NFL · 5 months ago

Mel Kiper’s Biggest NFL Draft Busts of All Time

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

1. JaMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders
Drafted: 2007 1st round, 1st pick by Oakland Raiders

Career NFL Stats: 31 games played, 18 TD, 23 INT, 65.2 pass rating

One of the biggest busts of all time, JaMarcus Russell was very squarely on Mel Kiper's radar in 2007. Kiper likened Russell to Hall of Fame quarterback John Elway and said he could be one of the top QBs in the NFL in three years. Well, something happened in three years; Russell's entire NFL career, as the LSU standout, was out of the league by 2009. Things could have looked much different for the Raiders had they selected Calvin Johnson or Adrian Peterson in '07.
Mel Kiper's Biggest NFL Busts
Mel Kiper is no stranger to swings and misses when it comes to evaluating college football talent and their transition to the NFL.

During the 2025 NFL Draft, Kiper repeatedly sang the praises of Shedeur Sanders despite his slide to the fifth round, where he was finally picked by the Cleveland Browns. Will Sanders be on this list in a few years? It's possible, but in the meantime, let's look at some of the players heralded by Kiper who went on to struggle greatly at the next level.

QBs Selected Ahead of Shedeur Sanders
8. Andre Wadsworth, Arizona Cardinals
Drafted: 1998 1st round, 3rd pick by Arizona Cardinals

Career NFL Stats: 36 games played, 94 tackles, 8.0 sacks, 1 INT

Andre Wadsworth's NFL career lasted just three NFL seasons, yet he was ranked No. 1 overall on Mel Kiper's 1998 prospect list. Kiper put Wadsworth ahead of future Hall of Famers Peyton Manning and 1997 Heisman winner Charles Woodson. While Manning went first overall, the Arizona Cardinals passed on Woodson to take Wadsworth, changing the direction of the franchise for years to come.

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7. Aaron Curry, Seattle Seahawks
Drafted: 2009 1st round, 4th pick by Seattle Seahawks

Career NFL Stats: 48 games played, 203 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles

Although Kiper wasn't the only one high on Aaron Curry, the veteran analyst ranked the Wake Forest product as the top prospect coming out in 2009. Seattle seemed to agree, selecting Curry over LeSean McCoy and Clay Matthews. While Matthew Stafford went No. 1 overall to the Detroit Lions, Kiper ranked him behind Curry, who was traded during his third season.

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6. David Carr, Houston Texans
Drafted: 2002 1st round, 1st pick by Houston Texans

Career NFL Stats: 94 games played, 65 TD, 71 INT, 74.9 passer rating

David Carr may not have landed on this list had he been drafted by a team other than the expansion Houston Texans in 2002. Houston had an offensive line held together by duct tape and superglue that gave up 73 sacks in Carr's rookie campaign. Carr lasted five years as the starter for the Texans but never put together a winning season. The biggest reason Carr is here is that Mel Kiper put him in the same rarified air as Hall of Famer Troy Aikman.

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5. Mike Williams, Detroit Lions
Drafted: 2005 1st round, 10th pick by Detroit Lions

Career NFL Stats: 56 games played, 127 rec, 1,526 rec yards, 5 TD

Annointing a college player a future Hall of Famer before they've even stepped on an NFL field is quite the Hail Mary, but Mel Kiper apparently likes airing it out. Kiper made the bold proclamation after the Lions took Mike Williams early in the first round. The outspoken pundit had Williams atop his prospect rankings that year, ahead of future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers and four-time First-team All-Pro DeMarcus Ware.

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4. Ki-Jana Carter, Cincinnati Bengals
Drafted: 1995 1st round, 1st pick by Cincinnati Bengals

Career NFL Stats: 59 games played, 1,144 rushing yards, 3.6 Y/A, 20 TD

There was no one more bullish on Ki-Jana Carter ahead of the 1995 NFL Draft than Mr. Kiper, except maybe the Cincinnati Bengals. Kiper claimed Carter would be the next Bo Jackson as he was selected No. 1 overall. The Penn State standout may have proven Mel right had he not torn his ACL in the preseason of his rookie campaign.

Carter went ahead of Titans great Steve McNair, Hall of Famer Warren Sapp, and wideout Joey Galloway, who ended up playing 16 seasons.
3. Jimmy Clausen, Carolina Panthers
Drafted: 2010 2nd round, 48th pick by Carolina Panthers

Career NFL Stats: 22 games played, 7 TD, 14 INT, 61.9 passer rating

If you're still wondering why Mel Kiper is still a working NFL Draft analyst, you are not alone. In 2010, Kiper said he would retire if Jimmy Clausen didn't become a star. Instead of becoming a star, Clausen became a black hole, lasting just one season in Carolina, where he went 1-9 in ten starts. Ranked No. 4 on Kiper's big board, Clausen was out of the league after three woeful seasons.

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2. Andre Ware, Detroit Lions
Drafted: 1990 1st round, 7th pick by Detroit Lions

Career NFL Stats: 14 games played, 5 TD, 8 INT, 63.6 passer rating

No stranger to draft busts, the Detroit Lions seemed to agree with Mel Kiper's opinion that Andre Ware would be "an excellent NFL quarterback." If excellent means starting just six games in the National Football League, then Kiper was bang on. Ware lasted just 14 games, completing 83 passes over four years in Detroit before trying his luck but not succeeding in the CFL. Making matters worse, Emmitt Smith was still available when the Lions took Ware.
1. JaMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders
Drafted: 2007 1st round, 1st pick by Oakland Raiders

Career NFL Stats: 31 games played, 18 TD, 23 INT, 65.2 pass rating

One of the biggest busts of all time, JaMarcus Russell was very squarely on Mel Kiper's radar in 2007. Kiper likened Russell to Hall of Fame quarterback John Elway and said he could be one of the top QBs in the NFL in three years. Well, something happened in three years; Russell's entire NFL career, as the LSU standout, was out of the league by 2009. Things could have looked much different for the Raiders had they selected Calvin Johnson or Adrian Peterson in '07.
Mel Kiper's Biggest NFL Busts
Mel Kiper is no stranger to swings and misses when it comes to evaluating college football talent and their transition to the NFL.

During the 2025 NFL Draft, Kiper repeatedly sang the praises of Shedeur Sanders despite his slide to the fifth round, where he was finally picked by the Cleveland Browns. Will Sanders be on this list in a few years? It's possible, but in the meantime, let's look at some of the players heralded by Kiper who went on to struggle greatly at the next level.

QBs Selected Ahead of Shedeur Sanders

Mel Kiper’s Biggest NFL Draft Busts of All Time

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