NFL · 1 hour ago

Buyer Beware: 30 NFL Free Agents To Avoid At High Prices

Paul Connor

Host · Writer

The Bottom Line
The winners of March often become the losers of September. While fans love a splashy signing, the smartest teams understand that the best move in free agency is often the one you simply don't make. Only time will tell if this year's high rollers can buck that NFL trend.
The Allure of the Big Splash
NFL lore is filled with hefty free agent contracts that failed to pan out. From Albert Haynesworth to Kenny Golladay, history shows that winning the offseason rarely equates to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. With the salary cap skyrocketing again in 2026, teams are desperate to find a savior. But GMs must tread carefully, because the difference between a franchise cornerstone and a cap casualty is often just one signature away.

With that reality in mind, here are 30 players in this year's class who are prime candidates to underdeliver on their massive projected price tags.

Note: This is a continuation of our original article. Players who have signed contracts have been updated accordingly.
1. Malik Willis (QB)
Malik Willis looked fantastic in his limited action for Green Bay over the last two seasons, rehabilitating his image entirely. However, desperate teams are projecting a sizeable contract (potentially $40M/year) based on a handful of games in a perfect ecosystem. Paying franchise quarterback money for a player with fewer than ten career starts is the ultimate gamble.

UPDATE: Willis has signed a three-year, $67.5 million contract with the Miami Dolphins.
2. George Pickens (WR)
Finally looking like a true WR1, George Pickens delivered a monster first season in Dallas (93-1,429-9). Still, writing a top-of-market check comes with real risk given Pickens' history of maturity and week-to-week consistency issues. When a player’s best production arrives right as he’s due to get paid, smart teams at least consider the timing.

UP: The Cowboys have placed the franchise tag on Pickens.
3. Kyle Pitts (TE)
Kyle Pitts will likely seek a valuation consistent with a top-three tight end based on his elite physical traits, yet his production has rarely justified that price tag. Even with a well-timed 88-929-5 receiving line in 2025, Pitts offers little as a blocker and still tends to disappear for long stretches.

UPDATE: The Atlanta Falcons have placed the franchise tag on Pitts.
4. Kenneth Walker III (RB)
History warns that teams often overpay for "recency bias" on the league's biggest stage, a trap awaiting whoever signs Kenneth Walker III. Coming off a Super Bowl LX victory in which he earned MVP honors, Walker's market is going to be red hot, but suitors are paying for the postseason shine rather than long-term durability, especially given the nagging oblique and ankle injuries that sapped his efficiency before 2025.

UPDATE: Walker has signed a three-year, $43 million contract with the Kansas City Chiefs.
5. Trey Hendrickson (EDGE)
Trey Hendrickson has been a sack artist for years, but he is entering his age-31 season coming off a 2025 campaign significantly shortened by hip and core injuries. Pass rushers often fall off a cliff in their 30s. Paying Hendrickson for what he did in 2023 and 2024 rather than what he will do in 2026 is a recipe for regret.
6. Daniel Jones (QB)
Daniel Jones revitalized his career in Indianapolis before a torn Achilles tendon ended his season in December. While Jones is widely expected to re-sign with the Colts, any deal is going to be a risky investment for a mobile quarterback whose greatest asset may be permanently compromised, not to mention he might not even be ready for Week 1.

UPDATE: The Colts have placed the transition tag on Jones.
7. Kwity Paye (EDGE)
Despite a disappointing 2025 season where he logged only four sacks, Kwity Paye is projected to command nearly $17M annually. Teams hoping to unlock potential that hasn't consistently manifested on the field are likely to overpay based solely on his athletic profile and former first-round draft status.

