5 Potential NFL Week 14 Upsets With Value on Kalshi
Paul Connor
Host · Writer
As we head into the final stretch of the 2025 NFL season, the playoff picture is tightening, and so are the lines. But in a league defined by parity, the market often overreacts to recent records, leaving massive value for traders willing to fade the public narrative. By analyzing the gap between implied odds and true win probability, we’ve identified five “Yes" contracts on Kalshi where the market is underestimating the underdog.
Here are five upset alerts for Week 14 where the data suggests the price is right.
1. Cincinnati Bengals +233 ML
Opponent: @ Buffalo Bills
SportsGrid Projection: 43.2% | 5-Star Pick
The books haven’t adjusted fast enough to Joe Burrow’s return last week. Fresh off a blowout win over the Ravens, the Bengals are massively undervalued at +233 against a Bills team they have beaten in two consecutive meetings (including the postseason).
2. Tennessee Titans +178 ML
Opponent: @ Cleveland Browns
SportsGrid Projection: 47.2% | 5-Star Pick
With a staggeringly low total of 33.5, this matchup between struggling rookie quarterbacks Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders is a high-variance slog where points will be at a premium. In a game likely decided by a single mistake, the Titans offer excellent value.
3. Chicago Bears +257 ML
Opponent: @ Green Bay Packers
SportsGrid Projection: 35.2% | 4-Star Pick
The market is pricing this rivalry on history rather than current form, disrespecting a 9-3 Bears team that has rattled off five straight wins to take control of the NFC. At +257, there is undeniable value in backing the conference’s hottest team against a Packers squad that has been plagued by inconsistency all season.
4. Houston Texans +156 ML
Opponent: @ Kansas City Chiefs
SportsGrid Projection: 45.2% | 3-Star Pick
Kansas City’s decimated offensive line (missing three starters) is a recipe for disaster against Houston’s league-leading defense. At +156, the smart money is on the Texans’ suffocating unit to exploit this massive trench mismatch and control the game.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers +223 ML
Opponent: @ Baltimore Ravens
SportsGrid Projection: 37.2% | 3-Star Pick
In a classic AFC North grudge match where records often get thrown out the window, the market is overcorrecting for Pittsburgh’s recent skid. With both teams sitting at 6-6 and Lamar Jackson battling mobility-limiting injuries, this game is far closer to a coin flip than the +223 odds suggest.
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