MLB Playoff Magic and Tragic Numbers for All Teams With 5 Days Left

St. Louis Cardinals

Elimination Tragic Number: 1

The St. Louis Cardinals have the lowest playoff probability on our list. Despite another big win, which eliminated the San Francisco Giants last night, the Cards sit 3.5 games back of the final wild card spot with four games to play and are on the wrong end of a bunch of tiebreakers. This bird is cooked.

Seattle Mariners

1st Round Bye Magic Number: 2

AL West Magic Number: 1

The Seattle Mariners have really stepped into controlling their own fate. Winners of five straight and nine of their past 10, including a road sweep of the Houston Astros, have earned them a postseason berth. With the lowly Colorado Rockies coming to town, the M's took care of business last night, and coupled with a New York Yankees win, they are officially a playoff team. Another win gets them the division and is likely heading toward a first-round bye, with a three-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers. 

Cleveland Guardians

AL Central Magic Number: 5

Playoff Spot Magic Number: 4

The Cleveland Guardians have been one of the hottest teams in baseball the past few weeks. Coming into the final week, winners of nine of its past 10, Cleveland has grabbed postseason position and a real shot at the division crown. With a tiebreaker over the Houston Astros, Cleveland can win out and lock down a playoff spot. At the same time, any combo of Guardians victories and 'Stros defeats means the kings of the Cuyahoga are playing October baseball.

They also opened their three-game set with the Detroit Tigers with a huge win and are now holding the division lead and notching the tiebreaker over Detroit. A sweep in this series and the Tigers' division hopes are all but dashed.

New York Yankees

Playoff Spot Magic Number: 0

Sitting in the top wild card spot, the New York Yankees officially clinched their playoff spot last night, after beating the Chicago White Sox. The Bronx Bombers also stepped closer to their shot at the AL East crown, pulling to a game back of the AL-leading Toronto Blue Jays, after they lost to the Boston Red Sox. If New York can pull off the East, it's looking like a first-round bye will come with it.

Boston Red Sox

Playoff Spot Magic Number: 3

While their AL East division winner dreams may be far-fetched, the Boston Red Sox took the series opener with the Toronto Blue Jays last night. Boston now pulls to four games back, and would need a sweep to have a chance at winning the East. Their route to a playoff spot is more likely, currently holding onto the second wild card berth with two games on the Houston Astros and one on the Detroit Tigers. Boston also holds the tiebreaker over the 'Stros and the Cleveland Guardians, should the Guardians drop back into wild card territory.

Detroit Tigers

AL Central Magic Number: 6

Playoff Spot Magic Number: 4

The Detroit Tigers continue to tumble, dropping their seventh straight with a 5-2 loss to the team that's chased them down, the Cleveland Guardians. After sweeping Detroit last week, Cleveland continues to dominate, even beating Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal last night. Now the red-hot Guardians have the edge in the AL Central, despite having identical records, thanks to having the tiebreaker over Detroit. 

Detroit's saving grace may come down to the wild card, where they hold the tiebreaker over the Houston Astros, who are currently on the outside looking in, also on the wrong side of a tiebreaker with Cleveland.

Houston Astros

Elimination Tragic Number: 5

We've seen a lot of collapses among once mighty teams in playoff positions this season, and the Houston Astros are no different. They come into the final week of the season licking their wounds after getting humbled by a home sweep at the hands of the worst team they could have been swept by, the Seattle Mariners. Not only is the division lead now gone, but the AL West is almost out of reach, with the M's holding a four-game lead. To make matters worse, Houston now finds itself on the outside looking in for a playoff spot. They are one game back of the Detroit Tigers and AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians, with both teams holding tiebreakers over them.

Houston, we have a problem, a big, big problem.

