NFL Prediction Markets: Ranking the 6 Remaining Winless Teams
Joe Cervenka
Host · Writer
The race to the bottom is on, and prediction markets are heating up around which franchise will be the last winless team in the NFL this season. At Polymarket, you can pick from the Houston Texans, Miami Dolphins, New Orleans Saints, and Tennessee Titans, who headline the list, with the New York Giants and New York Jets also in the mix.
Let’s break down the likelihood of each squad being the last loser standing, team struggles, and statistical profiles that could determine who goes the longest without a victory.
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Houston Texans – 43% Chance
The Houston Texans are the favorite to be the last team standing without a win, even though they are 7.5-point favorites, hosting fellow goose egg team, the Tennessee Titans, this week Sitting near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency (802 total yards, 267.3 per game), Houston has scored just 38 points in three games (12.6 per game). Defensively, they’ve been gashed for 315.7 yards per game and have not been a good unit all around. With real trouble on the offensive side of the roster, it’s no surprise Houston leads this market. Their schedule really toughens up after this week, and it appears the public is seeing Houston getting upset by the Titans on Sunday.
Next 5 Opponents
- Week 4 vs Titans
- Week 5 at Ravens
- Week 6 at Seahawks
- Week 7 vs 49ers
- Week 8 vs Broncos
Odds to Have Worst Regular Season Record: +2500 (10th)
Miami Dolphins – 36% Chance
The Miami Dolphins’ presence in this market is notable given their recent offensive identity. They rank in the NFL’s bottom 10 offensively (281.7 yards per game) and are averaging just 18.7 points per game (eighth lowest), a steep drop from past seasons. Defensively, they’ve surrendered 97 points (32.3 per game), the most in the league. With an upcoming game against their division rival, the Jets, this week, people are clearly on the side of New York besting the Dolphins on Sunday, fueling their second-place standing in prediction markets.
Next 5 Opponents
- Week 4 vs Jets
- Week 5 at Panthers
- Week 6 vs Chargers
- Week 7 at Browns
- Week 8 vs Falcons
Odds to Have Worst Regular Season Record: +1100 (4th)
New Orleans Saints – 30% Chance
The New Orleans Saints are also drawing heavy attention. Offensively, they’ve managed only 907 total yards (302 per game), putting them in the league’s bottom half, and have really struggled putting the ball in the end zone. The Saints’ 47 points scored (15.7 per game) are among the fewest in the NFL. Their defense hasn’t bailed them out, allowing 30 points per game, ranking eighth from the bottom. With a bottom-tier point differential of -43 (tied for NFL worst), the Saints remain firmly in danger of being the last winless team standing.
Next 5 Opponents
- Week 4 at Bills
- Week 5 vs Giants
- Week 6 vs Patriots
- Week 7 at Bears
- Week 8 vs Buccaneers
Odds to Have Worst Regular Season Record: +240 (1st)
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New York Giants – 26% Chance
The New York Giants are 0-3 and have struggled on both sides of the ball. Their offense ranks 26th, scoring just 17.3 points per game. Defensively, they’ve been equally poor, allowing the second-most yards in football at 405.3 per game, while giving up 27.7 points per game, with a -31 point differential. With matchups against top NFC East competition looming, their road to a first win won’t be easy. However, a meeting with the Saints next week appears to be where bettors see New York getting its first win.
Next 5 Opponents
- Week 4 vs Chargers
- Week 5 at Saints
- Week 6 vs Eagles
- Week 7 at Broncos
- Week 8 at Eagles
Odds to Have Worst Regular Season Record: +400 (3rd)
Tennessee Titans – 26% Chance
The Tennessee Titans’ problems start on offense, where they rank second-last in yardage (223.3 per game) while averaging just 17.0 points per game (fifth-lowest). Their defense hasn’t been much better, giving up 31.3 points per game (third most). Without a reliable offensive line and with a running game stuck at 88.7 rushing yards per game, Tennessee has no reliable identity, making its inclusion in this market no surprise. It does look like they are expected to beat the Texans this week, seeing how far down they are on the prediction markets list.
Next 5 Opponents
- Week 4 at Texans
- Week 5 vs Cardinals
- Week 6 vs Raiders
- Week 7 vs Patriots
- Week 8 at Colts
Odds to Have Worst Regular Season Record: +300 (2nd)
New York Jets – 26% Chance
The New York Jets’ defense has been overwhelmed, surrendering the fifth-most points in the league at 31.0 per game while giving up more than 340 yards a contest. On offense, they’ve been equally sluggish, totaling just 815 yards (271.7 per game), the seventh-fewest in the NFL. Their -39 point differential puts them among the league’s bottom feeders, and with upcoming tough AFC East games, bettors see a strong case for them remaining winless longer than most. That said, they are last on this list of the winless for a reason. Bettors clearly see New York with an advantage over Miami this week, despite being 2.5-point underdogs.
Next 5 Opponents
- Week 4 at Dolphins
- Week 5 vs Cowboys
- Week 6 vs Broncos (In London, England)
- Week 7 vs Panthers
- Week 8 at Bengals
Odds to Have Worst Regular Season Record: +1200 (5th)
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NFL Prediction Market Final Bell
Prediction markets have identified a clear group of bottom-tier teams likely to struggle for their first victory. The Texans are the favorite to be the last winless team, but the Dolphins, Saints, Titans, Giants, and Jets all present strong cases based on their offensive ineptitude, defensive woes, or both. As the season moves into October, the race to avoid the cellar will be as much of a storyline as the push for the playoffs.
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