NBA Prediction Kalshi Markets Movement & Wrap for Tuesday, January 13
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
The biggest story in Tuesday’s NBA prediction markets centers on a sudden volatility injection into the Defensive Player of the Year race. Following news of Rudy Gobert’s suspension for accumulating flagrant points, traders aggressively pivoted toward his primary competition. While Gobert remains in the mix, the market saw a massive influx of volume on Victor Wembanyama, reshaping the pricing landscape for the league’s top defensive honor.
Beyond the awards markets, confidence in the Eastern Conference playoff picture is shifting, with two prominent franchises seeing their postseason probabilities tumble on heavy trading.
Top Market Movers
Victor Wembanyama (Defensive Player of the Year)
The San Antonio center saw the day’s highest volume in the awards sector, with over 12,000 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. Wembanyama’s odds surged from an open of 15 cents to settle around a 21-cent ask. This 33 percent jump correlates directly with the news of Gobert’s suspension, as traders speculate that missed time could jeopardize the Minnesota center’s campaign. Despite the suspension, Gobert’s price remains sticky with a wide spread between 20 and 24 cents, but the momentum is clearly with the Spurs’ phenom.
Anthony Edwards (Clutch Player of the Year)
The most explosive price movement of the day belongs to Anthony Edwards in the Clutch Player of the Year market. The Minnesota guard opened the day at 21 cents and rocketed to a 37-cent close, a massive 76 percent increase. Traders are buying heavily into the narrative that Edwards is the league’s premier closer, pushing him well ahead of competitors like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (30 cents) and Cade Cunningham (16 cents).
Naz Reid (Sixth Man of the Year)
Minnesota is driving action across multiple boards today. Naz Reid saw his stock climb from 21 cents to 32 cents, a 52 percent increase. The market is pricing in a two-man race between Reid and Malik Monk, but the momentum has swung firmly toward the Timberwolves’ big man in the last session.
Playoff Probability Shifts
Chicago Bulls (Playoff Qualification)
The market is rapidly losing faith in Chicago’s postseason aspirations. The Bulls’ playoff chances cratered today, dropping from 20 cents to an 11-cent close. This 45 percent decline represents a significant liquidation of confidence, suggesting traders view their current roster construction or recent performance as insufficient for a top-eight push in the East.
Milwaukee Bucks (Playoff Qualification)
While still favored to make the postseason, Milwaukee is showing signs of weakness. Their qualification price slipped from 40 cents to 34 cents on the day. While not a catastrophic drop, a 15 percent decline for a team with championship aspirations suggests bettors are growing wary of the Bucks’ consistency or health.
Volume and Orderbook Highlights
Rookie of the Year Liquidity
The Rookie of the Year market remains the most liquid awards category. Cooper Flagg continues to dominate the conversation with nearly 400,000 total contracts traded. Despite a high price point of 80 cents on the bid and 86 cents on the ask, the market saw over 12,000 contracts change hands in the last 24 hours. The spread remains somewhat wide at six cents, indicating that while conviction is high, sellers are demanding a premium to part with their “Yes” shares.
MVP Market Efficiency
The MVP race has tightened into a highly efficient market between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic. Gilgeous-Alexander sits at a tight 74-cent bid and 75-cent ask, signaling extreme market consensus on his current standing. Conversely, Jokic has slipped to 10 cents, with traders seemingly cooling on his chances to capture another trophy this season.
Notable Markets Worth Watching
Most Improved Player Volatility
Keep an eye on the Most Improved Player market, which is currently exhibiting chaotic pricing. Keyonte George surged 55 percent to 14 cents, while Jalen Johnson climbed 27 percent to 28 cents. This market lacks a dominant frontrunner, creating a high-variance environment in which small narrative shifts are driving double-digit percentage price swings.
Atlanta’s Playoff Push
While Chicago and Milwaukee slid, the Atlanta Hawks saw quiet bullish activity. Their playoff odds ticked up to 60 cents on the bid with over 2,000 contracts traded today. The market is slowly pricing Atlanta as a more reliable postseason bet than the crumbling lower tier of the Eastern Conference.
Closing Thoughts
Tuesday’s activity highlights a market that is reacting swiftly to player availability news, particularly in the DPOY race. For tomorrow, monitor whether the support for Wembanyama sustains or if value bettors step in to buy the dip on Gobert. Additionally, the declining confidence in Chicago’s playoff hopes suggests the market may soon turn to trade-deadline speculation about the Bulls’ roster.
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