NHL · 1 year ago

Exploring the Top 5 Value Candidates in Conn Smythe Betting

Grant White

Host · Writer

Evan Bouchard
Conn Smythe Odds: +24000

All the Conn Smythe love is going to Connor McDavid. The Oilers captain is the odds-on favorite to claim the postseason MVP award, but we can't look past Evan Bouchard's immense value.

Bouchard is currently priced at an exorbitant +24000, which doesn't do him justice. The Oilers rearguard already has 11 points in seven games, including two game-winning goals. That puts him second among defensemen in playoff scoring, with the fewest games played. That matches last year's energy, in which Bouchard led all d-men in scoring despite getting eliminated in the second round.

It might not be reflected in the betting price, but you can be sure that Evan Bouchard will remain an integral part of the Oilers' attack. He may have been snubbed in the Norris Trophy voting, but we don't expect Bouchard to get skunked in Conn Smythe voting if the Oilers hoist Lord Stanley's mug.
Jason Robertson
Conn Smythe Odds: +2100

The Dallas Stars have staked themselves to a second-round lead over the Colorado Avalanche. Although they are still six wins away from the Stanley Cup Final, the Stars have asserted themselves as a contender for hockey's Holy Grail. As usual, Jason Robertson has been a driving force in the team's success, a fact that is not reflected in his Conn Smythe odds.

Heading into Game 4, Robertson is priced at an appealing +2100 in the futures market. The Stars' top scorer from the regular season has sustained his production early in the postseason, but there's more room to grow for the former 46-goal scorer.

As it stands, Robertson is operating well below his expected goals-for-range. Through ten playoff games, his actual goals-for rating of 40.0% at five-on-five is 10.6% lower than expected. Predictably, he's also skating around with a slightly deflated .995 PDO.

Those metrics will start to adjust, bringing his Conn Smythe price down in the future. Now is the best time to secure maximum value with Robertson as the playoff MVP.
Sergei Bobrovsky
Conn Smythe Odds: +2200

Sergei Bobrovsky has shaken his lackluster postseason reputation over the last couple of years, but bettors still aren't giving him the respect he deserves. The Florida Panthers netminder is a distant +2200 in the Conn Smythe futures market, making him a top-value pick.

Florida has done an excellent job of insulating their goaltender, but Bobrovsky has been solid when called upon. Moreover, he's a natural progression candidate as his save percentage and goals-against average remain below his season average.

The longer the Panthers hang around, the shorter Bobrovsky's odds will drop. Given the relative ease thus far, the reigning Eastern Conference Champions will face little resistance en route to their second straight Stanley Cup final.
Artemi Panarin
Conn Smythe Odds: +3000

Of course, if there's one team that can de-rail the Panthers championship aspirations, it's the New York Rangers. Through two rounds, the Broadway Blueshirts have steamrolled the competition and could be well on the way to their first finals appearance since 2014.

After leading the Rangers with 120 points in the regular season, Artemi Panarin has been relatively quiet early in the postseason. His nine points in eight games put him fourth on the team, but he has sustained his elite analytics profile. Panarin's 55 scoring and 22 high-danger chances at five-on-five rank third and fourth on the team, respectively. Still, his actual goals-for percentage remains below expected.

The Rangers deploy Panarin under the most ideal circumstances. He leads all forwards in powerplay ice time, while his 89.7% offensive zone start rate ranks third on the team.

We have yet to see Panarin reach his usual heights. But you'll want to hold a Conn Smythe futures ticket at the current offering when he does.
JT Miller
Conn Smythe Odds: +6000

No one gave the Vancouver Canucks a chance heading into the second round. The Canucks were priced as substantive +190 underdogs ahead of Game 1 versus the Edmonton Oilers. They still have their work cut out for them, but if the Canucks can make it to the Stanley Cup Final, they'll have JT Miller to thank.

Miller leads all Canucks skaters with nine points in eight games. Further, he's deployed under any circumstance, playing on the powerplay, penalty kill, and four-on-four. With that, he has one of the most robust Conn Smythe profiles of any player.

Miller's price is a reflection of the Canucks' disproportionate Stanley Cup odds. However, Miller gives Vancouver the best chance of capturing the Cup. If you're a believer in the Canucks, you should be a believer in Miller as the Conn Smythe winner.
Evan Bouchard
Conn Smythe Odds: +24000

All the Conn Smythe love is going to Connor McDavid. The Oilers captain is the odds-on favorite to claim the postseason MVP award, but we can't look past Evan Bouchard's immense value.

Bouchard is currently priced at an exorbitant +24000, which doesn't do him justice. The Oilers rearguard already has 11 points in seven games, including two game-winning goals. That puts him second among defensemen in playoff scoring, with the fewest games played. That matches last year's energy, in which Bouchard led all d-men in scoring despite getting eliminated in the second round.

It might not be reflected in the betting price, but you can be sure that Evan Bouchard will remain an integral part of the Oilers' attack. He may have been snubbed in the Norris Trophy voting, but we don't expect Bouchard to get skunked in Conn Smythe voting if the Oilers hoist Lord Stanley's mug.
Jason Robertson
Conn Smythe Odds: +2100

The Dallas Stars have staked themselves to a second-round lead over the Colorado Avalanche. Although they are still six wins away from the Stanley Cup Final, the Stars have asserted themselves as a contender for hockey's Holy Grail. As usual, Jason Robertson has been a driving force in the team's success, a fact that is not reflected in his Conn Smythe odds.

Heading into Game 4, Robertson is priced at an appealing +2100 in the futures market. The Stars' top scorer from the regular season has sustained his production early in the postseason, but there's more room to grow for the former 46-goal scorer.

As it stands, Robertson is operating well below his expected goals-for-range. Through ten playoff games, his actual goals-for rating of 40.0% at five-on-five is 10.6% lower than expected. Predictably, he's also skating around with a slightly deflated .995 PDO.

Those metrics will start to adjust, bringing his Conn Smythe price down in the future. Now is the best time to secure maximum value with Robertson as the playoff MVP.

Exploring the Top 5 Value Candidates in Conn Smythe Betting

Conn Smythe Odds: +24000

Conn Smythe Odds: +2100

Conn Smythe Odds: +2200

Conn Smythe Odds: +3000

Conn Smythe Odds: +6000

Conn Smythe Odds: +24000

Conn Smythe Odds: +2100

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