Kalshi Market Report: Giannis Trade Hype & Major Odds Shifts (Jan. 30)

Kalshi’s NBA board on January 30 was dominated by one theme. Giannis Antetokounmpo trade speculation exploded into the highest-volume story of the day. The market repriced both “will he be traded" and “where is he next" in a way that signals real uncertainty.

The other big signal came from awards and league-leader markets. Chet Holmgren took a sharp hit in Defensive Player of the Year. Nikola Jokic also saw meaningful downside in two league-leader categories.

Dunk on the Prediction Markets with SportsGrid’s Free NBA Picks and Player Props Markets.

Top Kalshi NBA Movers That Mattered

- Giannis Antetokounmpo trade (Milwaukee) jumped from 25c to 46c. It also printed 20,571 contracts in 24-hour trading volume. This is a major repricing into the February 6 deadline.

- Giannis Antetokounmpo next team – stays with Milwaukee or retires fell from 75c to 50c. It led the entire slate with 168,170 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. The market is no longer treating “stays" as the base case.

- Giannis Antetokounmpo next team – Golden State surged from 3c to 15c. It also posted 197,763 contracts in 24-hour trading volume. That is a massive flow into a single destination outcome.

- Boston’s Eastern Conference title odds dropped from 24c to 18c. That is a seven-cent move in a major futures market.

- Boston’s championship odds fell from 8c to 4c. That is a four-cent move and a 37.5% drop on the day.

- Chet Holmgren Defensive Player of the Year odds slid from 47c to 41c. That is a six-cent drop and a 17.02% decline.

- Nikola Jokic assists-per-game leader odds fell from 63c to 47c. That is a sixteen-cent drop and a 20.63% decline.

- Rudy Gobert rebounds-per-game leader odds dropped from 14c to 3c. That is an eleven-cent move and a 50% decline.

- Portland’s playoff qualification odds fell from 28c to 22c. That is a six-cent drop and a 28.57% decline.

- Charlotte’s playoff qualification odds jumped from 22c to 26c. That is a four-cent move and a 54.55% increase.

Kalshi NBA Volume And Order Book Highlights

- Giannis Antetokounmpo next team – Golden State led the board with 197,763 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. The market also showed a two-cent spread (15c bid, 17c ask), which is tight for a destination market.

- Giannis Antetokounmpo next team – stays with Milwaukee or retires traded 168,170 contracts in the last 24 hours. It also held a one-cent spread (50c bid, 51c ask), signaling high conviction liquidity.

- Oklahoma City’s championship odds remained a liquidity hub with 33,605 contracts traded in the last 24 hours and 763,762 open interest. The spread was tight at one cent (39c bid, 40c ask).

- San Antonio’s championship odds posted 37,457 contracts in 24-hour trading volume and 2,260,058 open interest. That is one of the deepest position stacks on the slate.

- Minnesota’s championship odds saw 53,363 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. The spread stayed tight at one cent (3c bid, 4c ask), despite the low price level.

- Atlanta’s playoff qualification odds traded 6,358 contracts in the last 24 hours. The spread was four cents (55c bid, 59c ask), leaving room for volatility.

Kalshi NBA Notable Markets Worth Watching

- Giannis Antetokounmpo trade (Milwaukee) is now priced at 46c to 47c with the deadline on February 6. The market is still tight, but the direction is clear.

- Anthony Davis next team – stays with Dallas or retires fell from 86c to 74c. It also traded 914 contracts in the last 24 hours. That is a meaningful drift for a “stays" outcome.

- Karl-Anthony Towns trade (New York) collapsed from 63c to 25c. The spread is extremely wide at 25c bid, 92c ask, which signals uncertainty and thin pricing.

- LeBron James next team – Cleveland jumped from 22c to 35c. It also traded 668 contracts in the last 24 hours, with a six-cent spread (35c bid, 41c ask).

- Kon Knueppel Rookie of the Year odds moved up from 20c to 21c and closed at 22c. It also led the awards board in 15,750 contracts traded in the last 24 hours.