Contenders to Pretenders? 5 MLB Teams That Will Regress in 2024
Grant White
Host · Writer
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
Things couldn't have gone better for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2023. Loaded with young talent, the D-Backs were expected to develop and compete. Instead, they ran things all the way to the World Series, capturing their first NL Pennant since 2001. After last year, anything short of the World Series would be considered a disappointment. But we're expecting the Diamondbacks to take a few steps further back this season.
Arizona captured lightning in a bottle last year. Their .730 OPS put them 17th in the majors, and their 746 runs put them just on the other side of average. Similarly, they had below-average pitching throughout most of the season, finishing with the 20th-ranked 4.48 ERA.
Rather than framing it as a setback in 2024, the more positive outlook is that the Diamondbacks overachieved last year. But any way you spin it, they won't recapture that glory this season. The Diamondbacks are +4000 to win the World Series.
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5. Milwaukee Brewers
Over the past few years, the Milwaukee Brewers have become synonymous with pitching. Collectively, the Brew Crew led the majors in ERA, compensating for their offensive shortcomings. But with a few changes to their starting rotation and a still underwhelming lineup, Milwaukee might not maintain the standard they've become known for.
Freddy Peralta remains the staff ace, but there are concerns in the rotation. Corbin Burnes was dealt to the Baltimore Orioles, and Wade Miley is dealing with a lingering hip issue. That means Jakob Junis, Colin Rea, and DL Hall will be expected to make more significant contributions than they may be able to offer.
Last year, the Brewers offense finished in the league's bottom half in runs and OPS. It's tough to envision a scenario where they improve on those metrics with their current roster composition.
NL Central teams around them have gotten better, and the Brewers have seemingly gotten worse. As such, we have them earmarked for regression in 2024. Look no further than the Brewers' +8500 World Series odds to validate that position.
4. Chicago White Sox
Three years ago, the Chicago White Sox emerged as the top team in the AL Central, setting the stage for what was expected to be several years of improved play. The White Sox followed that up with an 81-81 record in 2022 and a 61-101 record last year. Getting to 61 wins would be the high mark of what to expect from them.
Over the past few seasons, most of the White Sox's top players have moved on from the organization. Former MVP Jose Abreu, Batting Title-winner Tim Anderson, Gold Glove pitcher Dallas Keuchel, and former Reliever of the Year Liam Hendriks are just a few of the names to jettison the Windy City. Worse, they've been replaced by journeyman players and reclamation projects as the Southsiders try to compete in one of the worst divisions in baseball.
The White Sox enter the season with dismal +25000 odds to win the World Series. Sadly, that's still overestimating their chances. This will be a long season for the few remaining White Sox fans.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays have become the model of regular season consistency; however, even they won't be able to overcome some of the offseason moves they made and compete in the ultra-tough AL East.
The Rays were one of the top-hitting teams in 2023. They ranked fourth in runs and OPS, largely thanks to their 230 home runs and six players with at least 20 long fly balls. That efficiency was matched on the mound, as the Rays' staff finished with the fifth-best ERA on the mound.
As is typically the case, the Rays offloaded some of their most established pieces this offseason for building blocks and future assets. As a result, we're not expecting them to match last year's energy or win total. Regression is on the horizon for the Rays, and that's reflected in their +3000 World Series price.
2. San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants enter the upcoming campaign amid an identity crisis. The team failed to land any big-name targets in free agency, leaving gaps in their lineup and starting rotation. New Manager Bob Melvin is being asked to construct a team without a full complement of MLB-ready players. Consequently, the Giants are poised for regression in 2024.
Their 2023 metrics also support that San Francisco could do an about-face this season. The Giants have the fifth-worst OPS in the majors and the run to production to boot. Their 674 runs scored put them marginally ahead of that, coming in at the seventh-fewest in the MLB. Moreover, it's tough to rationalize how their team ERA of 4.02 was enough to offset those deficits and help them to 78 wins.
It's tough to envision a scenario where the Giants don't regress in 2024. They don't have the personnel to overcome their deficiencies, and even if they did manage to land one of the top remaining free agents, it's unlikely that would propel them to a winning record. The Giants are +6000 to win the World Series.
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
Things couldn't have gone better for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2023. Loaded with young talent, the D-Backs were expected to develop and compete. Instead, they ran things all the way to the World Series, capturing their first NL Pennant since 2001. After last year, anything short of the World Series would be considered a disappointment. But we're expecting the Diamondbacks to take a few steps further back this season.
Arizona captured lightning in a bottle last year. Their .730 OPS put them 17th in the majors, and their 746 runs put them just on the other side of average. Similarly, they had below-average pitching throughout most of the season, finishing with the 20th-ranked 4.48 ERA.
Rather than framing it as a setback in 2024, the more positive outlook is that the Diamondbacks overachieved last year. But any way you spin it, they won't recapture that glory this season. The Diamondbacks are +4000 to win the World Series.
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
5. Milwaukee Brewers
Over the past few years, the Milwaukee Brewers have become synonymous with pitching. Collectively, the Brew Crew led the majors in ERA, compensating for their offensive shortcomings. But with a few changes to their starting rotation and a still underwhelming lineup, Milwaukee might not maintain the standard they've become known for.
Freddy Peralta remains the staff ace, but there are concerns in the rotation. Corbin Burnes was dealt to the Baltimore Orioles, and Wade Miley is dealing with a lingering hip issue. That means Jakob Junis, Colin Rea, and DL Hall will be expected to make more significant contributions than they may be able to offer.
Last year, the Brewers offense finished in the league's bottom half in runs and OPS. It's tough to envision a scenario where they improve on those metrics with their current roster composition.
NL Central teams around them have gotten better, and the Brewers have seemingly gotten worse. As such, we have them earmarked for regression in 2024. Look no further than the Brewers' +8500 World Series odds to validate that position.