UPDATE: Paye has signed a three-year, $48 million contract with the Las Vegas Raiders.
8. Riq Woolen (CB)
Riq Woolen is hitting free agency with a freshly minted Super Bowl ring and a physical profile (6'4", 4.26 speed) that GMs dream about. However, his 2025 campaign was uneven, often marred by lapses in coverage discipline and tackling issues that he masked with elite recovery speed. A team desperate for a CB1 will likely pay him $20M+ annually based on his athletic ceiling and playoff run, ignoring that his technical consistency has plateaued since his Pro Bowl rookie year.
9. Jaelan Phillips (LB)
Availability remains the most important stat, yet pass rushers with extensive medical histories often command massive contracts based on "potential" and "flashes." Jaelan Phillips is a premier talent when healthy, but paying him top-ten edge money requires betting against the odds of his durability holding up over a multi-year deal, given his history of significant knee issues and a 2023 Achilles tear.

UPDATE: Phillips has signed a four-year, $120 million contract with the Carolina Panthers.
10. Wan'Dale Robinson (WR)
While Wan'Dale Robinson's 92 catches ranked ninth in the NFL, his low touchdown numbers (four) and modest yards-per-catch average (11.0) reveal a volume-dependent slot receiver masquerading as a game-changer. Paying $15M+ per year for mostly underneath production is bad business.

UPDATE: Robinson has signed a four-year, $78 million contract with the Tennessee Titans.
11. Jamel Dean (CB)
Despite taking a hefty pay cut to stay in Tampa Bay, Jamel Dean rebounded with a phenomenal 2025 campaign and is poised to ignite a massive bidding war. Yet, handing a lucrative deal to a cornerback who turns 30 this fall is a highly precarious move. Dean has never played more than 15 games in a season, missing three contests this past year alone. If a desperate front office ignores his durability red flags and bakes significant long-term guarantees into his contract, they risk anchoring their salary cap to an aging asset whose performance could quickly fall off a cliff.

UPDATE: Dean has signed a three-year, $36.75 million contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
12. Mike Evans (WR)
There is no denying that Mike Evans is a surefire Hall of Famer. Unfortunately, his historic streak of 1,000-yard seasons came to an abrupt end in 2025, as he managed only 368 yards across eight games. Evans will be 33 years old in August and is battling severe age-cliff regression and compounding injuries, including chronic hamstring issues. Paying top-market guaranteed money for an aging receiver with diminishing vertical separation based purely on his past legacy is a sentimental trap.

UPDATE: Evans has signed with the San Francisco 49ers, agreeing to a three-year contract worth up to $60.4 million.
13. Breece Hall (RB)
Breece Hall enters free agency at just 24 years old and fresh off his first 1,000-yard rushing campaign (1,065). However, paying top-of-market money for a running back with a heavy workload and declining advanced metrics (36th in True Yards Per Carry) is a dangerous game. Committing elite, multi-year guaranteed money to a volume-dependent runner is the exact type of move that quickly ruins a team's salary cap flexibility.

UPDATE: The Jets have placed the franchise tag on Hall.
14. Alec Pierce (WR)
Alec Pierce delivered a career year with 1,003 receiving yards and a league-leading 21.3 yards per reception, solidifying himself as a premier deep threat. As a result, his market projection has skyrocketed to the $20M–$24M annual range. While Pierce's vertical speed is elite, paying WR1 money to a highly volatile, low-volume specialist with a limited route tree creates extreme offensive rigidity and is structurally inefficient.

UPDATE: Pierce has re-signed with the Indianapolis Colts, agreeing to a four-year, $114 million contract.
15. Braden Smith (RT)
Scarcity at the offensive tackle position routinely forces front offices into panicked overpays, and Braden Smith is this year's prime beneficiary. Entering his age-30 season, Smith's pass-protection metrics regressed significantly in 2025, and he carries a concerning medical history that includes severe neck issues and concussions. Handing an aging, declining right tackle upwards of $17 million annually to satisfy positional demand borders on negligent cap management.
16. Brandon Aiyuk (WR)
Elite route-running and historical production will make Brandon Aiyuk an enticing target once the 49ers officially release him, but his recent medical and organizational fallout make him an unprecedented risk. Aiyuk signed a four-year, $120 million extension with San Francisco in August 2024, but played only seven lackluster games before suffering a torn ACL and MCL in his right knee. Having missed the entirety of the 2025 season and carrying a history of rehab complications that led the Niners to void his contract guarantees, Aiyuk is a depreciating asset.
17. Travis Etienne Jr. (RB)
Travis Etienne Jr. hits free agency carrying the illusion of elite production, having accumulated nearly 1,400 scrimmage yards and 13 touchdowns in 2025. However, advanced metrics reveal a highly inefficient runner whose burst is actively deteriorating. Etienne enters his age-27 season having posted a negative Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush and a dismal 36.2% success rate, lagging significantly behind his positional peers.

