NBA Best Bets: Top Basketball Betting Picks for Tuesday (Nov. 25)

Tuesday’s NBA board features two spots that jump off the page for very different reasons, but both offer clear matchup advantages worth targeting. One game presents a surging offense stepping into a dream matchup against a defense that hasn’t been able to slow anyone all season. The other features a superstar guard carrying an enormous workload and thriving in a matchup tailor-made for his strengths.

With both contests offering dependable trends, pace indicators, and exploitable weaknesses, the numbers point to substantial value on props and team-based markets.

Let’s dive into my two favorite bets on the board for tonight.

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Atlanta Hawks Over 123.5 (-114) Points at Washington Wizards

Another year, another season of horrible hoops for the Washington Wizards. As has become an annual storyline, the Wiz has been anything but magical in 2025, opening the campaign with an NBA-worst 1-15 mark, which includes a goose egg of 0-6 at home. It’s unlikely things will get any better as they host a very game Atlanta Hawks squad, which has done plenty of damage away from home.

Atlanta has gotten off to a better start than most expected, sitting at 11-7 in the East, holding the sixth playoff seed early on. The Hawks have been even better on the road, going 8-3 away from State Farm Arena. Georgia’s favorite NBA team has been able to do all of this without point guard and perennial leading scorer Trae Young, who has been limited to just five games thanks to a knee injury. Even without their floor general, Atlanta’s offense hasn’t really missed a beat.

The Hawks are putting up 117.3 points per game, while sporting the league’s seventh-best shooting rate at 47.9 percent. Atlanta has been efficient inside and out, ranking in the top ten in three-point shooting at 37.4 percent and in the top ten in points in the paint per game at 52.8. The Hawks are getting 45.4 percent of their points in the key, the fifth-highest rate in basketball this season. Their advanced metrics also sing a soulful song.

Atlanta ranks just outside the top ten with an estimated offensive rating of 114.0, an estimated net rating of 2.9, and an estimated pace of 103.00. This, coupled with the Hawks’ efficiency and the ability to score both inside and outside, means further progression could be on the way. This season, there’s no better team to progress against than the Wizards.

Saying Washington’s defense has been atrocious would not begin to do the word justice. The Wizards sit in the NBA’s basement, allowing 129.1 points per game, more than four points more than the next-closest team. They are allowing opponents a ton of points at the stripe, ranking 29th, giving up 23.1 successful free throws per game on over 29 attempts. This indicates a defense that is late and often out of position, being forced to foul. Washington’s opponents’ FG rate (48.0%) ranks 23rd, while their three-point rate (37.2%) ranks 24th. They give up the sixth-most triples (14.4 per game) and the second-most offensive rebounds (14.7 per game), which leads to 55.6 points in the paint, the second-most in the NBA. 

It’s clear Washington has trouble stopping anyone on the outside and down low, areas in which Atlanta has thrived this year. All signs point to a scorching offensive night for the Hawks.

ATL vs WSH Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

LAL Luka Doncic Over 40.5 Pts+Ast (-118) vs Los Angeles Clippers

It’s been a tale of two cities for the Los Angeles Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers in the early going of the 2025-26 campaign. The Clippers have been as bad as we’ve seen them in recent years, stumbling to a 5-12 mark, while the Lakers sit atop the Pacific with a 12-4 record. The purple and gold have gotten it done mostly without LeBron James, who has just recently returned and played only two games so far this season. During the King’s absence, LA has leaned heavily on Luka Doncic, and boy oh boy has he responded.

Luka leads the NBA in scoring, firing off for 34.5 points per game on a 46.7 FG rate. Always a volume shooter, Doncic is hitting 3.4 threes a night on a what can undoubtedly be improved 31.1 percent rate. He’s getting to the line more than any other player in the league, with 12.5 foul shot attempts per night. Gotta love free points! 

Not only is the former Dallas Maverick getting his own shot, but he is running the offense and getting teammates involved. Luka sits fourth, serving up 8.9 assists per game, and eighth with a 39.8 assist percentage. The beauty of Doncic is that even if his shot is struggling, he can serve up top-notch dimes to teammates to get the offense going.

Doncic has gone over this total in three straight games and in four of his past six. In those four games Luka hit the over, he’s averaged 37.3 points and 7.8 assists. He’s also put up double-digit assists in five of his past nine games. Mark my words, if Doncic hits 10 or more assists, this ticket cashes. With an NBA-high 36.4 usage rate, he will be on the floor plenty to cash in those opportunities.

While the Clippers have struggled mightily in general, they’ve really had a hard time containing guards. LA ranks 21st, allowing 25.4 points per game to the position and 26th, giving up 8.9 assists a night. The Clippers are also in the bottom half of the league, surrendering 3.1 triples per game to the position. It’s not only point guards they’ve had trouble with, as LA gives up the third-most points to shooting guards at 26.3 per game, while sitting 29th, allowing 4.3 threes a night to SGs. Overall, as a team, LA sits 19th, letting up 117.2 points and 22nd, conceding 27.1 assists per game. 

Being more of a combo guard, this is an excellent matchup for Doncic, so against a weak squad that struggles to defend backcourts in general, I like Luka to go off and carve up the Clippers tonight.

LAC vs LAL Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Tuesday NBA Best Bets

• Hawks Over 123.5 (-114)
• Luka Doncic Over 40.5 Pts+Ast (-118)

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.