, but don’t lose sight of their offensive abilities. The Nittany Lions have the 16th-ranked total offense in the country, averaging 442.8 yards per game against FBS opponents. Moreover, their scoring efficiency has gone through the roof lately, with Penn State up to nearly 40.0 points per game over its last three. 

Unfortunately for Ducks fans, Oregon is trending in the opposite direction. They’ve seen a marked decrease in their production, dropping to 391.7 yards per game over their past three. However, that limited production hasn’t had an impact on scoring. Oregon is hovering around their usual scoring average despite averaging almost 60 fewer yards per game. That puts them on an inevitable path with regression, as output balances with production. 

That anticipated correction will come against a fierce Penn State defense. We’re throwing everything against the wall in Championship Weekend, backing the Nittany Lions to upset the Ducks straight up at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Recommended Play: Penn State +136

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