UPDATE: Etienne has signed a four-year, $52 million contract with the New Orleans Saints.
18. Alijah Vera-Tucker (G)
While his film shows Pro Bowl upside, Alijah Vera-Tucker's troubling injury history makes him a massive liability. After missing significant portions of 2022 and 2023, Vera-Tucker missed the entire 2025 season with a torn left triceps, meaning he has been available for only 43 of a possible 85 career games. Nevertheless, positional scarcity is driving his market projections as high as $17.5 million annually.
19. Joey Bosa (EDGE)
Joey Bosa is a premium brand name whose actual down-to-down impact no longer aligns with his expected compensation. Turning 31 years old in July, Bosa managed only 5.0 sacks in 2025. While he led the NFL with five forced fumbles, those splash plays artificially inflate his perceived value, masking his declining snap share (57.2%) and extensive medical history.
20. David Edwards (G)
David Edwards embodies the risk of positional scarcity inflating the market for mid-tier talent. A solid rotational piece who grew into a starter for the Bills, Edwards allowed a concerning 27 quarterback pressures in 2025. Despite this, desperate teams are projecting an annual salary nearing $20 million, a price point typically reserved for perennial All-Pros.

UPDATE: Edwards has signed a four-year, $61 million contract with the New Orleans Saints.
21. Tyler Linderbaum (C)
Tyler Linderbaum has been arguably the best center in football over the last few seasons, earning three consecutive Pro Bowl nods with the Ravens. However, the trap here is the positional value relative to his projected contract. Reports suggest Linderbaum will command a market-shattering deal that far exceeds the traditional center market. Paying a premium at the pivot is notoriously difficult to justify unless a team already boasts a flawless roster, and tying up massive cap space in an interior lineman can paralyze a front office's flexibility to build at premium positions like edge rusher or wide receiver.

UPDATE: Linderbaum has signed a three-year, $81 million contract with the Las Vegas Raiders.
22. Rasheed Walker (OT)
As the top offensive tackle available, Rasheed Walker is practically guaranteed to incite a bidding war. While he established himself as a solid starter in Green Bay, Walker benefited immensely from Matt LaFleur's scheme and Jordan Love's quick processing. Handing him elite, blind-side money based on his status as the "best available" rather than a true, standalone franchise anchor is a classic free agency pitfall that often leads to massive buyer's remorse.
23. Odafe Oweh (EDGE)
After an in-season trade to the Los Angeles Chargers, Odafe Oweh posted 7.5 sacks in 12 games, bringing his name to the forefront of the edge rusher market. Still, Oweh remains a streaky, traits-based pass rusher whose underlying win rate rarely matches his splash plays. Desperate teams are likely to pay him upwards of $20M annually, hoping he will finally blossom into a perennial disruptor, ignoring long stretches of ineffectiveness throughout his career.

UPDATE: Oweh has signed a four-year, $100 million contract with the Washington Commanders.
24. Isaiah Likely (TE)
With Kyle Pitts receiving the franchise tag in Atlanta, Isaiah Likely finds himself thrust into the spotlight as the premier tight end available. Likely flashed immense upside in Baltimore whenever Mark Andrews was sidelined, but his standalone production as a focal-point TE1 remains largely unproven. Paying Likely top-five tight end money based on highlight-reel flashes rather than consistent, high-volume output is a highly dangerous projection for a player transitioning out of a tailored Ravens ecosystem.

