Will Paul Goldschmidt of the New York Yankees Finish Top Seven in Fantasy Baseball Among 1B?
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
The Resurgence: Vintage Goldy in Pinstripes
Paul Goldschmidt’s 2025 campaign with the New York Yankees has been one of the more compelling late-career resurgences in recent fantasy memory. After a lukewarm 2024 finale in St. Louis, many expected Goldy to settle into a support role. Instead, he’s channeled his Arizona prime, surging to 4th in 5×5 roto scoring among first basemen as of early June.
He’s shown elite plate discipline, sharp contact rates, and vintage bat speed—benefitting mightily from Yankee Stadium’s short porch. But with the season just crossing the third mark, the question looms: can he maintain top-7 status rest of season?
⚾️ Projected Production: Fading or Foundational?
Let’s break down the realistic projection for Goldschmidt the rest of the way:
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Batting Average: His current clip (.340+) is likely unsustainable. Look for regression to the .285–.300 range.
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Home Runs: 20–22 homers feels fair given the pace, even if his current launch angle metrics suggest a dropoff.
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RBI/Run Production: With Aaron Judge, Anthony Volpe, and Clay Bellinger setting the table, Goldy should keep driving in runs, potentially eclipsing 85 RBI.
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Stolen Bases: Negligible, which hurts in 5×5 formats.
He’s producing, but names like Pete Alonso (New York Mets), Bryce Harper (Philadelphia Phillies), Josh Naylor (Arizona Diamondbacks), Matt Olson (Atlanta Braves), and Freddie Freeman (Los Angeles Dodgers) are heating up too—and many offer higher ceilings in power or speed categories.
🧠 Betting Angle: Odds to Finish Top 7 at 1B
Assuming books offer player finish props (some sharper fantasy sites or DFS-based sportsbooks like PrizePicks occasionally model rank finishes), here’s a reasonable speculative line:
Paul Goldschmidt to finish Top 7 Fantasy 1B in 5×5 scoring:
❌ Odds: +150 (Implied Probability: 40%)
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Why we SELL:
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Age & Wear: He’s 37, and long seasons take a toll.
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Regression Red Flags: xSLG and barrel rates have dipped in the last 30 games.
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Competition: The first base position is unusually deep this year.
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Verdict: SELL. While we love the story, we’re projecting a top-10 finish—realistically 8th–10th range.
🧮 Fantasy Tier Rest of Season (ROS)
| Tier | Players | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elite (1–3) | Harper, Alonso, Olson | Locked into MVP-level production |
| High-End (4–7) | Freeman and Naylor | Better pace, more upside |
| Solid Starters (8–12) | Goldschmidt, Spencer Torkelson (Detroit Tigers), Bellinger | Safe floors but not league-winners |
🔚 Final Word
Goldschmidt’s renaissance is fun, but fantasy baseball is a game of projectable trust, not emotion. His hot start helped carry rosters early, but expecting vintage Goldy all year long is a leap.
Buy a top-10 finish, sell the top-7 dream.
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