Is Kyle Tucker Baseball’s Most Underrated Player?

What Can Tucker Do to Gain More Appreciation?

Tucker’s underappreciation is one of the bigger mysteries in baseball.

He’s constantly surrounded by recognizable household names on the leaderboards. And he’s had the benefit of playing under the primetime lights for one of the greatest teams of this generation.

Having stars like Altuve, Alvarez, and Bregman, along with high-profile pitchers like Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez in the same clubhouse, has definitely cut into Tucker’s shine. But again, his numbers say he’s just as good if not better than these guys.

The Astros' dreadful start to 2024 certainly didn’t help his case for more notoriety, as many people have looked for what has gone wrong with the team instead of what aspects have worked, like Tucker.

But after play on Sunday, the Astros are 8-2 in their last ten games and continue to climb the American League standings, seemingly righting the ship. So if the turnaround continues, more eyes will be on the cause for the success, which could mean Tucker’s steady force at the dish in 2024 will get more recognition.

https://twitter.com/AstrosFuture/status/1791101634677731348

At a 3.0 fWAR through 46 games and 205 plate appearances, Tucker is on pace to crush his career-best totals.

Tucker can only control what he does on the field, not how he’s perceived by those watching. As the stats have proved, he’s done his part by posting elite-level numbers up to this point in his career.

So, with Tucker's torrid pace to start 2024, one surely has to think that more eyes will finally turn toward him, giving him his overdue time in the spotlight.

Only time will tell, though.

The post Is Kyle Tucker Baseball’s Most Underrated Player? appeared first on Just Baseball.

Tucker is an Elite Hitter…And Gets Little Recognition For It

Kyle Tucker is having a dominant season at the plate so far in 2024.

Among qualified hitters league-wide this season, Tucker’s 186 wRC+ ranks 2nd, only behind Ohtani.

His 1.039 OPS is also second, along with his .623 SLG, and his .417 OBP ranks fourth.

His most noteworthy accomplishment so far in 2024 might just be that he leads the major leagues in homers with 15, alongside Baltimore Orioles young star shortstop Gunnar Henderson.

https://twitter.com/JustBB_Media/status/1792311427010634232?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Tucker’s elite status in the upper portions of major league leaderboards is not only isolated to 2024; he has been a force at the dish for years.

2022-2024

Tucker has been one of the major league’s best hitters from 2022 until now. The 2023 Silver Slugger Award winner has been proving he can hang with some of the league’s most decorated and marketable stars and finds himself ranked ahead of some of them in numerous categories.

Tucker has mingled with the league’s heaviest hitters in this timespan by displaying great power and solid contact. He ranks ninth among all qualified hitters in SLG with .514, ahead of household names like 2x MVP Bryce Harper (12th), 2x World Series MVP Corey Seager (tenth), reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. (17th), 4x Silver Slugger Juan Soto (16th), and 2022 NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt (21st), among others.

https://twitter.com/JustBB_Media/status/1694144292426539070

But Tucker is much more than simply a hard-hitting player. He has demonstrated a top-notch all-around approach at the plate.

Tucker ranked ninth in wRC+ from 2022-2024, posting a 143, which once again places him ahead of players such as Harper (T10th), Acuna Jr. (T10th), Seager (18th), Julio Rodriguez (24th), and Manny Machado (26th).

He also ranks eighth in Fangraphs' offensive rating since the start of 2022, boasting an 81.2, again bettering decorated stars like Goldschmidt (tenth), Harper (15th), and Rodriguez (17th).

And maybe the most impressive stat for Tucker is that he’s been one of the most valuable players in the league since Opening Day 2022 according to fWAR, accumulating a sixth-best total of 12.8, which is better than Soto (8th), Rodriguez (12th), and maybe most noticeably his current teammate Altuve (8th).

Tucker is ranked as one of the league’s best hitters and arguably the best Houston Astro.

Among his star teammates, from 2022-2024, Tucker holds his own, sitting first in fWAR ahead of Altuve by 0.3, Alvarez by 1.6, and Bregman by 2.2.

Altuve and Alvarez have had remarkable seasons in this time frame, especially in 2022, where they finished fifth and third, respectively, in AL MVP voting.

But the interesting storyline here is Tucker’s comparison to Bregman, the seemingly third star in the Astros' supposed trio.

In every significant statistical category from 2022-2024, Tucker ranks ahead of Bregman, breaking the “big three” narrative built during this dynasty.

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	wRC+	fWAR
Kyle Tucker	.273	.360	.514	.874	74	252	143	12.8
Alex Bregman	.256	.356	.435	.791	52	210	125	10.6

Not to mention, Tucker’s fifth-place finish in AL MVP voting makes Bregman the odd man out between him, Tucker, Altuve, and Alvarez in the top five MVP finishes in the last two voting cycles.

And yet, looking at this year specifically, the focus has seemingly been more on Bregman’s struggles at the plate, with a .225/.293/.355 slash line, or whether or not he could be a trade chip at the deadline and less on Tucker's MVP-caliber pace.

2021 Season

The 2021 season might have been the year that Tucker received the ultimate disrespect of his career, his finish in the 2021 AL MVP voting.

Tucker came into his own in 2021 and broke onto the scene, posting a career-best 5.0 fWAR. This was good for a tie for 18th in the league that year, with Shohei Ohtani and Matt Olson finishing ahead of notable names like Paul Goldschmidt, Manny Machado, Freddie Freeman, and Nolan Arenado.

Being tied in offensive fWAR with Ohtani doesn’t mean a lot, considering that Ohtani is contributing at an elite level at the plate and on the mound. However, the comparison between fellow 5.0 fWAR member Olson that season is interesting.

