NFL Kalshi Betting: An Early Thanksgiving Day Preview
Grant White
Host · Writer
Thanksgiving Day football is an NFL tradition unlike any other. Three games with independent time slots mean the only distraction is wandering back to the kitchen for seconds and thirds. Some are busy meal-prepping and getting things ready for the weekend, but our attention is squarely on the NFL% Kalshi betting board for Thursday’s action.
Check out our early NFL Thanksgiving Day analysis for Thursday.
Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions
As is typically the case, the Detroit Lions hold honors for the early kick-off. This year, they are hosting the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field, looking to avenge a season-opening loss and move atop the NFC North standings.
The Kalshi betting board gives the Lions a 56% chance of besting the Packers on Thursday. Approximately, that equates to a -127 moneyline price in traditional betting markets. The highly liquid market is constantly adjusting, but bettors need to invest $0.65 on ‘Yes’ and $0.43 on ‘No’ for the Lions. The Packers’ ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ bets come in at $0.51 and $0.65, respectively.
Likewise, bettors can take a stance on Detroit to win by more than 3.5, but the market is drifting further away from the hosts. Current prices show ‘No’ at $0.55 and ‘Yes’ at $0.49. Given the tightly contested nature of divisional matchups, particularly on a short week, ‘No’ should continue to climb throughout the week.
Finally, the total checks in at 48.5, with most Kalshi punters taking a stake on ‘Yes’ on the over at $0.84. ‘No’ bettors can get a piece of the pie for $0.79.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Dallas Cowboys
This hasn’t been the Kansas City Chiefs’ season. Needing to make up ground in a crowded AFC playoff race, the Chiefs desperately need a win against the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday. Thankfully, the betting market has the reigning AFC Champions out in front, giving the Chiefs a 60% chance of claiming victory in Week 13.
Usually a public darling, the Chiefs’ Kalshi prices reflect that perception against the Cowboys. Backing Kansas City to win costs bettors $0.67, whereas bettors could take a stake on the Cowboys to lose at $0.76. Still, bettors aren’t expecting the Chiefs to run away with their Thanksgiving clash. The spread is currently set at 3.5, with a more equitable split of $0.53 on ‘Yes’ for the Chiefs to win by 3.5 and $0.52 on ‘No’.
Defense should also be in short supply, as reflected in the 51.5-point total. That action is proportionately split, with ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ both listed at $0.63.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens
Thanksgiving Day isn’t complete without dessert, and bettors are in for a real treat on the late slate. The Baltimore Ravens are looking to continue their run up the AFC North standings, taking on the Cincinnati Bengals at M&T Bank Stadium.
Not surprisingly, the Kalshi market is bullish on the Ravens’ chances against their division rival. Baltimore has a 79% chance of winning, with ‘Yes’ priced at a staggering $0.82. Bettors have a slight advantage in backing the Bengals to lose, currently listed at $0.79. The Ravens’ love doesn’t end there, as they are also a popular bet to win by over 7.5. Backing the hosts to cover costs bettors $0.63.
While this AFC North battle has the highest total on the board, bettors are widely expecting this to come in beneath the 53.5-point total. ‘No’ on the over is priced at $0.54, with ‘Yes’ a shade lower at $0.50.
NFL Thanksgiving Day Betting – Final Thoughts
Our plates will be full, but no Thanksgiving Day is complete without three servings of NFL football. The Kalshi market offers bettors a liquid entry point for all the action, while simultaneously allowing them to amend their positions as the action unfolds. These markets will continue to adjust as we approach kick-off, leaving bettors plenty of chances to make this the most profitable day of the season!
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