The Miami Heat will be looking to take a 3-1 stranglehold on their best-of-seven series with the New York Knicks when they host them for Game 4 tonight.

Odds courtesy of the FanDuel Sportsbook. 

New York Knicks (+156) vs. Miami Heat (-186) Total: 208.5 (O-110, U-110)

If you’re looking for a surprise team that’s done damage in the NBA postseason, look no further than the Miami Heat. They upset the top-seed Milwaukee Bucks in the first round of the playoffs and boast a 2-1 series lead over the New York Knicks heading into Game 4 at home tonight. Miami has been very impressive as a team in the playoffs, and a lot of that credit will likely go to Jimmy Butler, but head coach Erik Spoelstra should be getting his flowers, too.

Miami’s head coach is proving why he’s one of the tops in the sport this postseason, and his team is favored to win Game 4 on both the spread and moneyline. The Heat are 4.5-point favorites, along with sitting at -186 on the moneyline, compared to the Knicks sitting at +156.

Even after the Knicks won Game 2 at home, they haven’t done much of anything to prove that they’re a team worth backing in this series. Miami has had an answer for them defensively, and the Knicks haven’t been able to get any offensive rhythm going. You won’t find a team more fundamentally sound than Miami, meaning they likely underachieved as a whole in the regular season and were under-seeded. 

There aren’t many flaws in this Miami group, who continue to play a next-level brand of team basketball. With Butler running the show offensively, it isn’t easy to envision Miami dropping this fourth game on homecourt. Their moneyline price is acceptable, but we like them to cover the spread and win this matchup by five or more points. 

Best Bet: Heat -4.5 (-112)

The first three games in this series have seen 209, 216, and 191 points scored. The total for Game 4 is 208.5, with the over and under priced equally at -110. It’s an exciting line to look at when you factor in that two of the three games have exceeded the number. Game 3 saw the Knicks shoot a dismal 34% from the floor. It’s hard to see that trend continuing after they hit 47.7% in Game 1, followed by 45.1% in Game 2. The Knicks should positively regress to the mean, which has us strongly leaning towards the over 206.5 to transpire in this Game 4. 

Best Bet: Over 208.5 (-110) 

There have been many strong performers in terms of superstar players in the 2023 NBA playoffs, but you can also make a real case that Jimmy Butler’s been the best of the bunch for Miami. Watching what he’s accomplished on both ends of the court in the playoffs has been must-watch basketball, and we expect that to continue in Game 4 tonight. Butler’s over-under point total is listed at 28.5 tonight, which he’s gone over in four games in the postseason. In the two games, he’s suited up for this series, he’s yet to exceed 30 points, but we’re fully expecting that to change in tonight’s Game 4. 

Best Prop: Jimmy Butler Over 28.5 Points (-108)