NFL Coaching Kalshi Market Update: Odds & Predictions

Transcription Summary From The Early Line: Donnie “Rightside" Seymour and Joe Raineri discuss the NFL head coaching market on Kalshi.

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NFL Head Coach Prediction Market

Here’s a great one for the NFL, Joe, with the Kalshi. Who will get hired as an NFL coach this year?

Mike McCarthy, Jerod Mayo, Antonio Pierce, Doug Pederson, Ron Rivera, Bill Belichick, and, you know, a couple of other guys that are listed. Now understand this. The question here is: if you pick Mike McCarthy, let’s say he’s the top of the leader board, but right now there’s a 14% chance. $100 pays back $715. But the rule summary here is, if Mike McCarthy is hired before January 1st, the market resolves to yes. They’ve got to be hired, Joe, before the season is actually over. That’s an extreme rarity where, hey, let me hire my coach with a game left in our NFL season.

The no market is 93% as it should be, but I thought that was a key indicator that it’s not the end of this season before next season. It’s actually just this year alone, December 31st, 2025. There isn’t one name on that list that you just rattled off there, Donny, that teams are gonna be lining up and clamoring to get to where the first one at the table wins. That’s, these are all retreads. These are not the hot new core and any of the hot new coordinators. Or unknown commodities are going to be playing in the playoffs, and you can’t interview them anyway. So all of this means that a team would have to love Mike McCarthy so much that they don’t want to lose him to somebody else. That’s not gonna happen before January 1st.