NBA · 3 months ago

2025 NBA Finals: Thunder at Pacers Game 3 SGP | Prediction, Picks and Props

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

2025 NBA Finals: Thunder at Pacers Game 3 SGP | Prediction, Picks and Props

After a dominant Game 2 performance, the Oklahoma City Thunder look to maintain control of the NBA Finals in Game 3 behind their elite defense, turnover pressure, and matchup edge vs the Indiana Pacers.

Let’s get back on track after hitting three of my last four OKC same game parlays.

Roll on.

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Thunder vs Pacers Game Info & Where to Watch

Location: Gainbridge FieldHouse
Where to Watch: ABC
Where to Stream: Fubo, ABC.com, ESPN App
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Thunder -5 | Total: 228
Moneyline: Thunder -215 | Pacers +180

Leg 1: Thunder Moneyline (-215)

The Thunder’s Game 2 bounce-back was decisive in more ways than one. After blowing both a 15-point early fourth-quarter lead and a nine-point edge late in Game 1, Oklahoma City responded with a resounding statement, dominating the Pacers and restoring control of the series. That 123-107 win wasn’t just about the scoreboard—it marked a major defensive clampdown. Indiana, the NBA’s most efficient shooting team this postseason at 49.4%, was held to 45.4% from the field.

It’s been a season-long theme for OKC against the Pacers. They swept the regular-season series, including a 132-111 rout in late March, and covered the spread in both matchups. But while the Thunder have had Indiana’s number overall, their postseason ATS record has been far less convincing—just 5-5 against the spread in their last 10. Meanwhile, Indiana has cashed in seven of its past 10 games ATS, making the moneyline a smarter and safer play than counting on the Thunder to win by five or more for a push on the spread.

Turnovers could tilt the balance again in Game 3. The Thunder have made it a postseason trademark—forcing 17.3 turnovers per game, the most of any team in these playoffs. Indiana is averaging 12.8 giveaways per game, a number that looks better than it is, considering they opened the series with a 25-turnover disaster in Game 1. They cut that down to 15 in Game 2, but with OKC’s defensive pressure and transition pace, mistakes will likely pile up again.

The Thunder, by contrast, remain elite at taking care of the ball—just 10.8 turnovers per game this postseason, in line with their NBA-best regular season average of 11.0. Don’t expect the Pacers to capitalize again the way they did in Game 2, when they squeezed out 17 points off turnovers.

Also worth noting: Oklahoma City went an astounding 29-1 against Eastern Conference opponents in the regular season. Until proven otherwise, this remains a matchup that clearly favors the West’s youngest juggernaut.

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Leg 2: Tyrese Haliburton Under 17.5 Points (-122)

Tyrese Haliburton continues to face a difficult test against an Oklahoma City team built to disrupt his strengths. After holding Tyrese under 17 points in both games of the Finals and limiting him to 11.0 PPG in two regular-season meetings, OKC rightfully comes into Game 3 with confidence in slowing Haliburton.

The Thunder’s backcourt features elite size and physicality, anchored by two premier Canadian defenders: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the MVP of both the regular season and the Western Conference Finals, and Lu Dort, a member of the NBA All-Defensive First Team. Their relentless perimeter pressure is a key factor behind Oklahoma City’s dominance in guarding point guards this season. Per 48 minutes, the Thunder limited opposing floor generals to just 22.7 points (second-fewest) and held them to a 43.3% shooting clip (sixth), making them the league’s most efficient defense against the position.

Oklahoma City’s defensive prowess isn’t limited to locking down opposing point guards—it extends all the way to the perimeter. The Thunder owned the NBA’s top-ranked three-point defense, allowing opponents to convert just 34.2% from beyond the arc. That kind of efficiency can seriously diminish one of Tyrese Haliburton’s signature strengths: his ability to stretch the floor with his three-point shooting.

Add to all this that Haliburton was limping after Game 2, and said himself he’s dealing with a “lower leg thing," which could affect his explosiveness off the dribble. While the Pacers guard shook off the injury, it could be a factor both physically and mentally, facing a very active and tough Thunder defense.

Leg 3: Chet Holmgren Over 7.5 Reb (-154)

Chet Holmgren is poised for a strong night on the glass against a Pacers squad that has struggled all season to secure rebounds—especially against his position. Indiana ranks dead last in rebounds allowed to power forwards, surrendering a hefty 12.0 boards per 48 minutes. The issue isn’t limited to matchups at the four either—on the whole, Indiana finished just 22nd in overall rebounding, giving up 45.0 rebounds per game.

Though Holmgren didn’t face the Pacers this year, he made his presence felt in last season’s two matchups, averaging a double-double with 15 points and 10 rebounds, including a 13-board outing that easily cleared this number. That track record, combined with playoff production—8.3 rebounds per game, up from 8.0 RPG in the regular season—makes this spot even more appealing.

Even more encouraging: Holmgren has consistently hit the boards harder on the road, posting a strong 9.7 RPG in away games. With Game 3 in Indiana and the Pacers offering little interior resistance, the stage is set for Holmgren to crash the glass and deliver.

Over 7.5 rebounds is a play backed by both matchup flaws and postseason trends.

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