Prediction Market: NFL Week 14 Best Bets on Kalshi

We’ve analyzed the Week 14 NFL slate to uncover the biggest inefficiencies in the prediction markets. Here are three contracts on Kalshi where the current price offers a clear edge. 

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1. Seattle Seahawks -6.5 (Yes) 

Opponent: @ Atlanta Falcons

SportsGrid Projection: Seahawks by 9.0 points 

This number is too short for the disparity between these two teams. The 9-3 Seahawks are fresh off a 26-0 shutout victory and face a reeling 4-8 Falcons squad that has lost six of its last seven. Atlanta QB Kirk Cousins has struggled to find consistency since taking over for the injured Michael Penix Jr., and will likely be without star WR Drake London (knee) for a third straight game. Seattle’s elite defense oughta be licking its chops.

2. Rams @ Cardinals 47.5 (No)

SportsGrid Projection: 45.1 

The Rams’ defense will be looking for redemption after last week’s stunning 31-28 loss to the Panthers. At the same time, the likely absence of Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) removes the vertical threat Arizona needs to turn this into a shootout. Following QB Matthew Stafford‘s three-turnover performance, we expect Los Angeles to prioritize ball security and lean more on the ground game to keep the clock moving. 

3. Indianapolis Colts -2.5 (Yes)

Opponent: @ Jacksonville Jaguars

SportsGrid Projection: Colts by 4.0 points

The books are predicting the ‘Duval Curse’ ends here, installing the Colts as road favorites, but the line implies a hesitation to trust them fully. While the market is scared to push this spread through the key number of three, our model is not, projecting a 4-point margin that clears the field goal and offers value on the superior roster.

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