Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Potential Playoff Preview and Odds Analysis

Week 12 NFL Betting Preview: Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Week 12 delivers a matchup that looks—and feels—like a postseason preview. The Colts and Chiefs both have playoff aspirations, and the structure of this matchup flips the usual postseason script: Indianapolis gets the home-field edge, yet Kansas City is still a 3.5-point favorite with a 49.5 total on the board.

Oddsmakers continue to price the Chiefs as a team capable of ripping off a late-season surge, but to this point, the on-field product hasn’t consistently supported the idea of a dominant November-December stretch. Meanwhile, the Colts enter the game rested, recalibrated, and carrying the type of offensive identity that can stress Kansas City’s defense in ways few opponents have managed.

Below is a full breakdown of the matchup and the betting angles that matter most.

Colts vs. Chiefs: A Potential Playoff Preview

Although Kansas City usually commands the advantage in marquee AFC matchups, this game presents a different dynamic. The Colts have home field, momentum from added rest, and the kind of physical style that can tilt matchups in late-season environments.

The Chiefs remain favored by 3.5, but the market has not shown much enthusiasm for pushing this line higher. There’s a growing sentiment among analysts that Kansas City is overdue for a multi-game winning streak—the type that pushes their record into the 10–11 win range—but that’s still more theory than reality. Their offense has lacked the trademark consistency, and their defense, once seen as the backbone of this year’s team, has started to show cracks.

The Colts, meanwhile, continue to lean on what they do best: controlling tempo, feeding their star back, and leveraging their physicality to shorten games. That approach becomes even more potent with an added week of rest.

Jonathan Taylor: The Key to the Upset

Taylor is the centerpiece of this matchup. While Kansas City has been widely regarded as one of the league’s top run defenses in recent seasons, the last month tells a different story.

Over the past four weeks:

• 23rd in EPA per rush allowed

• 26th in stuff run percentage

That combination marks a meaningful drop-off and opens the door for Taylor to impose his will. And he has already been playing at an elite level—one of the best running back profiles of the past half-decade based on efficiency, explosiveness, and consistency.

This game sets up as a spotlight opportunity for him.

Even if individual Taylor props aren’t currently offering compelling value, the matchup itself is favorable. Indianapolis can minimize variance, dictate tempo, and keep Kansas City uncomfortable by leaning into Taylor’s workload.

Betting Breakdown

Point Spread: Colts +3.5

The hook is everything here. While Chiefs -3.5 feels slightly inflated based on form, Colts +3.5 becomes a sharp play—especially given Indianapolis’ rest advantage and Kansas City’s recent decline in run-stopping efficiency.

A 2.5-point spread would’ve been a different story, but at 3.5, the value leans toward the underdog.

Lean: Colts +3.5

Total: Over/Under 49.5

The total sits just under 50, suggesting an expectation of steady scoring rather than a full shootout. That aligns with both teams’ current profiles:

• Indianapolis can extend drives through Taylor

• Kansas City remains dangerous but volatile

• The Colts’ defense has shown the ability to disrupt rhythm-based offenses

There’s enough uncertainty around offensive consistency on both sides to make this total tricky. While not a strong play, the lean slightly tilts toward the under, especially if Indianapolis succeeds in controlling tempo.

Slight Lean: Under 49.5

Prop Angles (Conceptual Only)

• Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards: Favorable matchup despite KC’s reputation.

• Colts RB Attempts Overs: Game script projects in Taylor’s favor.

• Chiefs Short Passing Overs: KC may need to adjust if the Colts’ pressure disrupts deeper concepts.

Final Prediction

This matchup carries a postseason feel, but the betting market gives Indianapolis enough cushion to be the sharper side. The Chiefs could certainly stabilize and find their late-season rhythm, but until that happens, backing them at more than a field goal on the road feels aggressive.

Projected Lean:

• Chiefs win narrowly

• Colts +3.5 covers

• Game leans toward the under 49.5

You can read all about what’s going on in the National Football League at SportsGrid.com.