NFL · 1 year ago

Whose Defense Has the Edge in Super Bowl LVIII? Chiefs or 49ers?

Grant White

Host · Writer

Safeties
Of course, no secondary would be complete without its safeties. Thankfully for Chiefs fans, that's another advantage for the AFC representatives.

Justin Reid led the team in tackles this season, compiling 95 in 16 games. But, as expected, his actual value was preventing the opposition from picking up any yards via the pass. Reid allowed a career-best 6.2 yards per target and 9.8 yards per completion this season, with an impressive 62.9% completion percentage in defending 62 passes. For comparison sake, Ji'Ayir Brown's metrics came in at 16.5 and 10.3, respectively, with a comparable 62.5% completion rating.

San Francisco might have an advantage through the first two layers of the defense, but the tide turns as we get into the secondary. That's even more true as we look at the safeties on both squads.

Both teams have made a living off solid defensive play this season, but only one will be crowned Super Bowl Champions!
Defensive Line
Whichever team emerges victorious from Super Bowl LVIII will prove the adage right: defense wins championships. That's because the winning team gets to boast about how they slowed down one of the best offenses in the NFL.

We all know what the Kansas City Chiefs' defensive line brings. Chris Jones has anchored the interior for the last eight years, establishing himself as a perennial All-Pro contender and disruptive presence. However, Jones has less upside than his San Francisco 49ers defensive line counterparts.

In the head-to-head Most Tackles + Assists category, Jones is a +164 underdog versus Javon Hargrave, currently listed at -205. Hargrave totaled 4.0 combined tackles in the NFC Championship Game. However, it was the first time he recorded more than 1.0 tackles since a Week 16 contest versus the Baltimore Ravens. Still, that's without considering what Tershawn Wharton and Arik Armstead bring. Arguably, Armstead has been the more imposing force, giving San Francisco the edge as a whole.

Betting-wise, we like Chris Jones in the head-to-head tackles + assists battle vs. Hargrave. But the more prominent victory goes to the Niners, who have a more solid interior than the Chiefs.
Edge
This one probably isn't that close. And you are probably correctly assuming who has an advantage on the edge.

San Francisco is anchored by two of the fiercest edge rushers in the game. After coming off the bench in all nine appearances during the regular season, Chase Young has started both playoff games for the Niners. Over that modest stretch, he's compiled 6.0 tackles while acting as a synergistic force opposite Nick Bosa. Bosa has maintained his All-Pro form in the postseason, totaling 6.0 tackles, two TFLs, 2.0 sacks, and nine quarterback hits.

That advantage is also reflected in the betting market. Bosa is a -152 favorite to record more tackles + assists than George Karlaftis. The Chiefs' offensive line might be up to the task, but the Niners' edge rushers are the superior asset.
Linebackers
We give the San Francisco 49ers the edge for the third straight category.

Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw have been a two-man wrecking crew for the Niners. The duo combined for 252 tackles during the regular season, adding 4.0 sacks, 15 pass deflections, four interceptions, and four forced fumbles. Additionally, they've added 35 tackles and three pass deflections in two playoff games.

That's not to discount the Chiefs' trio of Willie Gay, Nick Bolton, and Drue Tranquill, but most people would be willing to concede that the 49ers have a better linebacker corps.

This is one of the few circumstances where a Chiefs player has the advantage in the head-to-head prop. Bolton is a slim -132 favorite over Greenlaw (+108) to outpace him in tackles + assists.
Cornerbacks
For the first time, the balance tilts in favor of the Chiefs. Led by L'Jarius Sneed, Kansas City has a battle-tested group of playmakers in the secondary that can shut down the Niners' offense.

The Chiefs have flashed their defensive superiority all season, but they've dialed up the intensity in the playoffs. Kansas City has limited its three postseason opponents to a combined 629 passing yards, with only the Ravens exceeding 188.

San Francisco gets some points for craftiness with their cornerbacks, but they don't come close to matching the Chiefs' top-end talent.

The betting market aligns with that opinion, installing Trent McDuffie as the favorite to outpace Charvarius Ward in tackles.
Safeties
Of course, no secondary would be complete without its safeties. Thankfully for Chiefs fans, that's another advantage for the AFC representatives.

Justin Reid led the team in tackles this season, compiling 95 in 16 games. But, as expected, his actual value was preventing the opposition from picking up any yards via the pass. Reid allowed a career-best 6.2 yards per target and 9.8 yards per completion this season, with an impressive 62.9% completion percentage in defending 62 passes. For comparison sake, Ji'Ayir Brown's metrics came in at 16.5 and 10.3, respectively, with a comparable 62.5% completion rating.

San Francisco might have an advantage through the first two layers of the defense, but the tide turns as we get into the secondary. That's even more true as we look at the safeties on both squads.

Both teams have made a living off solid defensive play this season, but only one will be crowned Super Bowl Champions!
Defensive Line
Whichever team emerges victorious from Super Bowl LVIII will prove the adage right: defense wins championships. That's because the winning team gets to boast about how they slowed down one of the best offenses in the NFL.

We all know what the Kansas City Chiefs' defensive line brings. Chris Jones has anchored the interior for the last eight years, establishing himself as a perennial All-Pro contender and disruptive presence. However, Jones has less upside than his San Francisco 49ers defensive line counterparts.

In the head-to-head Most Tackles + Assists category, Jones is a +164 underdog versus Javon Hargrave, currently listed at -205. Hargrave totaled 4.0 combined tackles in the NFC Championship Game. However, it was the first time he recorded more than 1.0 tackles since a Week 16 contest versus the Baltimore Ravens. Still, that's without considering what Tershawn Wharton and Arik Armstead bring. Arguably, Armstead has been the more imposing force, giving San Francisco the edge as a whole.

Betting-wise, we like Chris Jones in the head-to-head tackles + assists battle vs. Hargrave. But the more prominent victory goes to the Niners, who have a more solid interior than the Chiefs.