Recalibrating the NBA’s Eastern Conference Finals

Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals was a surprising upset, as the Miami Heat pulled off an impressive win against the Boston Celtics on their home court. The odds sit with the Celtics at -220 and the Heat at +170, despite Miami having an early lead in the series.



You can’t dismiss the entire regular season, but it’s also true that the postseason can paint a different picture. While Miami and Boston have maintained largely consistent teams throughout the year, the postseason narratives for both teams have diverged from their regular seasons.



Boston, in particular, has been underwhelming. Their struggles against Atlanta, where they lost a crucial Game 5 at home, and the grueling seven-game series against Philadelphia, where they lost at home to the Sixers without Joel Embiid, are prime examples.



Boston just hasn’t been as impressive as anticipated. It would have made sense if the series price of -220 on the C’s was set before the ECF. However, with Miami leading 1-0, the pricing seems off. There might have been an argument for value on Boston after losing Game 1, but that window never really opened.



Ultimately, the Heat are not the same team they were during the regular season. After beating the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks and getting past the New York Knicks in six games, their victory against the Celtics should not be shocking.



Despite being a game down and losing the home-court advantage, why does Boston remain a significant favorite? It could result from their ability to bounce back after a loss – which they’ve done four times this postseason, winning those games by an average of 9.3 points.



However, the fact remains that Miami has consistently played the role of the spoiler in these playoffs. Boston’s evolution this postseason has made them an incredibly polished and formidable defensive force. But the question is: Can they sustain this level of performance in the face of Miami’s challenge?



The series is now in an exciting place for bettors. Those favoring a Celtics victory in six or seven games now see much more appealing odds due to the shift in the moneyline. The ebbs and flows of the NBA are unpredictable, but one thing is clear – Miami is not simply satisfied with stealing a game in Boston. They are coming for a win in Game 2.