UPDATE: Likely has signed a three-year, $40 million contract with the New York Giants.
25. Khalil Mack (EDGE)
Khalil Mack's legacy as a generational pass rusher is secure, but entering free agency at 35 years old, his best days are firmly in the rearview mirror. Mack's explosion has noticeably declined, and his snap counts require careful management. Committing significant guaranteed money to a mid-30s edge defender based on name brand and past accolades is exactly how teams handicap their financial future.

UPDATE: Mack has re-signed with the Los Angeles Chargers, agreeing to a one-year, $18 million contract.
26. Wyatt Teller (G)
For years, Wyatt Teller was the premier mauler on the Cleveland Browns' interior. However, he enters free agency at 31 years old following a confusing 2025 campaign that featured both a surprising benching and a season-ending injury. Guard is a position where teams are often forced to overpay for competence, and Teller’s past All-Pro accolades will undoubtedly inflate his asking price.
27. Elgton Jenkins (OL)
Released yesterday by the Packers, Elgton Jenkins hits the open market as one of the NFL’s most unique, yet polarizing free agents. While he made his name as a premier "chess piece" capable of starting at four different positions, his 2025 campaign exposed the limits of that versatility, culminating in a statistically weak stretch at center and a devastating lower-leg fracture. The temptation to pay Jenkins elite blind-side or premium guard money based on his Pro Bowl peak is immense, but investing in a 30-year-old lineman recovering from severe ligament damage is a leap of faith, and a dangerous one at that.
28. Jaquan Brisker (S)
Few players in the modern era channel a 1980s-style enforcer mentality quite like Jaquan Brisker, but that trademark aggression has come at a steep cost. Despite a durable 17-game run in 2025, Brisker’s history of three concussions in four years, including a 2024 stint that required nervous system retraining, makes him a volatile asset. For a front office, the internal debate is whether to reward Brisker's punishing style of play, or fear the reality that his next highlight-reel collision could be his last.
29. Deebo Samuel (WR)
The “wideback” phenomenon Deebo Samuel used to reshape the geometry of the NFL now appears to be hitting a wall of diminishing returns. While his brand name still carries significant weight, the trap for a desperate front office is handing him $13M–$15M annually while expecting the dynamic offensive centerpiece of 2021. Entering his age-30 season, Samuel averaged a career-low 10.1 yards per reception in 2025 as his rushing volume simultaneously plummeted. Any multi-year guarantee at this stage is a bet on past highlights rather than future output.
30. Tyreek Hill (WR)
Released by the Dolphins in February after a 2025 season derailed by a catastrophic knee injury, Tyreek Hill enters free agency at a career crossroads. Now 32 years old, Hill's name alone will command interest, but any team signing him is betting against the steep age cliff that often claims speed-dependent receivers, especially those coming off major reconstructive surgery.
The Bottom Line
The winners of March often become the losers of September. While fans love a splashy signing, the smartest teams understand that the best move in free agency is often the one you simply don't make. Only time will tell if this year's high rollers can buck that NFL trend.
The Allure of the Big Splash
NFL lore is filled with hefty free agent contracts that failed to pan out. From Albert Haynesworth to Kenny Golladay, history shows that winning the offseason rarely equates to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. With the salary cap skyrocketing again in 2026, teams are desperate to find a savior. But GMs must tread carefully, because the difference between a franchise cornerstone and a cap casualty is often just one signature away.

With that reality in mind, here are 30 players in this year's class who are prime candidates to underdeliver on their massive projected price tags.

Note: This is a continuation of our original article. Players who have signed contracts have been updated accordingly.

Buyer Beware: 30 NFL Free Agents To Avoid At High Prices

BETTING NEWS

FUTURES

EDITOR'S PICKS

For the Best of SportsGrid, Grab the App

BETTING NEWS

FUTURES