Predicting the Outcome of the 8 Big Ten Games in Week 13: Will Indiana Upset Ohio State?

10:30 PM ET | USC (5-5, 3-5) @ UCLA (4-6, 3-5) | NBC

Spread: USC -4.5 | Total: 51.5

It’s the Big Ten after dark, and I am here for it!

For starters, it is arguably the best uniform game in college football. Regardless of where the game is played, it’s USC’s Cardinal jerseys against UCLA’s blue (think sky blue). There’s also a lot on the line, as both programs can still clinch bowl eligibility, and the loser is in trouble.

It’s still possible the Trojans finish 7-5 and the Bruins 4-8, but we could also see Deshaun Foster lead his team to a bowl game in Year 1, while Lincoln Riley misses a bowl game for the first time as a head coach. If UCLA pulls off the minor upset at home, you can argue scenario two is likely.

Who saw that coming when USC was ranked No. 11 (3-1) in the country and talked up as a playoff contender while UCLA was in the midst of a five-game losing streak and considered one of the laughingstocks in college football?

The Trojans have been the better team throughout the season, with a far superior offense (13th in yards per play vs. 100th) and even a slightly better defense (49th in yards per play vs. 62nd). However, the teams are trending in opposite directions: USC has lost four of six, and UCLA has won three of four.

Throw all of that out for this rivalry game.

Score: USC 27, UCLA 26

Noon ET | No. 5 Indiana (10-0, 7-0) No. 2 Ohio State (9-1, 6-1) | FOX

Spread: Ohio State -13.5 | Total: 51.5

This is the game of the day in the Big Ten and the game of the day in college football. It’s the third B1G conference game featuring two top-five teams, and all three involved Ohio State. The Buckeyes lost at Oregon and beat Penn State in Happy Valley. Now they get to play the host with upstart Indiana coming to Columbus.

The Buckeyes are the favorite to win the National Championship (+320) and the Big Ten (-105), but don’t count the Hoosiers out, who are third (behind OSU and Oregon) to end up as the No. 1 overall seed (+1100). And unlike Ohio State, IU can finish the regular season undefeated (+400).

While OSU has been tested, there has been an uproar regarding Indiana’s status as a CFP team. Who have the Hoosiers beaten? They have won one game over a team with a winning record (6-5 Washington) and had to hold on to beat the worst Michigan team since before Jim Harbaugh returned to Ann Arbor. They’ve also won their first nine games by at least 14 points. Both things are true. Is it who you play or how you play?

Statistically, these teams are pretty even, but no one outside of Bloomington believes that IU is equal to OSU. The recruiting rankings and NFL Draft scouting reports indicate a mismatch in favor of the Buckeyes. There’s probably no player on Indiana’s team that Ohio State wanted as a recruit or transfer.

This is the ultimate underdog versus overdog matchup. Are the Hoosiers a real B1G/CFP contender, or will the Buckeyes “expose” IU as a product of a soft schedule? Put down your phone—ignore the “brand bias” and strength of schedule debates on X (Formerly Twitter)—and tune into what might be the game of the year in the Big Ten.

Score: Ohio State 24, Indiana 16

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Noon ET | Iowa (6-4, 4-3) @ Maryland (4-6, 1-6) | BTN

Spread: Iowa -6.5 (-115) | Total: 45.5

Iowa has lost three straight games on the road. No one thought much of their 35-7 defeat at OSU (7-0 at halftime). It felt rather flukey when they fell at Michigan State, 32-20, sandwiched by three wins by at least 24 points. But when they lost at UCLA, it’s an obvious pattern. The Hawkeyes aren’t the same team on the road.

Maryland has dropped three straight and five of six overall. They’re 1-6 in the Big Ten—including home losses to MSU, Northwestern, and Rutgers—not exactly a murderer’s row of the B1G’s best. Barring a three-game winning streak (including an upset at Penn State and a bowl win), Maryland is headed to their worst season since Year 1 of the Mike Locksley era in 2019.

Something has to give.

Shockingly, Iowa has had the better offense this season but could be down to their fourth-string quarterback. Cade McNamara lost his job to the more mobile Brendan Sullivan, who was injured at UCLA and is expected to miss the remainder of the season. Hawkeyes fans have their fingers crossed that the QB they wanted out can return this Saturday.

The key matchup: Iowa’s running attack (11th in YPC/5.49 YPC) against a decent Maryland run defense (31st in YPC/3.61 YPC).

Score: Iowa 24, Maryland 13

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Noon ET | No. 25 Illinois (7-3, 4-3) @ Rutgers (6-4, 3-4) | Peacock

Spread: Illinois -1 | Total: 47.5

It is one of three games on the B1G slate between teams that have already clinched bowl eligibility. What, are you not signing up for Peacock? If you’re reading this, you probably already have Peacock.

