Daily NBA Prediction Markets Wrapped: Ja Morant Headlines Trade Market
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
The loudest signal in today’s Kalshi NBA board was trade and transaction risk bleeding into team outlook markets. The sharpest example was the Memphis trade complex, where “Ja Morant traded by Memphis before Feb. six” ripped higher on heavy flow, and it showed up alongside a softer Memphis playoff qualification price.
At the same time, the market kept leaning into Oklahoma City as the league’s center of gravity. The Thunder’s Western Conference title and championship markets both traded with tight spreads and deep liquidity, a sign that traders are comfortable warehousing large positions at these levels.
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Top Kalshi movers that mattered
Ja Morant trade odds detonated
Ja Morant to be traded by Memphis before Feb. six: up from 25c to 65c on the candle, a 192.0% jump, with 14,255 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
The market is still active at 65c bid and 69c ask, and the move came with real volume, not thin print.
Anthony Davis next team market repriced hard
Anthony Davis to stay with Dallas or retire (next team market): up from 32c to 85c on the candle, a 178.12% surge, with 8,716 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
The market is now 85c bid, 89c ask, a relatively wide spread for a headline market, suggesting disagreement on how “sticky” the current situation is.
Atlanta’s playoff qualification jumped, but the spread is a warning
Atlanta’s playoff qualification odds: up from 46c to 50c on the bid, and the candle closed at 56c after opening 46c, a 21.74% move.
The current market is 50c bid, 56c ask, a six-cent spread that signals uncertainty and potential whipsaw risk despite meaningful activity (287 contracts in the last twenty-four hours).
Milwaukee playoff qualification quietly ripped higher
Milwaukee’s playoff qualification odds: the candle closed 40c after opening 29c, a 37.93% jump, with 585 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
The market is still relatively illiquid and wide at 27c bid, 37c ask, which makes the headline move less “confirmed” than the candle suggests.
Awards board: Most Improved and Defensive Player of the Year diverged sharply
Deni Avdija to win Most Improved Player: candle up from 49c to 66c, a 34.69% jump, now 60c bid, 62c ask.
Rudy Gobert to win Defensive Player of the Year: candle down from 27c to 19c, a -29.63% drop, now 20c bid, 24c ask.
Chet Holmgren to win Defensive Player of the Year: candle up from 39c to 43c, a 10.26% gain, now 50c bid, 52c ask, with 10,383 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
Kalshi Volume and orderbook highlights
Oklahoma City remains the liquidity hub
Oklahoma City to win the title: 20,329 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours, with a tight 41c bid, 42c ask. The orderbook shows heavy size at 41c on the yes side and deep no-side interest, consistent with two-way, institutional-style trading.
Oklahoma City to win the Western Conference: 410 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours, but the bigger tell is the depth, with large size posted on both sides around the mid-fifties. The market is extremely efficient at 53c bid, 54c ask.
Trade markets are driving the day’s information flow
Ja Morant trade market led the entire dataset on “what changed today” plus meaningful volume (14,255 in the last twenty-four hours).
Secondary trade flow showed up in:
Daniel Gafford to be traded by Dallas before Feb. six: candle from 35c to 50c (42.86%), with 1,278 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours, now 25c bid, 32c ask. The widespread suggests the close may have more momentum than consensus.
Klay Thompson to be traded by Dallas before Feb. six: candle from 37c to 45c (21.62%), now 40c bid, 46c ask.
Wide spreads are clustering in fragile team-outlook markets
Several playoff qualification markets are posting spreads that are too wide to treat as “clean” probabilities:
– Miami playoff qualification: 69c bid, 86c ask (seventeen-cent spread) even after a candle that closed 84c from 70c (20.0%). That is a classic sign of low-confidence pricing despite a big move.
– Los Angeles Clippers playoff qualification: 31c bid, 36c ask, with the candle closing 32c from 39c (-17.95%). The move is real, but the market is not tight enough to call it settled.
Notable Kalshi markets worth watching
Memphis playoff qualification is sitting at 14c bid, 19c ask after a candle from 18c to 19c (5.56%). With the Morant trade market now priced as more likely than not, this playoff market is the one to monitor for follow-through.
San Antonio’s Western Conference title odds fell hard on the candle, from 12c to 9c (-25.0%), while San Antonio to win the title held flat on the candle at 10c to 10c. That split is not automatically wrong, but it is a clear “check the wiring” spot for traders who model conference-versus-title relationships.
League leader markets saw meaningful repricing at the top:
Stephen Curry to lead the league in three-pointers made per game: candle up from 76c to 81c (6.58%), now 75c bid, 78c ask.
Nikola Jokic to lead the league in rebounds per game: candle down from 44c to 39c (-11.36%), now 39c bid, 44c ask.
Prediction Markets Trading Edge
The market’s biggest information shock was transaction-driven, led by Ja Morant trade odds exploding to the mid-sixties with real volume.
Team-outlook markets with wide spreads, especially Miami, Milwaukee, and Atlanta playoff qualification, are flashing uncertainty rather than consensus.
Oklahoma City remains the most efficiently priced and most heavily traded futures complex, with tight spreads and deep two-way books that traders should continue to use as the benchmark for cross-market consistency tomorrow.
