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NBA · 3 weeks ago

New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview

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New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview for NBA Basketball Game on 05/12

Date: 05/12/2023
Time: 07:30 PM
Venue: Kaseya Center
 

The Miami Heat are set to take on the New York Knicks in the next chapter of their thrilling NBA playoff series, with the Heat being the favored at -6 on the spread. The total is set at 207.5. Miami is poised to continue its flawless home run this postseason, with Jimmy Butler primed to bounce back after his rare sub-20-point game.

There’s a question mark hanging over Jalen Brunson of the Knicks, who played an exhausting 48 minutes in Game 5. Can he sustain such intensity, especially on the road? Despite this, the Knicks have proven they can surprise us, as demonstrated in their impressive home game performance.

The spread for the Knicks is six points. This grey area of more than two possessions could prove crucial, considering the game’s 207.5-point total. Every possession will matter, and this contest could be decided in a few pivotal moments.

The Knicks’ decision to play their stars through the end of their last game, treating it like a Game 7, proved beneficial. However, the same aggressive strategy may now prove challenging, particularly for Brunson, who might be expected to replicate his 48-minute performance. Knicks’ coach Tom Thibodeau will likely face this critical decision.

The Heat, throughout the series, have shown their superior quality as a team. Despite the Knicks’ impressive home game, Miami is the favored team for a reason. They’ve demonstrated a stronger overall performance, and with Butler potentially shining tonight, the scales lean further in the Heat’s favor.

However, the 6-point line for the Heat does give pause. While it’s likely Miami will win, the final score may be a close call, such as 104-100 or 104-101, especially considering Butler’s bunch isn’t known for high-scoring games. Nonetheless, if you believe in the Heat’s superiority, laying the 6-points seems to be the move.

We shouldn’t forget about the Knicks’ Quentin Grimes. His over for 5.5 rebounds+assists (-142) has been consistent every time he’s played at least 40 minutes this season, both regular and postseason. That’s an impressive 8-0. When he’s played 38 minutes, he’s 12-1 to the over. As long as Grimes gets 40 minutes on the court in Game 6 against Miami, expect him to go over his player prop.

Betting Odds @ FanDuel

    Spread Total Moneyline
New York Knicks  Open +4   -110   O 210   -110   +146  
 Current +6   -110   207.5   -110   +200  
Miami Heat  Open -4   -110   U 210   -110   -174  
 Current -6   -110   207.5   -110   -245  

Projected Lineups:

New York Knicks

1. PG  Jalen Brunson   24.0 Points, 3.5 Rebounds, 6.2 Assists
2. PF  Julius Randle   25.1 Points, 10.0 Rebounds, 4.1 Assists
3. SG  RJ Barrett   19.6 Points, 5.0 Rebounds, 2.8 Assists
4. SG  Quentin Grimes   11.3 Points, 3.2 Rebounds, 2.1 Assists
5. C  Mitchell Robinson   7.4 Points, 9.4 Rebounds, 0.9 Assists
6. C  Isaiah Hartenstein   5.0 Points, 6.5 Rebounds, 1.2 Assists

Miami Heat

1. SF  Jimmy Butler   22.9 Points, 5.9 Rebounds, 5.3 Assists
2. C  Bam Adebayo   20.4 Points, 9.2 Rebounds, 3.2 Assists
3. PG  Kyle Lowry   11.2 Points, 4.1 Rebounds, 5.1 Assists
4. PF  Kevin Love   8.2 Points, 6.4 Rebounds, 1.9 Assists
5. SG  Max Strus   11.5 Points, 3.2 Rebounds, 2.1 Assists
6. PF  Caleb Martin   9.6 Points, 4.8 Rebounds, 1.6 Assists

Last 5 Against The Spread:

New York Knicks

DATE OPP SPREAD TOTAL SCORE
Wed, May 10 MIA -3.5 209.5 112-103
Mon, May 08 MIA +4.5 209.5 109-101
Sat, May 06 MIA +4.0 207.0 105-86
Tue, May 02 MIA -10.0 207.5 111-105
Sun, Apr 30 MIA -4.0 210.0 108-101

Miami Heat

DATE OPP SPREAD TOTAL SCORE
Wed, May 10 NY +3.5 209.5 112-103
Mon, May 08 NY -4.5 209.5 109-101
Sat, May 06 NY -4.0 207.0 105-86
Tue, May 02 NY +10.0 207.5 111-105
Sun, Apr 30 NY +4.0 210.0 108-101

Betting Insights:

Miami Heat

  • 4-1 (.800) against the spread at home as a favorite in their last five games across the regular season and playoffs in 2022/2023
  • 4-1 (.800) at home as a favorite in their last five games across the regular season and playoffs in 2022/2023

New York Knicks

  • 2-3 (.400) against the spread on the road as an underdog in their last five games in the 2022/2023 playoffs
  • 2-3 (.400) on the road as an underdog in their last five games in the 2022/2023 playoffs

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