American League MVP Race Tightens: Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees and Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners Stats Battle
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Two Historic Seasons Collide
The 2025 American League MVP race is shaping up as one of the most compelling debates in recent memory. Judge and Raleigh are both putting up seasons worthy of the award—and in most years, either would run away with it. Instead, voters are left to decide between two rare statistical outliers:
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Cal Raleigh: 60 home runs, .954 OPS, and the added weight of playing one of the toughest defensive positions in baseball.
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Aaron Judge: A superior batting average, a significantly higher OPS, and massive run production—though trailing Raleigh in raw home runs and RBIs.
Only a handful of players in the past decade have produced a WAR north of 9. Both Judge and Raleigh are doing it this season, creating a true coin-flip scenario for voters.
The Case for Cal Raleigh
Raleigh’s candidacy is built on two pillars: raw power and positional value. Reaching the 60-homer milestone as a catcher is nothing short of historic. The physical demands of squatting behind the plate 140–150 times in a season add an element of endurance that no corner outfielder or DH can claim.
His power has fueled Seattle’s playoff run, and there’s a narrative element here too—the “breakout star” season that voters often gravitate toward when deciding between an established superstar and a first-time MVP candidate.
The Case for Aaron Judge
From a purely analytical perspective, Judge’s profile is stronger. His OPS dwarfs Raleigh’s, and his overall offensive value leads most advanced metrics. If MVP voting were run through a computer, Judge would likely be the output. He’s also the more consistent hitter, with fewer prolonged slumps and more lineup-carrying stretches across the season.
The knock? Voter fatigue. Judge has already won an MVP, and voters may be tempted to reward Raleigh’s unique season instead of giving the Yankees slugger a second trophy.
Betting Market Breakdown
Sportsbooks currently have Raleigh listed as the favorite, while Judge has drifted to +155. That reflects both Raleigh’s milestone homer total and the narrative strength of his candidacy. But the race isn’t over:
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If Judge finishes with a torrid September, he can close the gap. A run of multi-homer games could flip the perception.
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If Raleigh slumps or Seattle fades from contention, the odds will tighten.
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Betting either way comes down to preference: play the chalk with Raleigh, or bet on a Judge hot streak at plus money.
Verdict: A Rare Win-Win Scenario
There’s no wrong answer this season. Raleigh has delivered a season that redefines expectations for catchers, while Judge continues to build his Hall of Fame resume with another elite campaign. From a betting perspective, Raleigh has the inside track, but Judge remains live—and his odds carry value if you believe in one more late-season surge.
Pick: Raleigh stays in front, but Judge at +155 is worth a sprinkle.
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