Illinois is the better team, not just because it has a number next to its name. The Illini snapped their two-game losing streak with a blowout over Michigan State but now have to go on the road for just the fourth time this season. QB Luke Altmyer hasn’t been as good on the road, but the past two away from home were at No. 4 Penn State and No. 1 Oregon.

Since losing four in a row, Rutgers has come out of their bye week with back-to-back wins behind five touchdown passes from Athan Kaliakmanis. In RU’s six wins, Kaliakmanis has 12 TD passes to two INTs, compared to two TDs to four INTs in their four losses.

Which Kaliakmanis will we see on Saturday?

Score: Illinois 27, Rutgers 20

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3:30 p.m. ET | No. 4 Penn State (9-1, 6-1) @ Minnesota (6-4, 4-3) | CBS

Spread: Penn State -11.5 | Total: 45.5

A sneaky big game in the Big Ten this week. Ranked fourth in the CFP Rankings, Penn State is headed toward a home playoff game…if they can win their final two games.

Despite the fact they’re coming off a loss at Rutgers, Minnesota (wins over USC & Illinois) is arguably the second-best team on PSU’s schedule. Their defense has bounced back this season, and the Gophers are getting better play out of their quarterback. Max Brosmer has eight TDs in the past four games and no INTs in the past five (4-1 record).

Even those questioning PSU’s resume and James Franklin’s biggest detractors have to concede that the Nittany Lions handle their business in games they’re supposed to win. Their last loss to a team that didn’t finish the season in the top 10 came in 2021, and 27 of their past 29 wins have come by double digits.

For those predicting a potential upset, something else to consider: the Gophers have played four teams that have won at least six games and are 1-3, including losses to 6-win North Carolina, 6-win Iowa, and 6-win Rutgers. Two of those defeats came at home.

Score: Penn State 31, Minnesota 13

3:30 p.m. ET | Northwestern (4-6, 2-5) @ Michigan (5-5, 3-4) | FS1

Spread: Michigan -10.5 | Total: 36.5

This game figures to be as exciting as a game, with a total of 36.5 projects to be.

Of course, if you’re a lover of car crashes, Northwestern has a chance to do the funniest thing—put the defending champion Wolverines on the cusp of a losing season and missing out on a bowl game. Unthinkable weeks ago. Do the Wildcats have enough on offense to pull off the upset on the road? I don’t see it.

As far as Michigan has fallen, they’re still the superior team and know they need this win. The loser will be eliminated from clinching bowl eligibility: the Wildcats officially and the Wolverines virtually.

Score: Michigan 23, Northwestern 9

3:30 PM ET | Wisconsin (5-5, 3-4) @ Nebraska (5-5, 2-5) | BTN

Spread: Nebraska -2.5 (-115) | Total: 42.5

Insert Spiderman meme.

Nebraska started the season 3-0 and 5-1, which led to high hopes in Lincoln. Since then, the Cornhuskers have lost four straight games and fired their offensive coordinator. They sit at .500; if they lose on Saturday, they are in jeopardy of missing out on a bowl game.

Wisconsin was 5-2, coming off three straight wins, which escalated hopes in Madison. Since then, the Badgers have lost three consecutive games and fired their offensive coordinator. They sit at .500; if they lose on Saturday, they are in jeopardy of missing out on a bowl game.

When they win, they typically win big: Nebraska by an average margin of 21.4 and Wisconsin by an average margin of 25.8, which has led to each being overrated at specific points in the season.

The difference is how they lose. The Cornhuskers are 1-4 in one-possession games and have lost by more than a touchdown once. The Badgers are 0-1 in one-possession games and have lost by more than two touchdowns four times.

This one looks close and low-scoring, but if you like the Huskers, take them on an alt-line.

Score: Nebraska 23, Wisconsin 13

10:30 PM ET | USC (5-5, 3-5) @ UCLA (4-6, 3-5) | NBC

Spread: USC -4.5 | Total: 51.5

It’s the Big Ten after dark, and I am here for it!

For starters, it is arguably the best uniform game in college football. Regardless of where the game is played, it’s USC’s Cardinal jerseys against UCLA’s blue (think sky blue). There’s also a lot on the line, as both programs can still clinch bowl eligibility, and the loser is in trouble.

It’s still possible the Trojans finish 7-5 and the Bruins 4-8, but we could also see Deshaun Foster lead his team to a bowl game in Year 1, while Lincoln Riley misses a bowl game for the first time as a head coach. If UCLA pulls off the minor upset at home, you can argue scenario two is likely.

Who saw that coming when USC was ranked No. 11 (3-1) in the country and talked up as a playoff contender while UCLA was in the midst of a five-game losing streak and considered one of the laughingstocks in college football?

The Trojans have been the better team throughout the season, with a far superior offense (13th in yards per play vs. 100th) and even a slightly better defense (49th in yards per play vs. 62nd). However, the teams are trending in opposite directions: USC has lost four of six, and UCLA has won three of four.

Throw all of that out for this rivalry game.

Score: USC 27, UCLA 26