Top 5 Super Bowl LVIII MVP Candidates: Bet or Pass?
Grant White
Host · Writer
Deebo Samuel +2000
Low-key, Deebo Samuel is the best value on the Super Bowl MVP board. Samuel was a leader in the Niners' comeback over the Lions, and we continue to see flashes of his former All-Pro self. Kyle Shanahan isn't afraid to incorporate Samuel into every facet of the offense. With an extra week to get healthy, we could see Samuel outperform everyone else on the field in Las Vegas.
Although he's taken a backseat in the ground game in the latter part of the campaign, Samuel remains one of the most dynamic players in the league. For the second time in three years, the fifth-year pro exceeded 1,000 yards from scrimmage, accumulating 892 receiving and 225 rushing yards. Few players can match that production, amplifying Samuel's MVP profile.
Samuel's emotion was palpable in the NFC Championship, and we know that he can ratchet it higher in the Super Bowl. If he's an inspirational leader, matching his usual production, Samuel will garner much attention as MVP.
Bet or Pass?
Bet
Patrick Mahomes +140
It's no secret. The Kansas City Chiefs live and die with Patrick Mahomes. In his six seasons as a starter, the two-time All-Pro has led his team to the Super Bowl four times, winning in two of his first three trips. Moreover, Mahomes was named MVP in both of those victories. As such, no one should be surprised to see him atop the Super Bowl LVIII MVP futures board as the +140 betting favorite. If you're considering backing a Chiefs player, this is the man.
Mahomes has been straight-up filthy over the last couple of weeks. Since the Divisional Round, the Chiefs' quarterback has completed 47 of 62 passes for 456 yards and three touchdowns. That 75.8% completion rate is his best two-game sample of the season, and his 7.4 yards per pass attempt put him ahead of his season average.
Kansas City's only chance of claiming their third Super Bowl title in four years runs through Mahomes. If they pull off the upset, all credit goes to him again.
Bet or Pass?
Bet
Brock Purdy +200
There's an argument to be made that the San Francisco 49ers have made it to the Super Bowl despite Brock Purdy, not because of him. The second-year pro has looked underwhelming, taking the first half off in both playoff contests before turning things around later in games. Still, most sportsbooks hang Purdy right behind Mahomes, around the +200 range. And that price is worth passing up.
The moment has been too big for Purdy in the playoffs. Sure, he's salvaged his efforts later in games, but his metrics still look bad. In two playoff games, the Niners' pivot has a subpar 61.4% completion percentage, with two touchdowns to one interception. Further, his 7.4 yards per pass attempt is more than two yards lower than his regular season average of 9.6.
Unless there's an award for second-half MVP, there's no sense in sinking money into Purdy.
Bet or Pass?
Pass
Christian McCaffrey +450
Since the start of the season, Christian McCaffrey has been the 49ers' MVP. The recently named All-Pro led the league in rushing yards while also serving as one of the most efficient pass-catching backs across the NFL. The 49ers' success depends on McCaffrey, and it's about time he gets recognized for it.
McCaffrey's workload is second to none. He's accounted for 260 of the Niners' 769 yards in the postseason, representing 33.8% of the offensive production. Additionally, he's broken the century mark in scrimmage yards in both outings, churning out 188 rushing yards on 37 carries and adding 72 yards in the passing game.
More notably, he has found paydirt four times in the playoffs. His six-yard jaunt with 1:11 left in the fourth quarter gave the 49ers the lead in the Divisional Round. Then he tied things up against the Detroit Lions at the end of the third quarter in the NFC Championship. Every time something big happens, it's usually because of McCaffrey.
This might be an unpopular opinion, but McCaffrey should be priced higher than Purdy. Backing him at +450 is a no-brainer.
Bet or Pass?
Bet
Travis Kelce +1700
Did you know that a tight end has never been named Super Bowl MVP? We're not expecting that to change in Super Bowl LVIII.
Other than one great game in the Championship Round, Travis Kelce has looked unimpressive this season. Before his immaculate outing against the Baltimore Ravens, Kelce hadn't looked good. His 984 receiving yards was his lowest output since 2015, and his 10.6 yards per reception was the worst of his career.
Granted, Kelce has turned a corner with his playoff performances, but it's still not worth the gamble. It's improbable that Kelce can replicate his recent success against the 49ers pass defense, and there are too many weapons in the Chiefs' offense for Kelce to shine on his own.
Bet or Pass?
Pass
Deebo Samuel +2000
Low-key, Deebo Samuel is the best value on the Super Bowl MVP board. Samuel was a leader in the Niners' comeback over the Lions, and we continue to see flashes of his former All-Pro self. Kyle Shanahan isn't afraid to incorporate Samuel into every facet of the offense. With an extra week to get healthy, we could see Samuel outperform everyone else on the field in Las Vegas.
Although he's taken a backseat in the ground game in the latter part of the campaign, Samuel remains one of the most dynamic players in the league. For the second time in three years, the fifth-year pro exceeded 1,000 yards from scrimmage, accumulating 892 receiving and 225 rushing yards. Few players can match that production, amplifying Samuel's MVP profile.
Samuel's emotion was palpable in the NFC Championship, and we know that he can ratchet it higher in the Super Bowl. If he's an inspirational leader, matching his usual production, Samuel will garner much attention as MVP.
Bet or Pass?
Bet
Patrick Mahomes +140
It's no secret. The Kansas City Chiefs live and die with Patrick Mahomes. In his six seasons as a starter, the two-time All-Pro has led his team to the Super Bowl four times, winning in two of his first three trips. Moreover, Mahomes was named MVP in both of those victories. As such, no one should be surprised to see him atop the Super Bowl LVIII MVP futures board as the +140 betting favorite. If you're considering backing a Chiefs player, this is the man.
Mahomes has been straight-up filthy over the last couple of weeks. Since the Divisional Round, the Chiefs' quarterback has completed 47 of 62 passes for 456 yards and three touchdowns. That 75.8% completion rate is his best two-game sample of the season, and his 7.4 yards per pass attempt put him ahead of his season average.
Kansas City's only chance of claiming their third Super Bowl title in four years runs through Mahomes. If they pull off the upset, all credit goes to him again.
Bet or Pass?
Bet
