2025 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs: Stars vs Oilers WCF Game 4 Best Bets

As the Western Conference Final reaches a critical Game 4, the Edmonton Oilers hold a 2–1 edge over the Dallas Stars. The ice has felt far more level than the scoreboard might suggest. With that in mind, there’s betting value in looking beyond traditional markets and targeting situational props that capture the underlying dynamics of this razor-close series.

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Oilers vs Stars Best Game Pick

Edmonton may be riding momentum, but they haven’t dominated possession or chance creation to justify the recent results. The Oilers have put up 12 goals through three games, fueled mainly by sharp finishing rather than volume, just 28 high-danger chances, with only one game in double digits.

On the flip side, Dallas has been more active in the offensive zone than the goal tally shows. Over Games 2 and 3, the Stars fired 56 scoring chances and 24 high-danger attempts at Stuart Skinner, yet came away with just a single goal. This disconnect points to major positive regression.

So far in the playoffs, Dallas has converted at 7.2% at 5-on-5 and 10.0% overall. Those numbers have cratered to 2.0% and 1.7% in this series. If the Stars’ shooting normalizes, and Edmonton’s efficiency regresses even slightly, Game 4 will be a closely contested war that might not be settled in regulation. At +330, the draw line offers serious value.

Best Bet: 60-Minute Tie (+330)

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Oilers vs Stars Top Player Prop

Game 4 presents a prime rebound opportunity for Mikko Rantanen, who’s overdue for a breakout. Despite tallying just two points in his last five outings, Rantanen has been logging elite usage—15 shots on goal, nearly 22 minutes per night, and a team-leading rate in both scoring chances (12.3) and high-danger looks (5.7) per game among Stars forwards.

He’s also being deployed offensively 66.4% of the time, the highest OZ start rate on the roster. Analytics suggest Rantanen’s impact should be greater: he’s been on the ice for 23 goals this postseason, while expected goals data projects that number closer to 25.1.

Rather than settle for the standard over 0.5 points prop, there’s better value in backing him to record two or more at +235—especially in a must-respond spot for Dallas, where their top line needs to deliver.

Best Bet: Mikko Rantanen to Record 2+ Points +235

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The Oilers may lead the series, but the Stars have outplayed them in key areas, setting the stage for a dramatic Game 4. A regulation tie leans into how evenly matched these teams are, while Mikko Rantanen’s usage and underlying metrics signal that a breakout performance is imminent. Both props offer value for bettors looking to capitalize on playoff volatility.