MLB · 1 year ago

Ranking the Top 10 Players Available in MLB Free Agency

Grant White

Host · Writer

1. Blake Snell
The marquee free agent left unsigned two weeks into Spring Training is two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell. The southpaw was a driving force on the San Diego Padres last season, but his elite performances are tempered by periods of ineffectiveness.

In his two Cy Young-winning seasons of 2018 and 2023, Snell put together ERAs of 1.89 and 2.25, with 217 and 189 strikeouts, respectively. Between those campaigns, his ERA jumped to 3.85 with a 1.26 WHIP and a slightly above-average 104 ERA+.

As tempting as it is to pay Snell for his ceiling, teams are aware that he'll fall somewhere below those lofty benchmarks in 2024. For Snell's sake, we hope he realizes that soon, too.
10. Eddie Rosario
After spending the last two-plus seasons with the Atlanta Braves, Eddie Rosario is searching for a new landing spot this offseason. The left fielder was an integral part of the Braves Championship run, but injuries and consistency have prevented Rosario from latching on with a new squad.

Rosario had a standout 2023 campaign. The Puerto Rican put up 74 RBIs thanks in part to his 21 home runs, both of which were his highest marks since 2019. Still, Rosario played only 248 games between those seasons, including the COVID-disrupted 2020 season.

The problem for Rosario is that he's been a slightly above-average player for most of his career. Since 2016, his WAR has climbed above 1.6 just once, dipping as low as -1.6 in 2022. Unless the former Brave is willing to take a pay cut from the $9 million he was paid last year, he could be left waiting for injuries before a team comes knocking.
9. Ryne Stanek
Showing some love to the top bullpen arm left in the free agent market. Former Houston Astros reliever Ryne Stanek is still unsigned weeks ahead of Opening Day. Nevertheless, Stanek should find a new home before the end of Spring Training.

Few pitchers can throw with the resolve that Stanek does. The 32-year-old averages 98.2 mph with his heater, putting him among the top 4% of pitchers in the bigs. However, he's not just a one-trick pony. Stanek also mixes in a nasty splitter and slider.

The knock on Stanek is that he gives up a lot of hard contact, the unintended consequence of throwing heat. But with a whiff percentage that puts him in the 82nd percentile, he still projects as a quality bullpen arm.
8. Brandon Belt
Age has done nothing to slow Brandon Belt down. The two-time World Series Champ continued to flash his power with the Toronto Blues Jays in 2023, but remains unsigned through the first few weeks of Spring Training. Never a standout on defense, Belt still has plenty to offer at the dish.

Most of Belt's appearances last year came in the DH role, making some of his metrics stand out even more. In 2023, the former Giant put together a 2.0 WAR despite hitting -0.9 on defense. Predictably, that correlates with elite offensive production, with the 36-year-old accumulating his best OPS since 2020.

Of course, age will scare some teams off, but Belt's underlying metrics support that his offensive production is sustainable. He ranked in the 91st percentile or better in sweet spot contact, barrel rate, and walk percentage. In today's modern age of baseball, that still counts for a lot.
7. Tommy Pham
Journeyman outfielder Tommy Pham is searching the wanted ads ahead of the regular season. Unfortunately, his disruptive locker room presence could keep teams from reaching out.

Pham remains a productive outfielder into his mid-30s. The soon-to-be 36-year-old is coming off a 68-RBI campaign, complemented by 55 runs, 16 homers, and 22 stolen bags. Further, Pham has been an above-average defender for most of his career, albeit in the easily-filled left-field spot.

If Pham remains unsigned before the regular season, it's most likely a result of his off-the-field antics. It's no coincidence that he's played on four teams over the past two years.
6. Donovan Solano
Donovan Solano is a few years removed from his Silver Slugger season, but his underlying metrics support that he's still got some pop left in his bat. Like Belt, Solano's best fit is a team willing to use him primarily in the DH spot.

Most of Solano's analytics put him on the elite end of the spectrum. Take note of his .284 expected batting average and .351 expected weighted on-base average, but Solano's 43.1% sweet spot rating sets him apart from the rest. Those have contributed to an OPS+ above 100 in four of the previous five seasons.

