Is it Too Early in the Season to Give Up on the Blue Jays?
Grant White
Host · Writer
This MLB season is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory. No one is running away with anything yet, and even the teams expected to steamroll the competition have looked beatable (ahem, New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers). That leaves all but two NL and three AL teams with a conceivable shot of making the postseason, amplifying the stakes in the campaign’s latter half.
While some teams in the hunt may decide to be sellers at the deadline, it’s too early to give up on this year’s edition of the Toronto Blue Jays.
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Usual Struggles
This year’s issues are analogous to the team’s recent history. Over the past few seasons, the Jays have inched closer to reaching their full potential, but things never seem to come together for the AL East contenders. Starting pitching has been a limiting factor, while Toronto’s bats have been inconsistent.
Nevertheless, things seem to be coming together for the playoff-hopeful Blue Jays.
Improving Offense
Fresh off their series win over the AL West-leading Seattle Mariners, and winners of six of their last 11, the Jays have put their seven-game losing streak in the rearview mirror. Their offense has accounted for some improvements, boosting their OPS to .739 over the past two weeks, above their season-long average of .684.
Predictably, improved production correlates with increased output, with Toronto’s runs per game jumping to 4.9 over their recent stretch. That trajectory should continue as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and George Springer continue their recent onslaught and work their way back up to career norms.
Pitching Considerations
Thankfully, their offense has offset some of their pitching woes, but Toronto’s staff has turned a corner with its most recent efforts.
Collectively, Jays starters have dropped their ERA below their season-long average over the past week. That downward trajectory could be foreshadowing what comes next for the rotation. Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi have looked sharp of late and can carry that momentum into the All-Star Break.
Buyers Not Sellers
It would break his usual mold, but Ross Atkins can shift course ahead of the MLB Trade Deadline. Many expect the Jays to be sellers at the end of the month; however, upgrading their starting rotation and securing a left-handed power bat could be the difference between making the playoffs this year and tearing everything down and starting fresh.
Trade Partners
Coincidentally, there is no shortage of potential trade partners awaiting a call from the Blue Jays. The Chicago White Sox have been dangling Garrett Crochet in trade talks, while the Chicago Cubs are entertaining offers on Cody Bellinger. Adding one or both is the shake-up the Jays desperately need.
Betting Entry Points
It’s seemingly impossible for the Toronto Blue Jays to catch the Baltimore Orioles atop the AL East, and that’s reflected in their betting price. The Jays are priced as lengthy +50000 longshots to reign supreme in their division.
Still, there’s an equally tempting proposition to be had in the “To Make The Playoffs" market. Just 8.5 games back in the wild-card race, Toronto is being dangled as attractive +1700 long shots to make the playoffs.
Betting them to win the division would be equivalent to lighting your money on fire. But imagining the Blue Jays making the playoffs is a much more realistic pursuit.
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Final Thoughts
The next few weeks will be a telling time for the Jays. If they can sustain their current offensive pace and continue to extract maximum value from their starting rotation, we should see Toronto close ground in the wild card race. Moreover, that should precipitate a different approach at the MLB trade deadline.
If all goes well for the Blue Jays, making the playoffs might be the low end of their expectations. Instead, we might discuss their chances of winning it all in October.
It’s a long proposition to some, but just ask the Arizona Diamondbacks if they think it could be done.
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