NBA · 3 months ago

2025 NBA Finals: Pacers at Thunder Game 1 SGP | Prediction, Picks and Props

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

2025 NBA Finals: Pacers at Thunder Game 1 SGP | Prediction, Picks and Props

The 2025 NBA Finals tip off tonight at Paycom, where the red-hot Oklahoma City Thunder host the resilient Indiana Pacers in Game 1 at Paycom Center. The Thunder enter as decisive favorites, laying 9.5 points on the spread with a -430 moneyline, while the over/under sits at 230.5. Indiana, priced at +340 to win outright, hopes to ride its high-octane offense into the underdog role once again.

Backed by a dominant postseason and a 29-1 regular season record against the East, OKC will look to impose its pace early. Our SGP breaks down three value-packed legs as we look to cash on our fourth straight Thunder game in these playoffs.

Let’s hit it.

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Game Information & Where to Watch

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, OK)
Where to Watch: ABC
Where to Stream: Fubo, ABC.com, ESPN App
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Thunder -9.5 | Total: 230.5
Moneyline: Thunder -430 | Pacers +340

Leg 1: Thunder Alt Spread -5.5 (-192)

Well rested and on a roll throughout the playoffs, the Thunder come in with more than a week of recovery and gameplanning after dispatching the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games. Sure, the Pacers have had five days off, but they had a much harder time in their conference finals series against the New York Knicks.

OKC swept the season series against Indiana, covering in both contests, which included a 132-111 blowout at the end of March. The Thunder haven’t been quite as good in these playoffs, failing to meet the spread in six of their past ten and once in OKC’s past three games. On the other hand, Indiana has covered in six of its past eight, and three of its past four on the road. While the Thunder have had some landslide wins in these playoffs, their inconsistency against the spread, coupled with Indiana’s success, are reasons enough to go with the alternate line.

The Thunder will continue their dominance against the East after going 29-1 in the regular season. Indiana’s volume shooting from beyond the arc may keep them in it and erase gaps quickly, but in the end, I like OKC with a two-possession win.

IND vs OKC Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Leg 2: Tyrese Haliburton Under 26.5 Pts+Ast (-122)

Tyrese Haliburton has had an up-and-down playoffs, although he was convinced it was he and not teammate Pascal Siakam won ECF MVP. If you haven’t seen the video yet, do yourself and Google it for a quick laugh. If you need another chuckle, Haliburton’s regular-season numbers against the Thunder will do the trick. The Pacers’ one guard averaged just 11.0 PPG and 5.5 APG in two meetings with the NBA’s top regular-season team. Haliburton went well under this number in both meetings, putting up games of 18 points and three assists to go along with a stinker of four points on 2-6 shooting.

The Thunder are not a good matchup for Haliburton. OKC’s big guards can play physical on Tyrese, with regular season and WCF MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander paired with an NBA All-Defensive First Team member, Lu Dort. The Canadian pair is a big reason why the Thunder ranked first against opposing point guards per 48 minutes in defensive efficiency. OKC allowed 22.7 PPG (second) and 7.5 APG (sixth) per 48 minutes to point guards, to go along with a 43.3% field goal percentage (sixth).

The strength of the Thunder’s defense goes beyond slowing point guards. As a team, OKC held opponents to an NBA-best 34.2% shooting from deep, which can help neutralize one of Haliburton’s best weapon; the three ball.

Best Bets: Game 1 Guide | Series

Leg 3: Chet Holmgren Over 22.5 Pts+Reb (-122)

The NBA Finals is the perfect place to unleash Chet Holmgren. The former second overall pick matches up very nicely with the Pacers. Indiana struggled with power forwards all season, ranking 16th per 48 minutes in defensive efficiency, their worst mark against any position. The Pacers gave up 23.0 points per 48 minutes to PFs, ranking 20th in the NBA. The other half of leg three is on the glass, a place where the Pacers were even worse against power forwards and in general. Indiana ranked dead last, giving up 12.0 boards per 48 minutes to PFs, and 22nd overall, 45.0 RPG.

Holmgren did not face Indiana this season, but averaged 15 points and 10 boards in two meetings last season. The former Gonzaga standout went over our number in both meetings, which included a double-double of 15 points and 13 rebounds. In these playoffs, Holmgren is averaging 16.4 PPG and 8.6 RPG, an uptick from his 15.0 PPG and 8.0 RPG regular season numbers. The 23-year-old is coming off a solid WCF, where he averaged 18.0 PPG and had at least 20 points in three contests, facing a much better defense in Minnesota.

Against a poor rebounding team like the Pacers, a double-double seems very possible, and inside scoring opportunities should present themselves. Watch Chet shine on the biggest stage tonight.

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