Daily NBA Prediction Markets Wrapped: Kalshi Market Movers
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
The biggest story in Kalshi’s NBA board on January 14 was a sharp repricing in the trade complex, led by Anthony Davis. Traders pushed “Will Anthony Davis be traded by Dallas before February 6, 2026" up to 32c-34c, with the contract’s price history showing a jump from an open of 15c to a close of 34c (+126.67%). That move also came with real participation: 22,860 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
At the same time, the market leaned the other way on “Anthony Davis next team: Stays with Dallas or retires," which slid from 89c open to 78c close (-12.36%). The two markets are not perfect mirrors, but the direction is consistent: more trade risk is being priced in.
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Top Kalshi Movers That Mattered
Anthony Davis Traded By February 6: Up to 32c-34c, with price history moving from 15c to 34c (+126.67%). This was also one of the most active markets on the board (22,860 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours), suggesting the move was driven by sustained two-way flow rather than a single print.
Anthony Davis Next Team (Stays With Dallas Or Retires): Down to 60c-62c, with price history falling from 89c to 78c (-12.36%). With the trade contract rising, this “stays" leg-weakening is the cleanest cross-market signal in today’s data.
Portland’s Playoff Qualification Odds: Down to 22c-28c, with price history collapsing from 37c open to 22c close (-40.54%). Even with only nine contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours, the magnitude of the move matters because it resets the baseline for a widely followed season-long market.
New York’s Championship Odds: Down to 5c-6c, with price history moving from 7c open to 5c close (-28.57%). This is a meaningful percentage drop in a liquid futures market (6,824 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours), not a thin outlier.
San Antonio’s Championship Odds: Down to 8c-10c, with price history moving from 10c open to 8c close (-20.0%). This contract also stayed highly active (7,600 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours), so the drift lower looks like broad repricing rather than noise.
Kalshi Volume And Order Book Highlights
- Anthony Davis’s trade market was the clear volume leader among the events set, with 22,860 contracts traded over the last 24 hours. The current spread is relatively tight at 32c-34c, which typically signals active market-making around the new consensus level.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo’s next team: Stays with Milwaukee or retires also drew heavy attention (10,581 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours), but price history moved the other direction, from 89c open to 73c close (-17.98%). The current 77c-81c market shows traders still demanding a meaningful spread for liquidity.
- In futures, Oklahoma City’s championship odds remain the liquidity center (1,367,602 total volume, 4,851 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours) with a tight 42c-43c spread, and massive displayed depth on the yes side at 42c (100,927 units).
- Several All-Star selection markets show wide spreads, suggesting uncertainty or thin two-way pricing. Example: Pascal Siakam to be selected as an All Star is 32c-79c, and Michael Porter Jr. to be chosen as an All Star is 40c-62c.
Kalshi Notable Markets Worth Watching
- Ja Morant traded by Memphis before February 6: The contract is priced at 74c-75c, and price history shows an open at 66c and a close at 78c (+18.18%). With 7,010 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours, this is another trade market with enough flow to keep moving.
- Oklahoma City Western Conference one seed: The contract is 80c-92c, and price history shows 90c open to 78c close (-13.33%). The spread is extremely wide for a top-of-board team outcome, and it traded 298 contracts in the last twenty-four hours, so it is a volatility candidate if more volume arrives.
- Cade Cunningham Clutch Player of the Year: Price history shows 22c open to 42c close (+90.91%), but the current market is back to 19c-24c. That gap between the last close and the current bid-ask is a classic “whipsaw" profile worth monitoring for follow-through.
Kalshi Market Edge
- The trade board drove today’s headline move, led by Anthony Davis trade risk repricing to 32c-34c on 22,860 contracts of twenty-four-hour volume.
- Futures saw meaningful downside in several mid-tier title paths, including New York’s championship odds (7c to 5c close) and San Antonio’s championship odds (10c to 8c close).
- Watch for continued spillover from trade pricing into team futures, especially where spreads are wide and depth is thin.
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Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 14.
