Deciphering the Big 12 Championship Game Scenarios

A few weeks ago, none of this seemed possible. But after Week 13’s absurd results, the Big 12 was left in disarray. So much so that the Big 12 brain trust sent a memo late on Saturday night outlining the potential scenarios that could impact this year’s Championship Game participants.

While some details were spared from the 256 potential outcomes, we’re boiling it down to its simplest terms. 

Who’s Still In?

Nine programs still have a viable path to the Big 12 Championship Game. The Arizona State Sun Devils, BYU Cougars, Iowa State Cyclones, and Colorado Buffaloes are tied with 6-2 records. That leaves the Baylor Bears, Kansas State Wildcats, TCU Horned Frogs, Texas Tech Red Raiders, and West Virginia Mountaineers as the 5-3 teams still in the running. 

What About the 6-2 Teams?

The schedule does the 6-2 teams no favors in Week 14. All four teams match up against different foes, meaning all four could end up with identical 7-2 records. This week, ASU is the lone road team, traveling for an in-state rivalry game against the Arizona Wildcats. BYU, Iowa State, and Colorado host the Houston Cougars, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State Cowboys. 

12-Team College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions Going Into Week 14

How Do 5-3 Teams Have a Shot?

For any three-loss team to have a shot at the Big 12 Championship Game, all four two-loss teams must suffer defeat in Week 14. From there, we would cover every part of the 256 scenarios to determine which teams advance. 

In short, the tiebreakers come down to records versus “common opponents." That means all the contenders’ championship destinies are tied to this week’s outcomes.

Which Teams Are Eliminated With a Loss?

Any of the three-loss teams are eliminated with a defeat in Week 14. Of those nine programs, only two play each other this week. The West Virginia Mountaineers travel to Lubbock for a date with the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Otherwise, if every other three-loss team wins and a two-loss team loses, we could have an eight-way tie atop the Big 12 standings. 

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What Happens if All Four 5-2 Teams Win in Week 14?

This would be a nightmare scenario for the Big 12. Conceivably, the Sun Devils and Cyclones could both win but still miss out on the Big 12 Championship Game. The “common opponent" thread would weave its way into Week 14’s outcomes, playing a factor in which teams advance.

It’s impossible to cover that ground without dissecting every possible outcome of Week 14’s schedule. A loss versus an inferior opponent would hurt a team’s chances more than a win against a contender helps.

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Which Teams Have the Best Chance of Playing in the Big 12 Championship Game?

According to the betting odds, Arizona State and Iowa State have the best chance of playing in Week 15. FanDuel Sportsbook has the Sun Devils’ priced as the odds-on favorite to win the Big 12, currently listed at +135. The Cyclones are close behind, priced at +200 to win the conference. From there, it goes BYU (+320), Colorado (+600), Baylor and Kansas State at +12000, Texas Tech and TCU at +15000, and West Virginia at a distant +40000.

Still A Lot To Be Determined

Suffice it to say, there’s a lot on the line in Week 14. The simplest scenario would be two teams finishing with identical 7-2 conference records and the rest battling it out for bowl game berths. However, if the unthinkable happens and we have an eight-way tie for first place, you can expect another late-night memo from the Big 12 next week. 

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