With a 3-0 lead in the NBA’s Eastern Conference Finals, the Miami Heat will look to pull off the improbable sweep over the Boston Celtics tonight in Game 4.

All odds courtesy of the FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Boston Celtics (+102) vs. Miami Heat (-120) Total: 216.5 (O-110, U-110)

The Miami Heat aren’t getting the respect they deserve, even though they sit just one victory away from playing in the NBA Finals. Instead, the focus has been on what the Celtics have done wrong in this matchup, where it should be more focused on the Heat and their elite brand of team basketball. This Miami squad is extremely impressive. Sure, they only have one superstar player, Jimmy Butler, but they work very well together and have one of the top coaches in the league, Erik Spoelstra. 

Heading into Game 4, the Heat are listed as tight favorites on the moneyline and spread. Miami’s listed as -120 on the moneyline, compared to the C’s at +102. In addition, Miami is also a 1.5-point favorite on the spread. 

In Game 3, as the series shifted to Miami, we expected the Celtics to have a response and get on the board in the matchup. Instead, the Heat put together a dominant performance and blew Boston out of the gym, running away with a 26-point victory. It will be very telling tonight how the Celtics respond with their backs against the wall. We aren’t going to project a blowout victory for Miami again, but the Heat have been too good in this matchup to look away from the value they’re creating tonight at home. As a result, targeting the Heat on the spread is the direction bettors should look at tonight. 

Best Bet: Heat -1.5 (-110)

Looking at their four regular season matchups, they combined to score 215, 255, 236, and 193 points. In addition, the Heat and Celtics have combined to score 239, 216, and 230 total points in this playoff series. The total for Game 4 is 216.5, with the over and under priced at -110. They would have exceeded tonight’s total in four contests throughout their seven matchups this season. With what we’ve seen, Miami seems comfortable to play any which way, but we like for the trends of a high-scoring series to continue tonight in Game 4, meaning we’ll be happy to back the over. 

Best Bet: Over 216.5 (-110) 

If you’re looking for a player to close out a series, look no further than Jimmy Butler. He has the killer instinct needed to take charge in this type of atmosphere, and you know he won’t want to give the Celtics any hope of getting back in this series, especially not on his home court. Butler is coming off a 16-point Game 3, well below the 35 and 27 points he tallied in Games 1 and 2. With the Heat having the chance to close out Boston tonight, we’re looking at Butler’s points prop, which is set at 27.5. The number is slightly juiced at -122 for him to go over, but we really see the value it presents. 

Best Prop: Jimmy Butler to Record Over 27.5 Points (-122) 

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