2025 NBA Playoffs: Timberwolves at Thunder WCF Game 5 SGP

After cashing two straight NBA SGP tickets in the Western Conference Finals, I’m on a mission to prove the saying, good things come in threes in a closeout game tonight. The Oklahoma City Thunder have won in blowout fashion, in tight contests, and every way imaginable in the regular season and playoffs.

The Minnesota Timberwolves had their chance in Game 4 at home, but OKC closed as they often do in a tight 128-126 finish. Can the T-wolves bounce back and extend, or is winning in a place where the Thunder have dropped just seven games all regular and postseason too high of a hill to climb?

Let’s jump in.

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Timberwolves vs Thunder Game 5 Info

Location: Paycom Center – Oklahoma City, OK
Where to Watch: ESPN
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Spread: Thunder -8.5 | Total: 220.5
Moneyline: Thunder -370 | Timberwolves +295

Leg 1: Thunder Alt Spread -4.5 (-192)

It was a bit of a foregone conclusion that OKC would bounce back in Game 4 after their worst loss of the season (143-101) in Minnesota in Game 3. Here we are following a tight road game, the T-wolves needed it in a big way. Julius Randle‘s inconsistency is a big reason why Minnesota didn’t come away with the series equalizer. The former New York Knick was a woeful 1-7 from the field, including three misses from deep for a 2025 personal playoff low of five points. This comes just days after a six-point performance in Game 2. While adjustments should be made and some bounce back is probable, having your second option disappear against a team with the firepower like the Thunder is a recipe for disaster in the playoffs.

While the rest of the team shot well (.619 eFG% despite Randle’s .143 FG%), what the T-wolves did at home does not appear sustainable at Paycom Center. Minnesota had eFG percentages of .440 in Game 1 and .477 in Game 2 on the road.

The Thunder have consistently won the turnover battle, with a 7.4 TOV%, compared to Minnesota’s 12.5% through the first four games. OKC is faster, longer, and more athletic, and it has a push-pace button that the T’wovles will have trouble keeping up with in a closeout game in front of a hungry Thunder crowd.

Minnesota was 3-1 in elimination games last season, including two wins on the road against Denver and Dallas, but OKC at home is a different beast. Knowing that, along with their solid road resume, which includes four away wins in these playoffs, albeit against much inferior teams in the Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks, Minnesota could very well hang in this game. With the T-wolves’ backs against the wall, teasing this line that is trending to -8, down to -4.5, gives us some breathing room.

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Leg 2: Shai-Gilgeous Alexander 2+ Steals (-114)

Winning the 2024-25 NBA scoring title (32.7 PPG) and leading the Thunder with 29.5 PPG in these playoffs often overshadows how important Shai-Gilgeous Alexander is on the defensive side of the ball. SGA is usually playing help D, reaching in to snatch the ball from a big man in the paint or deflecting a perimeter pass. The heavy NBA Finals MVP (-380) has already put up two games of three steals in this series and is averaging 2.0 steals per game over his past five. All this came off a regular season, where SGA was second in swipes with 1.7 per game.

Minnesota has the fifth-most turnovers in these playoffs at 14.0 per game, following a regular season where they ranked 18th in giving up the ball 13.7 times per game. The rock runs through Anthony Edwards for the Timberwolves, who ranked 17th in turnovers in the regular season at 3.2 per game. While Edwards has lowered that number to 2.6 per game in these playoffs, he’s turned the ball over nine times in the past two games.

The Timberwolves ranked in the middle of the pack in the regular season, allowing 2.0 steals per 48 minutes to opposing point guards, adding to SGA’s case.

Playing against a big, quick, active frontcourt like Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Jalen Williams is

Leg 3: Anthony Edwards Under 26.5 Points (-125)

Minnesota’s leading scorer in the regular season (27.6 PPG) and playoffs (25.8 PPG) has had his work cut out for him over the past two years against the Thunder. Anthony Edwards has gone under 20 points and 40% from the field twice in this series. This comes after a 22.3 PPG average in four regular-season meetings with OKC on 36% shooting through 2024-25 and 23.0 PPG in four matchups last season. The latter came before super-pest and former first and second team all-NBA defense player Alex Caruso came on board.

The Thunder’s D needs no introduction, but here goes. OKC ranked first in the NBA, holding opponents to 43.6% shooting and third giving up 107 PPG. Matchup-specific, they were second in defensive efficiency against shooting guards per 48 minutes. They also held the position to 21.7 PPG, the best mark in the NBA in 2024-25.

While Edwards has performed well in elimination games, averaging 27.6 PPG in his career, that number is down to 24.3 PPG in his past three games, facing an early offseason. Last year’s impressive elimination game performances came against much worse defenses in the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks.

I expect Mark Daigneault to throw a lot of different looks at Edwards and be content, making struggling shooters like Julius Randle try to beat him in a must-win game.

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