Daily NBA Prediction Markets Wrapped: Kalshi Market Movers

Atlanta’s playoff qualification market just took a real hit. The contract dropped from 53c to 43c (-18.87%), and it did it with meaningful activity behind it. That kind of move usually doesn’t happen on air.

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Top Kalshi NBA Movers That Mattered

Atlanta Hawks Playoff Qualification: dropped from 53c to 43c (-18.87%). The market also printed 3,136 contracts in 24-hour trading volume, so this was not a sleepy repricing.
Joel Embiid All-Star Selection: collapsed from 64c to 5c (-92.19%). That is one of the sharpest single-day moves on the board, with 3,735 contracts traded in the last 24 hours.
Alperen Sengun All-Star Selection: fell from 94c to 11c (-88.3%) on 10,257 contracts of 24-hour volume. Traders clearly treated this as a binary update.
Kawhi Leonard All-Star Selection: dropped from 86c to 16c (-81.4%) with 1,633 contracts traded in the last 24 hours.
Michael Porter Jr. All-Star Selection: slid from 74c to 26c (-64.86%) on 7,309 contracts of 24-hour volume.
Tyrese Maxey Points Per Game League Leader: crashed from 9c to 2c (-77.78%). The contract traded lightly today, but the repricing was decisive.
Cameron Boozer First Overall Pick: cut from 20c to 10c (-50.0%). Meanwhile, Darryn Peterson moved the other way in the same market.
Darryn Peterson First Overall Pick: rose from 57c to 61c (+7.02%), tightening his grip on the top of that board.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Next Team – Chicago: surged from 3c to 14c (+366.67%) on massive attention, with 391,145 contracts traded in the last 24 hours.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Next Team – Stays With Milwaukee Or Retires: jumped from 45c to 57c (+26.67%) with 154,747 contracts traded in the last 24 hours.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Traded By Milwaukee: fell from 52c to 46c (-11.54%), a notable counter-move versus the “next team" volatility.
Domantas Sabonis Traded By Sacramento: dropped from 65c to 45c (-30.77%) on 2,302 contracts of 24-hour volume.
Lauri Markkanen Traded By Utah: collapsed from 18c to 2c (-88.89%).
Minnesota Timberwolves Western Conference Title: rose from 6c to 8c (+33.33%) on heavy interest, with 13,169 contracts traded in the last 24 hours.
Orlando Magic Eastern Conference Title: fell from 8c to 6c (-25.0%).
Denver Nuggets Western Conference Title: moved from 18c to 20c (+11.11%).
Boston Celtics Eastern Conference Title: slipped from 18c to 17c (-5.56%).
Cleveland Cavaliers Eastern Conference Title: dropped from 17c to 16c (-5.88%).
Naz Reid Sixth Man of the Year: jumped from 35c to 47c (+34.29%), one of the cleanest award-market breakouts today.
Keldon Johnson Sixth Man of the Year: fell from 21c to 12c (-42.86%).
Keyonte George Most Improved Player: dumped from 22c to 9c (-59.09%).
Kon Knueppel Rookie of the Year: fell from 21c to 16c (-23.81%).
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander MVP: slipped from 73c to 71c (-2.74%), while still sitting at 72c last price.
Nikola Jokic MVP: dropped from 19c to 18c (-5.26%).

Kalshi NBA Volume And Order Book Highlights

Oklahoma City Thunder Championship Odds stayed extremely liquid, with 9,020 contracts traded in the last 24 hours and 769,399 open interest.
Denver Nuggets Championship Odds led the futures board in activity, with 20,997 contracts traded in the last 24 hours and 911,608 open interest.
San Antonio Spurs Championship Odds were even busier, with 25,171 contracts traded in the last 24 hours and 2,296,659 open interest.
New York Knicks Eastern Conference Title saw standout engagement, with 11,279 contracts traded in the last 24 hours.
Giannis Antetokounmpo’s next team markets dominated the entire slate by volume:

- Chicago at 391,145 contracts traded in the last 24 hours
- Golden State at 159,117 contracts traded in the previous 24 hours
- Stays with Milwaukee or retires at 154,747 contracts traded during the last 24 hours

Wide spreads signaled uncertainty in several headline markets:

Oklahoma City Western Conference one seed showed a 13-cent spread (76c bid, 89c ask).
New York Eastern Conference one seed showed a 14-cent spread (6c bid, 20c ask).
Boston Eastern Conference one seed showed a 13-cent spread (6c bid, 19c ask).
Peyton Watson Most Improved Player was extremely wide at 29 cents (4c bid, 33c ask), with 0 volume and 0 open interest.

Kalshi NBA Notable Markets Worth Watching

Giannis Antetokounmpo trade vs. next team pricing: The market has pushed “stays with Milwaukee or retires" up to 54c bid, while “traded by Milwaukee" sits at 46c bid. Both contracts moved lower on the trade side and higher on the stay side today.
Oklahoma City Thunder title stack: Western Conference title at 51c bid versus championship at 39c bid. That gap is where traders will keep shopping for relative value.
Los Angeles Lakers win totals: forty-plus wins ripped from 73c to 98c (+34.25%). The contract is now priced like a near lock.
Atlanta Hawks playoff qualification: Even after the selloff, the market is still active. 3,136 contracts traded in the last 24 hours keeps it on watch.
Draft first pick race: Darryn Peterson is 61c, while AJ Dybantsa is 30c and Cameron Boozer is 12c. Boozer’s -50.0% move is the headline.

Kalshi NBA Market Edge

The most significant moves were not in titles. They were in All-Star selection and trade markets, where binary updates hit hardest.
Giannis Antetokounmpo’s markets are the liquidity center right now. Volume is so high that smaller edges can get absorbed fast.
Wide bid-ask spreads are still everywhere in one-seed and fringe markets. That is where limit orders matter most.
Watch for follow-through in Atlanta playoff qualification. Today’s -18.87% move came with real volume.

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Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 2.