NBA Best Bets: Top Basketball Betting Picks for Wednesday (Nov. 19)

Wednesday’s NBA slate gives us two strong angles built on matchup advantages and season-long trends. The world champion Oklahoma City Thunder continue to light up opponents, and with Sacramento bringing one of the league’s weakest defenses into Paycom Center, OKC is a strong play.

We’re also targeting the boards in Cleveland, where Alperen Sengun draws a favorable rebounding matchup against a Cavs team that struggles to limit production from opposing centers.

Between OKC’s offensive firepower and Sengun’s consistency on the glass, these two plays shape Wednesday’s best betting card.

Dunk on the sportsbooks tonight! Grab SportsGrid’s free NBA picks, NBA props, and NBA SGPs.

Oklahoma City Thunder Over 125.5 Points (-112) vs Sacramento Kings

The world champion Oklahoma City Thunder have shown no signs of slowing down from their NBA title run a year ago, and continue to be one of the most lethal offensive teams in the league. OKC has jumped out to a fantastic start to the 2025-26 campaign, leading the NBA with a 14-1 mark, while going 6-0 in its friendly confines.

While the Thunder are an excellent defensive team, they’ve really done it with sharpshooting and running-and-gunning offensive firepower. The NBA’s third-leading scorer, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.9 PPG), has led his squad as the fourth-highest scoring team in basketball, going off for 121.9 points per game. The Thunder have already gone over this total seven times this year, while missing it by a single free throw in a 125-124 season-opening, OT thriller against the Houston Rockets. 

The Thunder have been even more lethal at home, averaging 123.8 points per game on 48.3 percent shooting. Oklahoma City has scored at least 125 in four of its six home games, and you can bet that after playing six of its past eight on the road, it’ll be loving the vibe at Paycom Center. It will also help facing a porous defense like the Sacramento Kings.

The Kings have been one of the league’s worst stoppers all season, allowing the third-most points per game at 124.4. Opponents are shooting a league-high 51.0 percent against the Kings, with much of the damage being done down low. Sac-town is giving up the second-most paint points in basketball, allowing 55.4 per game. It’s just as bad away from home.

On the road, where the Kings are just 1-6 this season, they rank 25th, giving up 123.3 points per game. Teams are getting plenty of easy looks, as Sacramento is allowing an NBA-high 51.4 percent shooting rate away from Golden 1 Center. Coming into OKC without starting center Domantas Sabonis (knee/rest) and Keegan Murray, who is expected to make his season debut on Thursday after being out with a thumb injury, only makes the road tougher for the Kings.

I like the Thunder to come out firing, and even if this turns into a blowout, OKC’s garbage time guys can score against this horrid Sacramento defense.

SAC vs OKC Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Alperen Sengun Over 9.5 Rebounds (-136) at Cleveland Cavaliers

The Houston Rockets have been the best rebounding team in the league this season, and at the center of it all is Alperen Sengun. 

Houston leads all teams, pulling down 50.3 boards a night to go along with an NBA-best 16.4 offensive rebounds per game. The Rockets also allow a league-low 37.8 rebounds per game to opponents, so you know they are all over the glass on both sides of the court. It’s not surprising to see this team with a league-high Estimated Rebound Percentage of 57%, which suggests their expected marks could be even better. When you clean the glass to this level of spotlessness, it’s clear it’s a team creedo as much as it is about the makeup of the players on the floor.

Centering this big, boarding Rockets squad is the seven-footer out of Turkey who has become a better rebounder in each of his four seasons in the league. Now in campaign number five, Sengun is right at his rebounding number from last year, pulling down 10.3 per game. The talented big man has gone over this total in seven of his past eight games, with his lone miss, a nine-board performance against Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs a couple of weeks ago.

Tonight, Sengun gets a better rebounding matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Cleveland ranks 20th, allowing 45.1 rebounds per game, and is just slightly better at pulling down their own, sitting 18th with 43.9 boards a night. The Cavs also sit around the middle of the pack in Estimated Rebound Percentage (49.3%), Estimated Defensive Rebound Percentage (73.3%), and most importantly, Estimated Offensive Rebound Percentage (27.2%), which should give Sengun ample opportunities to take care of his own glass. Cleveland has also had its troubles with opposing centers this season. The Cavs have allowed the ninth-most rebounds to the No. 5 position, allowing 14.7 per game.

I expect Houston’s big man to continue feasting on the glass and to have an excellent showing on the boards against a mediocre rebounding team tonight.

HOU vs CLE Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Wednesday NBA Best Bets

• Thunder Over 125.5 Points (-112)
• Alperen Sengun Over 9.5 Rebounds -136

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.