Top 5 NFL Week 5 Underdog Picks With Upset Potential

With the NFL season underway, pinpointing the best bets every week can be challenging. Let’s have a look at which upcoming potential upsets to target.

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1. Miami Dolphins vs. Carolina Panthers (-102)

The Carolina Panthers (1-3) are returning to Queen City this Sunday for an interconference tilt against the Miami Dolphins (1-3). The Dolphins are coming off their first victory of the year. However, superstar receiver Tyreek Hill dislocated his knee in their most recent outing. With that, Hill has played his last snap of 2025. It will not help that Miami’s offense has already experienced struggles this season. The ‘Fins are producing 286.3 total YPG right now, which is 26th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Panthers are currently operating with the 19th-best defense in the league. They should match up favorably with Miami, as Carolina has a 51.3% chance of victory (per ESPN Analytics).

2. Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Jets (+120)

Week 5 will feature a clash at MetLife Stadium between the New York Jets (0-4) and the Dallas Cowboys (1-2-1). Dallas is returning to action after producing the NFL’s first outright tie since 2022. Across the way, Gang Green is still searching for their first win of 2025. Still, the Jets’ current numbers are not as poor as their record would indicate. New York is presently ranked 19th in scoring (22.5 PPG). From there, they are churning out 144.5 rushing YPG, which is the league’s third-best clip right now. That could play well against the Cowboys, who have given up an NFL-worst 420.5 total YPG.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+152) vs. Seattle Seahawks

We’ll see a potential playoff preview this Sunday when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) travel to the Seattle Seahawks (3-1). Tampa enters this contest as a significant underdog. However, the Bucs (15-to-1 odds) are listed higher than the Seahawks (16-to-1 odds) within FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFC title market. Currently, Tampa Bay has been the fourth-best defense in terms of yardage allowed: 272.8 YPG. Additionally, I like how the Buccaneers’ skill players match up with Seattle’s secondary; the Seahawks have been scorched for 207.3 YPG through the air, which ranks within the bottom half of the NFL.

4. Washington Commanders (+134) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Washington Commanders (2-2) are thrilled to return quarterback Jayden Daniels to his starting spot this week. With that, Washington will travel cross-country to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (3-1) at SoFi Stadium. The Commanders have been powered by an efficient offense in 2025. They are presently ranked eighth in scoring, registering 26.8 PPG. Meanwhile, the Bolts have dropped all the way to 20th in that same department (22.0 PPG). Washington opened at FanDuel Sportsbook with +152 moneyline odds. However, that number has since been bet down to +134.

5. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+150)

The upcoming iteration of Monday Night Football will feature the Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) in Duval County. With the way Jacksonville’s defense has operated in 2025, I think they can have their way with a struggling Chiefs offense. The Jags have caused 13 takeaways to this point, which boasts a significant lead over the next best team in the turnover category. Additionally, Kansas City’s offense is currently ranked 14th in scoring and 16th in yardage, which falls below their championship standards. A similar Jags team nearly took out the Chiefs in the 2023 Divisional playoff. With that, I think Jacksonville will earn a little revenge on Monday.

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