NFL Week 12 Preview: New England Patriots Eye AFC East Title

Week 12 NFL Betting Preview: New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals

There’s a lot of market respect for the Patriots right now — and deservedly so. A team that opened the year as a long shot behind the heavily favored Buffalo Bills is now firmly positioned to steal the AFC East and potentially chase the No. 1 seed alongside the Denver Broncos.

This week, New England hits the road for a matchup against the Bengals, and the betting market has responded aggressively. Depending on your book, the Patriots are now 7.5 to 8.5-point favorites, with a total set at 49.5.

And yes, the line jump has everything to do with the biggest headline of the week:

The Ja’marr Chase appeal is denied.

The Bengals lose their top weapon and one of the game’s premier wideouts — and Chase loses a sizable chunk of his paycheck for an incident that has now overshadowed Cincinnati’s season. His explanation about where he would have spit if he intended it? Let’s just say nobody in the league office found it persuasive.

Patriots vs. Bengals: Line Movement & Matchup Overview

Before the Chase suspension, the lookahead line was Patriots -5.5. After the ruling and Cincinnati’s latest collapse, the number ballooned to the 7.5–8.5 range.

The reasons are obvious:

New England Has Rest & Rhythm

They last played on Thursday night in Week 11, dominating the Jets.
Drake Maye continues to put up elite numbers behind a pounding run game and a defense that forces teams into panic mode.

Cincinnati Is Reeling

They were pummeled by the Pittsburgh Steelers last week in a game that wasn’t competitive for a single snap.
The Steelers dropped 24 to 34 points in the second half alone, exposing the Bengals’ secondary, pass protection, and sideline composure.
Without Chase, this offense becomes extremely predictable — and extremely limited.

Key Matchups to Watch

Patriots Offense vs. Bengals Secondary

Cincinnati’s defensive backfield has been a weekly weakness, and removing Chase from the Bengals offense will only force their defense to spend more time on the field.

The Patriots, meanwhile:

Are physical
Are efficient
Are dominating inferior opponents
Have an offense that’s “bludgeoning” teams with Maye’s chunk-play accuracy

If New England jumps ahead early, expect the floodgates to open.

Bengals Passing Game Without Chase

Without their WR1, Cincinnati has no vertical threat that forces defenses into two-high safety looks. Every defensive coordinator now feels comfortable loading the middle, clogging routes, and letting the Bengals try to win with third and fourth options.

It’s a recipe for stalled drives.

And against this Patriots defense?

That’s a disaster.

Betting Breakdown

Spread: Patriots -7.5 to -8.5

This line is high, but the handicap is straightforward:

New England is rested.
Cincinnati is battered.
The Bengals’ offense is one-dimensional without Chase.
The Patriots are dominating opponents they’re supposed to dominate.

Lean: Patriots -7.5

Buy early if you like the Pats — this number only goes up.

Total: 49.5

This is the tricky one. New England should score, but Cincinnati may not keep its end of the bargain.

However, the Patriots offense is dynamic enough to push this total toward the over, especially if short fields or defensive turnovers come into play.

Lean: Over 49.5

…but don’t be shocked if New England does 75% of the work.

Props to Monitor

Drake Maye Passing Overs — Bengals secondary is vulnerable
Patriots RB Anytime TD — red-zone volume is consistent
Bengals Team Total Unders — life without Chase is bleak

Final Prediction

This matchup shapes up as another statement spot for New England, who continue to bully weaker opponents while climbing toward an improbable AFC East title push.

Projected Result:

Patriots win comfortably
Patriots cover -7.5
Game leans Over 49.5

Cincinnati was already slipping — without Ja’Marr Chase, they’re falling through the floor.

You can read all about what’s going on in the National Football League at SportsGrid.com.