NFL · 1 year ago

6 Best Anytime Touchdown Bets for Broncos vs. Bills on MNF

Ben DiGiacomo

Host · Writer

Players to Fade: RB1s
Javonte Williams only has one touchdown this season and it’s not even a rushing touchdown. With the Broncos likely to be trailing, where is the value at +140? James Cook only has two touchdowns on the season, one in the air and one on the ground, but at +130, why back Cook when you can get Josh Allen at +110? The Broncos' rush defense doesn’t look great on paper, but much of that’s inflated by the Dolphins' 70-point outing. Across the past three weeks, the Broncos have only given up 98 yards per game on the ground, so we’re not expecting the Bills to lean on Cook much at all when they want to be pass-first regardless.
Stefon Diggs (-110)
Stefon Diggs is Ol’ reliable for us, and while this number sitting at -110 isn’t ideal, we know what Diggs is capable of. We don’t need to worry about a lack of production, as he’s had at least six receptions and 58 yards in every game and combined for seven touchdowns across eight games. At -110, there is still value to be found with Diggs, but if you want to boost this to +140, make it parlay with Diggs to also record 6+ receptions and 60+ yards.
Josh Allen (+110)
Josh Allen has found the endzone with his legs in six of the Bills’ last seven games. What else is there to say?
Courtland Sutton (+200)
Courtland Sutton’s volume has been dipping, but he’s Russell Wilson’s go-to guy in the red zone and he still continually is finding the endzone. At +200, Sutton has had a touchdown in six of eight games this year, so I don’t know how you don’t bet this given the value it holds.
Dalton Kincaid (+185)
Dalton Kincaid has been surging as of late, averaging roughly eight catches and 74 yards per game across his last three outings. Even though he only has a single touchdown to show for it, he has an ideal matchup tonight against a Broncos defense that’s given up 71 yards per game to opposing tight ends, the highest mark in the NFL. At +185, I’ve convinced myself to throw a few sprinkles on this play.
Jerry Jeudy (+300)
Jerry Jeudy only has a single touchdown this season, but he’s been the Broncos WR1 these past five weeks so I can’t believe we’re getting +300 odds on an NFL team’s WR1 to score a touchdown. We were getting Diontae Johnson at only +200 who had not scored a touchdown in two years up until last week! I’ll only be putting a small wager on this play, but 3-1 odds on a WR1 is too good for me to pass up on.
Gabe Davis (+220)
I’ll never bet a receiving prop with Gabe Davis since he’s far too inconsistent, but at +220, I can absolutely convince myself to bet on him finding the endzone. He ranks second on the team in red-zone targets, not far behind Diggs, and he has a touchdown in five of nine games this season. Pivoting to Khalil Shakir at +350 is worth considering, as he’s been far more reliable these past three weeks, but we know the high ceiling Davis can have. At +220, I’d rather back the more proven commodity.
Players to Fade: RB1s
Javonte Williams only has one touchdown this season and it’s not even a rushing touchdown. With the Broncos likely to be trailing, where is the value at +140? James Cook only has two touchdowns on the season, one in the air and one on the ground, but at +130, why back Cook when you can get Josh Allen at +110? The Broncos' rush defense doesn’t look great on paper, but much of that’s inflated by the Dolphins' 70-point outing. Across the past three weeks, the Broncos have only given up 98 yards per game on the ground, so we’re not expecting the Bills to lean on Cook much at all when they want to be pass-first regardless.
Stefon Diggs (-110)
Stefon Diggs is Ol’ reliable for us, and while this number sitting at -110 isn’t ideal, we know what Diggs is capable of. We don’t need to worry about a lack of production, as he’s had at least six receptions and 58 yards in every game and combined for seven touchdowns across eight games. At -110, there is still value to be found with Diggs, but if you want to boost this to +140, make it parlay with Diggs to also record 6+ receptions and 60+ yards.