Best NBA Bets Jan. 17: Trends, Predictions & Picks for Tonight
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
We were so close to another perfect day yesterday – the Rockets covered -4.5 at the last second with a free throw to seal it. Still, we’re a whopping 21-10 (67.7%) this month, and the momentum is real. I’m not letting off the gas.
Nine games on the board for January 17, and there are some schedule trends I think have real edge baked in. Let’s get into the two spots where the numbers line up.
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THE PICK: Denver Nuggets -12.5 (3 units)
Where to Watch the Washington Wizards vs. Denver Nuggets Tonight?
- Arena: Ball Arena
- Location: Denver, CO
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 17, 2026
- Time: 09:00 PM ET
NBA Betting Odds Today: Wizards vs. Nuggets Moneyline, Spread & Kalshi Probabilities
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Implied Prob. | Kalshi Chance |
| Denver Nuggets | -12.5 (-108) | -632 | 86.33% | 78% |
| Washington Wizards | +12.5 (-112) | +461 | 17.82% | 24% |
The Denver Nuggets are the cleanest “stack the angles" play on the slate. Start with the schedule: The Washington Wizards are on the back end of a back-to-back, traveling 886.0 miles to Denver, and it’s their third game in four days, as well as game four of four on the road. That’s a brutal stretch. The numbers back it up: Washington on the second night of back-to-backs is 1-20 with an average margin of -18.0, and when they’re playing three-plus games in four days, they’re 4-31 with an average margin of -16.03. Meanwhile, Denver is sitting on two days rest, and their home-stand profile is elite: in home stands of three-plus games, they’re 23-8 (74.19%). Even with Nikola Jokic still listed as out, the broader form is strong – Denver is 7-3 against the spread in their last ten. This number is significant, but the spot is bigger: tired road team, brutal schedule, and a rested home team that’s been cashing tickets.
THE PICK: Indiana Pacers +12.5 (2 units)
Where to Watch the Indiana Pacers vs. Detroit Pistons Tonight?
- Arena: Little Caesars Arena
- Location: Detroit, MI
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 17, 2026
- Time: 07:30 PM ET
NBA Betting Odds Today: Pacers vs. Pistons Moneyline, Spread & Kalshi Probabilities
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Implied Probability | Kalshi Chance |
| Detroit Pistons | -12.5 (-110) | -665 | 86.92% | 83% |
| Indiana Pacers | +12.5 (-111) | +479 | 17.27% | 16% |
I’m taking the points, and I’m doing it with my eyes open: The Indiana Pacers are on the back end of a back-to-back and traveled 240.4 miles. That’s the “why not" side of the handicap. The “why yes" is the number and the profile: Indiana has been a covering machine lately at 7-3 against the spread in their last ten, while the Detroit Pistons are just 4-6 against the spread in that same window. And the head-to-head data is loud: Indiana is 8-2 against the spread in the last ten meetings. Detroit is a young team having a breakout season, which means the Pacers will be motivated – watching an in-division rival surge like this is precisely the type of game where you prove something on the road. That being said, laying -12.5 against a team that consistently plays inside numbers and has owned this matchup at the window is how you donate. I’ll take the Pacers to hang around and make Detroit earn every point of margin.
The Betting Edge
- Three units: Denver Nuggets -12.5
- Two units: Indiana Pacers +12.5
That’s the card: one fatigue smash spot in Denver, one “too many points" buy-low in Detroit. Ride with me or fade me – don’t sit in the middle and complain when the market does what it always does.
Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 17.
