NBA Best Bets: Top 2 Betting Picks for Tuesday, January 13

Seven NBA games on the board tonight, and the slate has a definite personality: a couple of coin-flip spreads where the market is basically begging you to pick a side, and a couple of big numbers where you’re betting game script more than “who’s better.” We’ve also got schedule landmines everywhere – New Orleans and Denver are both on the front end of a back-to-back, Chicago is on the front end of a back-to-back, and San Antonio is in Game 3 of 3 on the road with three games in four days. That’s the stuff that turns “pretty good” teams into dead legs.

I’m not firing at everything. I’m picking my two best against-the-spread spots where the data stacks cleanly, and the number still gives us room to breathe.

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Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans Matchup

• Arena: Smoothie King Center
• Location: New Orleans, LA
• Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
• Date: January 13, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET

Nuggets vs. Pelicans Betting Odds

• Spread: Denver Nuggets -2.5 (-110) | New Orleans Pelicans +2.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Denver Nuggets -143 | New Orleans Pelicans +119

Nuggets vs. Pelicans Kalshi Odds

• Chance: Denver Nuggets 54% | New Orleans Pelicans 46%

THE PICK: Denver Nuggets -2.5 (3 units)

This is my favorite kind of bet: ugly on paper because of the injury list, but clean in the numbers that actually decide covers. Start with form: New Orleans is 1-9 in their last ten with a brutal 2-8 against the spread, while Denver is 6-4 against the spread in their previous ten. Then stack the schedule angle that matters tonight: both teams are on the front end of a back-to-back, but New Orleans has been a disaster in that exact spot, 5-18 straight up (21.74% win rate) with an average margin of -10.7 in front-end back-to-backs since 2025, and they’re giving up 119.61 points per game in those games. Denver, meanwhile, is basically neutral-to-positive in the same situation: 11-11 with an average margin of +1.55 on the front end, scoring 123.09 and allowing 121.55. That’s a massive contextual gap for a line sitting at -2.5. And yes, Denver traveled 1081.3 miles to New Orleans, but New Orleans also traveled 533.3 miles and is missing a pile of rotation pieces (Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Jose Alvarado, Dejounte Murray all listed as out). If this is going to be a grind, I want the side that’s been covering and the side that doesn’t routinely faceplant in this schedule pocket. To me, this number should be closer to Denver -4 than -2.5.

San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Matchup

• Arena: Paycom Center
• Location: Oklahoma City, OK
• Where to Watch: NBC Peacock
• Date: January 13, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET

Spurs vs. Thunder Betting Odds

• Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5 (-115) | San Antonio Spurs +7.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Oklahoma City Thunder -291 | San Antonio Spurs +235

Spurs vs. Thunder Kalshi Odds

• Chance: San Antonio Spurs 30% | Oklahoma City Thunder 69%

THE PICK: Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5 (2 units)

I’m stepping in front of Oklahoma City’s ugly recent against-the-spread run (3-7 ATS last ten) because the situational setup is screaming for a Thunder blowtorch. San Antonio is in Game 3 of 3 on the road, and the schedule context flags them as high frequency: three games in the last four days, plus 694.3 miles of travel into Oklahoma City. Historically, in those high-frequency windows, the Spurs are basically a coin flip (15-17, 46.88% win rate) with an average margin of -2.38 – competitive, but that’s the kind of profile that turns into a double-digit loss when you run into a rested home team with real shot-making. Oklahoma City, on the other hand, is at home with no travel and is 7-3 straight up in its last ten. And I’m not ignoring the head-to-head sting: San Antonio just beat them in Oklahoma City on December 25 as a +10.0 dog. That’s precisely why I like this spot – the market is pricing in “Spurs can hang,” but the schedule says this is the night their legs finally cash out. Kalshi has Oklahoma City at 69% to win; I’m betting the win comes with margin.

The Betting Edge

• 3 units: Denver Nuggets -2.5
• 2 units: Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5

I’m not asking you to bet seven games – I’m telling you the two spots where the data lines up and the number still cooperates. Ride with me, or fade me, but don’t sit in the middle and pretend you’re “being responsible.” That’s not how you beat this market.

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