NFL Week 15 Most Bet Player Props: Bills vs Pats Seeing Heavy Action

With the regular season winding down, Week 15 has brought a familiar mix of trend-driven betting and situational spots bettors continue to circle. From role players quietly shaping game plans to star names revisiting familiar opponents, this week’s most bet player props reflect how usage, matchup history, and recent deployment are shaping market behavior across the board.

Here’s a closer look at where the public is concentrating its attention at BetMGM.

1. Ty Johnson (BUF) Under 1.5 Receptions Made (+130)

Ty Johnson’s receiving usage has quietly become one of the more interesting markets this week. The Buffalo Bills running back has 16 catches on 24 targets for 195 yards this season and has gone under this number in seven of 13 games, though notably, the over has cashed in each of his past six outings. That recent run contrasts sharply with his earlier role, including Buffalo’s Week 5 loss to the New England Patriots when Johnson finished with zero catches on zero targets.

The Patriots allow 21.5 completions per game (19th) and 32.2 pass attempts (16th) overall, but their vulnerability shows up against pass-catching backs, surrendering 5.3 receptions per game (29th) and 5.38 targets per game (27th) to the position.

BUF vs NE Matchup Board: Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

2. Stefon Diggs (NE) Over 4.5 Receptions Made (-130)

Stefon Diggs’ revenge matchup against a team he knows all too well has drawn predictable attention. The former Bill has posted 64 catches on 79 targets for 705 yards, averaging 4.9 receptions per game, and has cleared this number in six of 13 games. One of those came in Western New York in Week 5, when Diggs erupted for season highs with 10 catches on 12 targets for 146 yards—his first game back in Buffalo after four highly productive seasons with Josh Allen there. The four-time Pro Bowler was dealt to the Houston Texans during the 2024 offseason.

The Bills’ defense has limited passing volume, ranking second in passing yards allowed (171.8 per game), first in receptions allowed (16.8), and tied for third in completions allowed (27.8). They also sit 11th, allowing 10.2 catches and ninth, allowing 16.5 targets per game to wide receivers, shaping how bettors are approaching this number.

3. Josh Jacobs (GB) Under 18.5 Rushing Attempts (-145)

Josh Jacobs enters Week 15 with workload questions firmly in play. The veteran back ranks ninth in the NFL with 209 carries for 817 rushing yards, averaging 17.4 attempts per game, but has gone under this number in seven of 12 games, including six of his past eight. Jacobs also carries a questionable tag after missing practice all week with a knee issue suffered in last week’s win over the Chicago Bears, a game in which he logged 20 carries.

The Denver Broncos present a stiff matchup, ranking second in rushing yards allowed (89.0 per game) and seventh in carries allowed (24.1 per game), which continues to drive interest toward the under.

GB vs DEN Matchup Board: Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

4. Isaiah Likely (BAL) Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (+100)

Isaiah Likely’s receiving prop reflects how quickly usage can swing at the tight end position. The Baltimore Ravens pass catcher has 22 receptions on 32 targets for 248 yards, averaging 24.8 yards per game, and has gone over this total in two of 10 games. One of those came two weeks ago against the Cincinnati Bengals, when Likely set season highs with five catches for 96 yards. The former Coastal Carolina standout has also seen six targets in each of his past two games, both season highs.

Cincinnati’s defense has struggled all season, allowing 254.9 passing yards per game, the second-most in the NFL, and ranking dead last against tight ends, giving up 96.8 receiving yards per game—a full 25 yards more per game than any other team.

BAL vs CIN Matchup Board: Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

5. Khalil Shakir (BUF) Over 4.5 Receptions Made (-105)

Khalil Shakir continues to draw steady market interest as a volume-based option. The Buffalo wideout has 57 catches on 78 targets for 585 yards, averaging 4.4 receptions per game, and has gone over this mark in seven of 13 games. That includes Buffalo’s Week 5 loss to New England, where Shakir hauled in six of nine targets for 45 yards.

The Patriots have been strong against opposing wide receivers, holding them to 10.1 catches per game (tied for seventh) and ranking sixth by allowing quarterbacks just 16 targets per game to WRs, keeping this prop squarely in the volume-driven category rather than a pure matchup play.

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