College Football Week 7 Picks: Friday Night Lights Best Bets
Grant White
Host · Writer
College football is back, baby! From now until the start of December, we will be keeping a close eye on all the action, sharing our expert analysis and betting insights every week. Stay up to date with the top picks, predictions, and betting advice for all things college football.
Check out what bets we’re targeting with our Week 7 selections!
Where to Watch (24) South Florida Bulls vs. North Texas Mean Green
- Stadium: DATCU Stadium
- Location: Denton, TX
- Where to Watch: ESPN2
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Spread: UNT -1.5 | Total: 66.5
- Moneyline: UNT -120 | USF +100
Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.
The 12th playoff seed could very well be on the line tonight, when the North Texas Mean Green host the South Florida Bulls. The top five-ranked conference winners are guaranteed a playoff spot, and both the Bulls and Mean Green are looking to bolster their resumes ahead of the playoff push.
USF and UNT have similar profiles. Both teams can move the ball offensively, but are more than capable of slowing down opponents on the defensive side of the ball. South Florida ranks 32nd in total offense and 34th in scoring offense, with the Mean Green coming in at 37th and eighth, respectively. Likewise, North Texas’s 38th-ranked total defense and 42nd-ranked scoring defense are slightly better than the Bulls’ respective rankings of 86th and 61st. Still, there’s a substantive gap between those metrics when adjusted for opponent.
North Texas’s marquee win this season came against 3-2 Washington State. Otherwise, they’ve defeated the bottom of the pack Group of Five teams and an FCS foe. Conversely, South Florida has two signature wins over Boise State and Florida State, with their defensive metrics skewed by a loss to now second-ranked Miami (FL).
The betting market has taken a stance on the Mean Green, but we like South Florida’s chances of pulling off the upset. The Bulls have contained superior opponents than North Texas, and they should flaunt that defensive acumen en route to the win.
Best Bet: South Florida +100
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Where to Watch Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Colorado State Rams
- Stadium: Sonny Lubick Field at Canvas Stadium
- Location: Fort Collins, CO
- Where to Watch: CBSSN
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: FRES -6.5 | Total: 47.5
- Moneyline: FRES -230 | CSU +195
Depending on how things shake out in the American Athletic Conference, the Fresno State Bulldogs are another Group of 5 squad that could potentially challenge for the 12th seed in the CFP. The Bulldogs continue their ascent with a Week 7 clash versus the Colorado State Rams.
Fresno State is one of the most efficient defenses in the country. Currently, they’ve compiled the 29th-ranked total defense, limiting opponents to a paltry 308.2 yards per game. Predictably, that correlates with a stout 19.5 points per game. This team is more than capable of shutting opponents down, giving up just 188.7 passing yards and 110.0 rushing yards per game. Moreover, they’ve contained their challengers when they need to most, allowing a 40.7% third-down conversion rate.
The Rams will struggle to break through those defensive forces from start to finish. Colorado State struggles to move the ball with consistency, compiling 346.4 yards per game, which ranks 104th in the country. Their defensive standard is equally abysmal. Opponents are churning out close to 400 yards per game, yielding 27.4 points per game.
While they aren’t renowned for their elite offensive standards, Fresno State is more than capable of moving the ball against the Rams. CSU continues to get burned on the ground, playing into the Bulldogs’ premier rushing attack. Expect Fresno State to build an early lead and then coast to victory.
Best Bet: Fresno State -6.5
Where to Watch Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Washington Huskies
- Stadium: Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium
- Location: Seattle, WA
- Where to Watch: FOX Sports 1
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: WASH -10.5 | Total: 60.5
- Moneyline: WASH -400 | RUT +300
Two Big Ten schools are hoping to improve their position in the conference standings when they take to the field on Friday night. Sitting at 1-1 in Big Ten play and 4-1 overall, the Washington Huskies are looking to dispatch the 3-2 (0-2) Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Husky Stadium in the Emerald City.
Rutgers got off to a hot start, winning its first three games of the season while averaging 46.3 points per game on offense. However, things took a turn for the worse in conference play. The Scarlet Knights have been unable to contain their Big Ten brethren, getting lit up for an average of 34.5 points per game. That standard is unlikely to change against a fierce Washington squad.
The Huskies have steamrolled opponents on offense. Through five games, they’re averaging 234.4 passing and 191.2 rushing yards, contributing to the 31st-ranked total offense in the country. More impressively, they’ve used that offensive advantage to put up 39.4 points per game, while eclipsing that benchmark in two of three home games.
Rutgers’ passing game is its only advantage, and the Scarlet Knights can use that to poke holes in the Huskies’ secondary. But at the end of the night, we’ll see that they just won’t be able to do enough defensively to slow down the Huskies. Our favorite play is the over, but some bettors may see value in laying the points with the hosts.
Best Bet: Over 60.5
College Football Week 7 Picks: Friday Night Lights Best Bets
- South Florida +100
- Fresno State -6.5
- RUT-WASH Over 60.5
We’ve got three plays lined up for tonight’s three-game slate. We like South Florida to pull off the upset against North Texas, Fresno State to cover as road chalk, and Rutgers-Washington to go over the posted total.
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