Philadelphia Phillies

1st Round Bye Magic Number: 1

The Philadelphia Phillies are still gunning for their first World Series title with this iteration, after losing to the Houston Astros in 2022  They already took a giant step towards that chance by wrapping up the NL East and clinching a playoff spot  Their regular season work isn't done quite yet, as a first-round bye is in the balance  Philly has the tiebreaker over the Los Angeles Dodgers and gained a game after LA's loss last night, even though the Phillies dropped their extra innings affair with the Miami Marlins. So, one more Dodgers loss or a Philadelphia win, and they wrap up the bye.

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Los Angeles Dodgers

NL West Magic Number: 3

The defending World Series champions have guaranteed themselves a playoff spot, as the Los Angeles Dodgers will look to run it back once again. While in the driver's seat in the NL West, the San Diego Padres are still hanging around. LA's lead in the division is down to 1.5 games after the Dodgers dropped a 5-4 decision to the Arizona Diamondbacks, and San Diego motored the Milwaukee Brewers 7-0 last night. The Dodgers do own the tiebreaker with the Friars, so their magic number to clinch the West remains at three. 

Chicago Cubs

Home Wild Card Team Magic Number: 4

At 88-69 on the year, the Chicago Cubs have already clinched a playoff spot. While they have no shot at the division with the Milwaukee Brewers already taking the NL Central title, they are in good shape to be the top wild-card team and host their opening-round series. The Cubbies are 1.5 games up on the San Diego Padres to be the top wild card team, although they did drop their series opener with the New York Mets last night. Thanks to the loss and New York's win, Chicago's magic number remains at four.

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San Diego Padres

Playoff Spot Magic Number: 0

The San Diego Padres punched their playoff ticket with a 5-4 extra-innings win over the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday. They still have a shot at the division and to host in the first round. San Diego has pulled to 1.5 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, thanks to their victory last night, but does not hold the tiebreaker. The Friars are also 1.5 games behind the Chicago Cubs for the top wild-card spot, and depending on who ends up with the better division record, they could still gain that tiebreaker with Chicago.    

New York Mets

Playoff Spot Magic Number: 5

How did the New York Mets get here? Once rolling atop the NL East this summer, a terrible second half has them fighting for their playoff lives. Well, they threw the opening jab last night by taking care of business with a win over the Chicago Cubs. Coupled with a Cincinnati Reds loss, the Mets went from tragic to magic in a matter of hours and now hold the final wild card spot in the NL.

The Reds do hold the tiebreaker, so New York's work is still far from done.  

Cincinnati Reds

Elimination Tragic Number: 5

Once thought to be dead and buried, the Cincinnati Reds are very much alive in the NL wild card race. Cincinnati has clawed its way and briefly held the final berth over the New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks. As quickly as it came, it went, as the Reds dropped their series opener to the Pittsburgh Pirates and both the Mets and D-backs won. Now, Cincy is on the outside looking in and knotted with Arizona.

Since the Reds won the regular season series with New York, they hold the tiebreaker edge. 

Arizona Diamondbacks

Elimination Tragic Number: 5

Another team, which was thought to have no shot at the playoffs a month and a half ago, was the Arizona Diamondbacks. Hell, they didn't even believe they had a shot with a massive fire sale at the trade deadline. Well, here we are seven weeks later, and the D-backs sit just one game back of the New York Mets for the final NL wild card spot. 'Zona split its season series with the Mets, but will have the second tiebreaker. However, the Cincinnati Reds, who are tied with Arizona, one game out, have the tiebreaker over the D-backs. 

Miami Marlins

Elimination Tragic Number: 2

Out of the ashes come the Miami Marlins. Miami won its seventh straight last night and 11th in 12 games, disposing of the Philadelphia Phillies in extra innings. They have a very outside shot of making it in with four teams ahead of them and four games back. That said, the Marlins do play the New York Mets in their final series of the season and have the tiebreaker over them but its likely its decided before then.

St. Louis Cardinals

Elimination Tragic Number: 1

The St. Louis Cardinals have the lowest playoff probability on our list. Despite another big win, which eliminated the San Francisco Giants last night, the Cards sit 3.5 games back of the final wild card spot with four games to play and are on the wrong end of a bunch of tiebreakers. This bird is cooked.