Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Monday, January 12
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Six NBA games headline Monday’s slate, and the prop board is giving bettors plenty to work with, from high-usage stars in competitive spreads to role players whose minutes and touches are being propped up by injuries.
After scanning every market in the data set, the best edges show up where hit rates align with opponent history and a clear context boost (injuries, role stability, or a soft defensive profile). The goal is not to chase ceilings, it’s to attack numbers that look a half-step behind the current reality.
Looking for more NBA betting content? Check out our NBA Picks and NBA Player Props for daily analysis.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors Matchup
Arena: Scotiabank Arena
Location: Toronto, ON
TV: NBA League Pass
Date: January 12, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Tyrese Maxey Over 27.5 Points
Odds: Consensus -115 | Best Price -110 @ BetMGM
Tyrese Maxey enters tonight’s matchup with an elite scoring profile at this number: he’s cleared 27.5 in 80% of his last five and 70% of his last ten, with a season average of 30.9 points. The road split supports it too, as Maxey is averaging 32.1 points away from home versus 29.7 at home. Even with Toronto grading as a tougher matchup in the defensive data, Maxey’s role has been stable enough to keep the floor intact; his points floor sits at 26.5 with a ceiling of 37.0. At the current price, we’re betting the over because the line is still sitting below his true scoring mean.
Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers Matchup
Arena: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Location: Indianapolis, IN
TV: NBA League Pass
Date: January 12, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Payton Pritchard Over 4.5 Rebounds
Odds: Consensus -152 | Best Price -152 @ Consensus
Payton Pritchard is a volume-rebound guard bet tonight, and the recent form is doing most of the heavy lifting: he’s hit Over 4.5 rebounds in 80% of his last five and 60% of his last ten, with a 4.5 season average that matches the line. The matchup environment helps, too. Indiana allows 4.4 rebounds per game to opposing guards (highest in the league by the data rank), and Pritchard’s road rebound rate is stronger at 5.0 versus 4.0 at home. The injury context matters as well: with Jayson Tatum (OUT) and Jaylen Brown (day-to-day), Boston’s rotation can condense in ways that keep Pritchard’s minutes and peripheral chances steady. At this number, the market is pricing a coin-flip rebound outcome, but the recent hit profile suggests it should be shaded higher.
Utah Jazz @ Cleveland Cavaliers Matchup
Arena: Rocket Arena
Location: Rocket Arena
TV: NBA League Pass
Date: January 12, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Jarrett Allen Over 8.5 Rebounds
Odds: Consensus -145 | Best Price -145 @ Consensus
Jarrett Allen is in the middle of a clean rebound run, clearing 8.5 in 100% of his last five and 70% of his previous ten. That’s especially notable because his season average is only 8.1, which signals the current role/usage is outperforming the season-long baseline. The home split is stable (8.1 at home), and the floor/ceiling band supports a playable range with a rebound ceiling of 10.25. While Allen’s opponent history is mixed (just a 50% hit rate in four games against Utah), the current streak and consistent minutes make this a market to follow the over. The number is still sitting at a line he’s been clearing nightly.
The Betting Edge
The best prop cards are built on numbers that lag behind role and context, not on highlight hunting. Tonight’s slate offers a few of those spots, especially where recent hit rates and matchup environment overlap.
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