Solano's metrics make him a reliable offensive presence in nearly any part of the lineup. Teams must look past his defensive inefficiencies and accept that he's aging into a strictly DH role.
5. Michael Taylor
Apparently, 2024 isn't the year for centerfielders. It took months for the pre-eminent free agent Cody Bellinger to land a contract, so what chances does Michael Taylor have?

Taylor has been an above-average player for the past few seasons. Over the past three years, Taylor has accumulated a 7.7 WAR while rating as one of the top defenders in the MLB. But he's still managed to be productive at the plate. Taylor is coming off a career-best 21 homers last season, adding 51 RBIs, 48 runs, and 13 stolen bases.

It's evident that teams aren't prioritizing the defense-first mentality that Taylor offers. But it won't take long for big league clubs to recognize their shortcomings in the regular season, and that may be when Taylor's phone starts to ring.
4. J.D. Martinez
The veteran slugger and six-time All-Star, J.D. Martinez, is still waiting for an appropriate offer. However, it's becoming painfully obvious that teams aren't willing to spend what Martinez thinks he's worth.

The free-swinging righty has plenty of pop left in his bat. Martinez had one of the best analytics profiles in the bigs last season, illustrated by his 93rd-percentile ranking in Batting Run Value. But his 17.1% barrel rate, 55.1% hard-hit percentage, and 93.4 mph average exit velocity all put him in the 98th percentile.

If you've priced yourself outside what the Los Angeles Dodgers can offer, you know you're coming in too high. Obviously, the Dodgers went in a different direction at DH, but Martinez will have to adjust his expectations if he wants to extend his MLB career.
3. Trevor Bauer
Count us as one of the few people rooting for a Trevor Bauer comeback. Bauer spent last year pitching in the Nippon League, but he's flashing all the nasty stuff to any team willing to listen. If nothing else, he's freely auditioning on social media, posting his workouts for the world to see.

Granted, it's been almost three years since Bauer last pitched in the majors, but it looks like the former Cy Young winner still has lots left in the tank. The 33-year-old is approaching 94 mph with his four-seamer, but his two-seamer, slider, and change look just as devastating.

With the alleged assault case behind him, Bauer has set his sights on a return to the MLB. There are still plenty of teams that would benefit from having him join their rotation.
2. Jordan Montgomery
One of the remaining Scott Boras clients without a contract, Jordan Montgomery, is waiting for the best deal. But like many members of the Boras brood before him, he might have to sacrifice term and salary for flexibility and options.

Not many southpaws can match what Montgomery has to offer. The former fourth-round pick has a five-pitch offering, primarily relying on his sinker to get ahead in the count. But with a changeup, curve, cutter, and four-seamer, many batters are left guessing at the plate.

Analytically, Montgomery rates as a top talent. Surely, that's what Boras points to in his negotiations. However, a career 1.21 WHIP and 3.75 FIP are stats that execs are likely raising as a concern in not offering Montgomery what he thinks he's worth.
1. Blake Snell
The marquee free agent left unsigned two weeks into Spring Training is two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell. The southpaw was a driving force on the San Diego Padres last season, but his elite performances are tempered by periods of ineffectiveness.

In his two Cy Young-winning seasons of 2018 and 2023, Snell put together ERAs of 1.89 and 2.25, with 217 and 189 strikeouts, respectively. Between those campaigns, his ERA jumped to 3.85 with a 1.26 WHIP and a slightly above-average 104 ERA+.

As tempting as it is to pay Snell for his ceiling, teams are aware that he'll fall somewhere below those lofty benchmarks in 2024. For Snell's sake, we hope he realizes that soon, too.
10. Eddie Rosario
After spending the last two-plus seasons with the Atlanta Braves, Eddie Rosario is searching for a new landing spot this offseason. The left fielder was an integral part of the Braves Championship run, but injuries and consistency have prevented Rosario from latching on with a new squad.

Rosario had a standout 2023 campaign. The Puerto Rican put up 74 RBIs thanks in part to his 21 home runs, both of which were his highest marks since 2019. Still, Rosario played only 248 games between those seasons, including the COVID-disrupted 2020 season.

The problem for Rosario is that he's been a slightly above-average player for most of his career. Since 2016, his WAR has climbed above 1.6 just once, dipping as low as -1.6 in 2022. Unless the former Brave is willing to take a pay cut from the $9 million he was paid last year, he could be left waiting for injuries before a team comes knocking.

Ranking the Top 10 Players Available in MLB Free Agency

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