While Olson can be argued to be the more powerful hitter that year between him and Tucker, having hit nine more home runs, Tucker had Olson beat in the slugging department, having posted a SLG% 17 points higher.

Olson could also have been considered to have a more patient approach than Tucker in 2021, posting an OBP 11 points higher than him and a walk rate 3.8 percent higher than the Astros outfielder.

But Tucker made up for that with a higher batting average, OPS, BABIP, and a lower strikeout rate.

The bottom line is that both had their strengths, but an identical 5.0 fWAR shows that the AL MVP voting should have been close.

This was not the case.

Olson finished eighth in voting, while Tucker finished with a single vote, which tied him for 20th.

	MVP Place (Voting PTS)	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP	K%	BB%	fWAR
Kyle Tucker	T20 (1.0)	30	92	.294	.359	.557	.916	.304	15.9%	9.3%	5.0
Matt Olson	8 (90.0)	39	111	.271	.371	.540	.911	.269	16.8%	13.1%	5.0

Including Olson and excluding Ohtani, Tucker would find himself finishing below eight other hitters who finished with an fWAR equal to or lower than him, including Salvador Perez, Rafael Devers, Jose Abreu, Bo Bichette, and Xander Bogaerts.

What displays this underappreciation even further is who he was tied for 20th with and who also only received a single vote of consideration for MVP. These names were Mitch Haniger, Austin Meadows, and Mike Zunino, all of whom Tucker was an objectively better hitter than.

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	fWAR
Kyle Tucker	.294	.359	.557	.917	5.0
Mitch Haniger	.253	.318	.485	.803	2.2
Austin Meadows	.234	.315	.458	.773	1.5
Mike Zunino	.216	.301	.559	.860	4.1

Tucker is More Than Just an Elite Hitter

Tucker might be one of the most well-rounded players in the game today. While his hitting certainly contributes to his strong fWAR totals, his speed on the basepaths is another key factor.

In 2023, Tucker narrowly missed an impressive feat of power and speed: the 30-30 season. He was a single home run shy of the accomplishment, having hit 29 homers and 30 stolen bases. The only players to accomplish this last season were Ronald Acuna Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt Jr., and Francisco Lindor.

From 2022 to 2024, Tucker showcased his plus speed, posting the sixth-highest stolen base totals in the league with 62.

He also uses that speed and agility in the outfield, having won a Gold Glove in 2022.

Since the start of 2022, Tucker has accumulated 18 defensive runs saved, good for a tie for seventh in the league among outfielders and a tie for 16th among any position player.

And with 20 assists, the ninth-best total among major league outfielders, he has established himself as a legitimate five-tool player.

Tucker is simply one of the most “tooled-out” players in the game today.

Tucker Desperately Needs a Raise

At just 27 years of age, Tucker is in his second-to-last year of arbitration before he becomes an unrestricted free agent following the 2025 season.

He only makes $12 million this year after settling with Houston this past offseason to avoid arbitration. Last season, he only made $5 million after losing his arbitration hearing.

For context and to reintroduce the comparison between the two, Bregman gets paid $30.5 million by the Astros this season. As mentioned earlier, Tucker has been the superior hitter to Bregman in nearly every category but is still going through the year-to-year arbitration process.

Altuve is getting paid $31.5 million this season, and a brand new five-year $125 million extension is set to kick in 2025. Remember, since the beginning of 2022, Tucker has ranked 0.3 fWAR ahead of Altuve.

While Alvarez is only getting paid roughly $10.83 million this year, he’s currently in the second season of a six-year $115 million contract that escalates every year until he will eventually be paid around $28.83 million each year from 2026 through 2028. Again, Tucker ranks 1.6 fWAR ahead of Alvarez since the start of 2022.

With Bregman becoming a UFA at the end of 2024, the Astros should hopefully have an opportunity to allocate payroll toward an extension for Tucker.

But seeing so many massive contracts for young talents, like Julio Rodriguez's 11-year $209.3 million deal with Seattle or Bobby Witt Jr.'s 11-year $288.77 million contract with Kansas City, one wonders why the Astros haven’t ponied up for one of the league’s most proven players.

What Can Tucker Do to Gain More Appreciation?

Tucker’s underappreciation is one of the bigger mysteries in baseball.

He’s constantly surrounded by recognizable household names on the leaderboards. And he’s had the benefit of playing under the primetime lights for one of the greatest teams of this generation.

Having stars like Altuve, Alvarez, and Bregman, along with high-profile pitchers like Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez in the same clubhouse, has definitely cut into Tucker’s shine. But again, his numbers say he’s just as good if not better than these guys.

The Astros' dreadful start to 2024 certainly didn’t help his case for more notoriety, as many people have looked for what has gone wrong with the team instead of what aspects have worked, like Tucker.

But after play on Sunday, the Astros are 8-2 in their last ten games and continue to climb the American League standings, seemingly righting the ship. So if the turnaround continues, more eyes will be on the cause for the success, which could mean Tucker’s steady force at the dish in 2024 will get more recognition.

https://twitter.com/AstrosFuture/status/1791101634677731348

At a 3.0 fWAR through 46 games and 205 plate appearances, Tucker is on pace to crush his career-best totals.

Tucker can only control what he does on the field, not how he’s perceived by those watching. As the stats have proved, he’s done his part by posting elite-level numbers up to this point in his career.

So, with Tucker's torrid pace to start 2024, one surely has to think that more eyes will finally turn toward him, giving him his overdue time in the spotlight.

Only time will tell, though.

The post Is Kyle Tucker Baseball’s Most Underrated Player? appeared first on Just Baseball.