Predicting Every AFC Week 14 Game With Score Projections
Grant White
Host · Writer
Thanksgiving is behind us, meaning we’re in the stretch drive of the NFL season. There is still a lot to be determined, as division races and playoff spots are just starting to heat up.
Check out our weekly predictions for every Week 14 NFL contest!
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
- Stadium: M&T Bank Stadium
- Location: Baltimore, MD
- Time: Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: BAL -6 | Total: 42.5
- Moneyline: BAL -275 | PIT +225
Even when the Steelers had a four-game cushion in the AFC North, bettors didn’t believe in them. It’s harder to take a stance on the once-proud franchise in Week 14, after last week’s dismal performance. Now taking on the division-leading Ravens, Pittsburgh remains entirely out of its element. Baltimore suffered an unexpected defeat last week at the hands of the Bengals. Still, they put up above-average yards on offense without maximizing run production. The Steelers’ defensive front has been bulldozed all season, and that’s not going to change on Sunday. Until they show us otherwise, fade the Steelers.
Predicted Outcome: Ravens 24 – Steelers 14
Tennessee Titans vs Cleveland Browns
- Stadium: Huntington Bank Stadium
- Location: Cleveland, OH
- Time: Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: CLE -4 | Total: 34.5
- Moneyline: CLE -200 | TEN +170
All of a sudden, Shedeur Sanders looks like the first-round pick everyone thought he would be. Conversely, Cam Ward appears to be the latest first-overall bust. Those diverging paths carry the Browns and Titans into a meaningless clash in the Forest City. The Browns’ defensive supremacy is virtually unmatched, and their offense has looked better under Sanders’s guidance. Even though just a few wins separate these teams, this will be an entirely one-sided affair.
Predicted Outcome: Browns 28 – Titans 3
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets
- Stadium: MetLife Stadium
- Location: East Rutherford, NJ
- Time: Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: MIA -3 | Total: 41.5
- Moneyline: MIA -150 | NYJ +130
The Dolphins have won three in a row, but they looked completely undeserving of their last two victories. Despite all three games coming at home, Miami was outgained by a cumulative 1,049-979 margin. Moreover, their victories are more a matter of the other team losing than the Dolphins winning. That makes them completely undeserving of their favorite status against a rising Jets squad. New York has won three of its previous five, including both games at MetLife Stadium. Improved metrics on both sides of the football validate their ascent. It may not be a rout, but we like the Jets’ chances of claiming victory in Week 14.
Predicted Outcome: Jets 24 – Dolphins 22
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars
- Stadium: EverBank Stadium
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
- Time: Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: IND -1.5 | Total: 47.5
- Moneyline: IND -130 | JAX +110
For the first time in years, the AFC South has become a battleground for top contenders. That heated race comes to a head in Week 14, as the Colts travel to Jacksonville for a date with the Jaguars. Indianapolis has dropped two in a row, and its offensive numbers have declined. They have fallen below 281 total yards in each of those contests, getting outgained by a substantial margin. At the same time, the Jags have put up above-average offensive production in two of three, while winning all three contests. Insulated at home, Jacksonville should do enough to eke out a win as short home underdogs.
Predicted Outcome: Jaguars 24 – Colts 22
Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills
- Stadium: Highmark Stadium
- Location: Orchard Park, NY
- Time: Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: BUF -5.5 | Total: 53.5
- Moneyline: BUF -260 | CIN +215
The Bills likely won’t catch the Pats atop the AFC East standings, but they can’t afford to cede any ground to the teams beneath them. That puts them in a must-win position throughout the rest of the campaign. As we saw last week, Josh Allen is up to the challenge. The reigning MVP dismantled the Steelers’ defense with his RPO offense, a strategy that will work even better against the Bengals’ defense. Cincinnati will do more than enough to send this game over the total, but the AFC North basement dwellers won’t come close to touching the Bills.
Predicted Outcome: Bills 42 – Bengals 28
Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders
- Stadium: Allegiant Stadium
- Location: Las Vegas, NV
- Time: Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
- Spread: DEN -7.5 | Total: 40.5
- Moneyline: DEN -425 | LV +320
All of those offseason changes were for naught, as the Raiders remain one of the worst teams in the league. Unfortunately, things will only get worse in Week 14 when they host the Broncos. Denver is challenging for the top spot in the conference, combining offensive supremacy with defensive grit. Meanwhile, the Raiders can’t get more than four yards on a play and alternate between above- and below-average performances on defense. The Broncos will be ready for anything the Raiders throw their way and should systematically march to victory in Sin City.
Predicted Outcome: Broncos 31 – Raiders 10
Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs
- Stadium: Arrowhead Stadium
- Location: Kansas City, MO
- Time: Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
- Spread: KC -3.5 | Total: 41.5
- Moneyline: KC -175 | HOU +150
Defense will be at the forefront of this pivotal AFC clash at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs and Texans are both on the outside of the playoff picture, looking in, and there isn’t room for both in the postseason. With that, this Week 14 Sunday Night Football matchup should serve as an inflection point for whichever team continues its climb up the standings. Many may defer to the Chiefs in this spot, but we can’t look past Houston’s superior defense. The Texans have adopted a punishing mentality, which will put undue pressure on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense. It will be a defensive slog, but Houston pulls off the upset on primetime.
Predicted Outcome: Texans 17 – Chiefs 15
Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Chargers
- Stadium: SoFi Stadium
- Location: Inglewood, CA
- Time: Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
- Spread: PHI -3 | Total: 41.5
- Moneyline: PHI -150 | LAC +130
This total implies offense will be in short supply on Monday Night Football. However, our analysis points toward a much different conclusion. The Eagles’ offense has looked uninspired of late, but we have the defending champions earmarked as progression candidates. Their scoring potential has remained constant, but output is diminished. Turnovers have been a factor, but Philadelphia should clean up its play over the final few weeks of the regular season. Likewise, the Chargers have scored at least 25 points in each of their previous three home matchups, a benchmark within reach against the Eagles. It may take a game-winning drive in the waning moments, but Philadelphia escapes with the hard-fought win.
Predicted Outcome: Eagles 31 – Chargers 27
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