Sunday Night Football: Buccaneers vs Rams Same Game Parlay

The parity gap is shrinking in the NFC. At the start of the season, there were a handful of teams that looked better than the rest. But heading into Week 12, there are more teams in the playoff mix. What that means is that some of the teams at the top of the standings have started to slide, none more so than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Losers of three of their last four, the Bucs will try to stop the bleeding against a mighty Los Angeles Rams side.

There is plenty at stake in this Sunday Night Football NFC clash, and this is where our money will be at kick-off!

Where to Watch Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams

Stadium: SoFi Stadium
Location: Inglewood, CA
Where to Watch: NBC
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Spread: LAR -7 | Total: 49.5
Moneyline: LAR -360 | TB +280

Leg 1: Buccaneers +7

While things haven’t been going well for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, things aren’t as bad as they may seem. It might not be enough to steal the win on Sunday Night Football, but the Bucs should be able to stay within the spread against the Rams.

Tampa Bay’s downfall is precipitated by one significant factor — a less efficient scoring offense. Through the first five games of the season, the Buccaneers were sitting pretty at 5-1 while averaging 27.5 points per game. Over their last four, that output drops to 24.3, with the Bucs eclipsing 23 points in only one of those contests.

Tampa Bay’s offensive production was minimal across the first two games of its recent slide; however, the Bucs have taken strides with their latest efforts. Over the last couple of games, they have put up a cumulative 738 yards, surpassing 367 in each one of those contests. Naturally, we’ve seen a slight uptick in scoring, but we’re predicting a more substantive outburst in the short term.

This is a Bucs team that is better than it has shown. Even without Mike Evans and Bucky Irving, we should see increased scoring over the coming weeks, starting with tonight’s showdown at Sofi Stadium. That should be enough for the Buccaneers to cover the spread against the Rams.

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Leg 2: Baker Mayfield to Record 250+ Passing Yards +102

If the Bucs’ scoring efficiency improves as expected, Baker Mayfield will have to show out. He’s been the offensive catalyst for the NFC South leaders, and we expect him to shine under the bright lights of Sunday Night Football.

Often maligned, Mayfield needs to put the Buccaneers on his back to stay close versus the Rams. He has fallen below 173 passing yards in two of his last three, averaging 199.3 passing yards per game over that stretch. That’s a significant departure from his usual 236.5 season-long average, making him a natural progression candidate against the Rams.

The anticipated game script also validates Mayfield’s presumed ascent. As implied by the spread, Tampa Bay will likely be playing from behind versus the Rams, which will necessitate more involvement from the passing attack to stay close. Moreover, he should have no problem getting yards in big chunks against the 21st-ranked passing defense.

We’re counting on a bounce-back performance from Baker Mayfield on Sunday Night Football. He’ll be asked to do more to keep the Bucs close against one of the top teams in the conference. With that, he should have no problem eclipsing 250 passing yards.

Leg 3: Tez Johnson Any Time Touchdown Scorer +370

Mike Evans’ collarbone injury has necessitated more involvement from other pass-catchers. Emeka Egbuka has been the primary beneficiary, as evidenced by his team-leading 45 receptions and 717 receiving yards. But as good as he’s been, Tez Johnson‘s role has grown the most without Evans in the lineup. He’s an undervalued touchdown scorer on Sunday Night Football.

Over the past few weeks, Johnson’s target share has increased substantially. After earning just 10 targets through the first five games of the season, Johnson is up to 23 over the last four. That accounts for a 15.9% target share across the recent sample, more than triple the 5.1% mark he had through the first five weeks of the season.

More importantly, Johnson has made the most of his increased usage. He’s recorded four or more receptions in all but one of those previous four contests, pulling down 60.9% of the passes thrown his way. That has also translated to a sharp increase in scoring, with Johnson’s four touchdowns coming over the past five games.

So far this season, the Rams have allowed 17 touchdowns. All but three of those have come via the air. Baker Mayfield and Tez Johnson will continue that trend as they keep the Buccaneers within striking distance against the NFC West leaders.

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