NBA Best Bets: Top 2 Betting Picks for Monday, January 12
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Six NBA games on the board tonight, and the slate has a definite personality: a couple of massive numbers (Cleveland laying double-digits), a couple of injury-riddled “name brand” spots (Boston and Indiana), and two games where the schedule is doing the heavy lifting (Philadelphia at Toronto, Brooklyn at Dallas). I’m not here to bet every game – I’m here to bet the right games, and two matchups have the cleanest alignment of price + situation + recent performance.
Quick drive-by on the rest of the slate: Utah at Cleveland is a monster spread where Utah has actually been a sneaky cover team in big-number games recently (covered +19 at Oklahoma City on January seven), but Cleveland’s recent scoring is nuclear (146 on January 10) and I’m not paying -13 in a game that can turn into a fourth-quarter nap. Boston at Indiana is the classic “Boston is better, but the injury report is loud” spot – Jayson Tatum is, of course, out, Jaylen Brown is day-to-day, and Indiana is missing Tyrese Haliburton and Bennedict Mathurin – and I’d rather not guess which version of Boston’s offense shows up. That leaves me with the two spots where the schedule and the market are basically holding hands and pointing to the same side.
Brooklyn Nets @ Dallas Mavericks Matchup
Arena: American Airlines Center
Location: Dallas, TX
Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
Date: January 12, 2026
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Nets vs. Mavericks Betting Odds
Spread: Dallas Mavericks -4.5 (-105) | Brooklyn Nets +4.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Dallas Mavericks -163 | Brooklyn Nets +137
Nets vs. Mavericks Kalshi Odds
Chance: Brooklyn Nets 40% | Dallas Mavericks 59%
THE PICK: Dallas Mavericks -4.5 (3 units)
This is the cleanest schedule-and-fatigue setup on the slate, and I’m not overthinking it. Brooklyn is on the back end of a back-to-back (played January 11), traveled 419.9 miles into Dallas, and the schedule profile screams wear: three games in four days, plus it’s Game two of a three-game road stand. That’s not just “tired legs” – the data says Brooklyn has been flat-out bad in this exact context: on the second night of back-to-backs since 2025, the Nets are 6-15 with an average margin of -12.48, scoring 102.86 and allowing 115.33. Meanwhile, Dallas is on one day of rest (last played January 10) and opens a home stand (Game 1 of 4), which is precisely when teams tend to bring real energy. And yes, Dallas has been a mess lately (2-7-1 against the spread last ten, just 22.2% covers), but that’s also why we’re getting a reasonable number instead of something inflated – and Brooklyn’s own last ten isn’t precisely a “buy” either (4-6 straight up). I’m betting the spot: rested home team versus a road team with a documented back-to-back cliff. Dallas -4.5 is a professional play.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors Matchup
Arena: Scotiabank Arena
Location: Toronto, ON
Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
Date: January 12, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET
76ers vs. Raptors Betting Odds
Spread: Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 (-110) | Toronto Raptors +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Philadelphia 76ers -155 | Toronto Raptors +129
76ers vs. Raptors Kalshi Odds
Chance: Philadelphia 76ers 58% | Toronto Raptors 42%
THE PICK: Toronto Raptors +3.5 (2 units)
I’m taking the points with Toronto because the market is asking me to lay -3.5 with a road team in a brutal schedule pocket, and the Raptors have been the better bet lately. Start with the form: Toronto is 6-3 against the spread in their last ten (66.7%), while Philadelphia is 5-4 against the spread in their previous nine tracked (55.6%). Now layer in the weirdness: these teams literally just played last night (Toronto won 116-115 on January 11), and tonight both are again on the back end of a back-to-back with zero days rest. In that kind of “same building, same opponent, no rest” spot, I’m not paying a premium to the road favorite – especially when Toronto’s recent results have been consistently competitive (7-3 last ten straight up) and Philadelphia’s schedule profile in compressed windows is ugly: in “three games in four days” spots since 2025, the 76ers are 7-19 (26.92%) with an average margin of -6.96. Toronto isn’t some schedule-proof machine either (they’re 12-20 in those same high-frequency windows), but the difference is the number: I’m not asking Toronto to dominate – I’m asking them to keep it within two buckets in a rematch they just won. Give me the +3.5.
The Betting Edge
- Dallas Mavericks -4.5 (3 units)
- Toronto Raptors +3.5 (2 units)
I’m riding the schedule hammer in Dallas, and I’m grabbing the points in Toronto in a rematch spot where the favorite is paying a tax it hasn’t earned. Ride with me or fade me – either way, we’re not guessing tonight. We’re betting the data.
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